Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to slip, S&P 500 pulls back from record high + Coles, Fortescue FY25 earnings

ASX 200 futures are down 19pts (-0.21%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks pulled back after Friday's record setting session

• Local sharemarket set to ease after fading a massive 0.97% rally on Monday

• Another heavy day for FY25 results, with notable reporters including Austal, Coles, Fortescue and more

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 trended lower, closer near worst levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks broadly lower, closed near session lows after the big Friday rally, where indices rallied more than 1.5%

• A relatively uneventful session, with no major directional drivers

• Scrutiny surrounding dovish hype, with concerns centred around lingering tariff-drive inflation, labour market softening, rate-cut timing and political pressure

• Last Friday saw the largest cross-market surge since April, with tech/growth underperformance while small caps, cyclical and value stocks rallied, according to Goldman Sachs

• Nvidia next big risk point for markets following Fed Chair Powell's hint on rate cut (BBG)

• China equity market bubble risk grows as bull run defies economy concerns (BBG)

• Oil prices rise amid fears of Russian supply disruptions (RT)

STOCKS

• Trump says he wants to make more investments into US companies similar to stake in Intel (RT)

• Intel warns US stake could potentially harm international sales and limit ability to win future grants (RT)

• Berkshire Hathaway not looking to buy a train company contradicting prior reports (YF)

• Thoma Bravo to acquire Verint Systems in $2bn deal, a major bet on AI (RT)

TARIFFS

• Higher tariffs on furniture to be announced within next 50 days, Trump says (CNN)

• Trump says China has to give the US magnets or 'we have to charge them 200% tariff or something' (USN)

• EU defends US trade deal to avoid costly conflict (BBG)

• Germany urged to seek new trade partners amid US tariffs (RT)

• Canada drops US tariffs, businesses welcome trade relief (CBC)

CENTRAL BANKS

• St. Louis Fed's Musalem cautions on September rate cut (RT)

• ECB shifts focus to economic monitoring, pauses rate cuts (BBG)

ECONOMY

No major economic announcements.

ASX TODAY

Today's massive day for earnings, and we’ll be covering all the key results as they drop. Follow our Live Blog for the latest company announcements, consensus numbers, market moves, and economic updates.

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Pullback dynamics: Markets are taking a breather after Friday's record setting rally (both Aus and US). Price action was rather poor on Monday, with the ASX 200 closing 0.06% higher, down from session highs of 0.97%. Let's see where the dust settles.

• Day twos: As always, let's see how yesterday's winners and losers perform. Annsell rallied 10% on solid FY25 margins and FY26 guidance beat while Reece was smashed as much as 22% on soft FY25 numbers and poor guidance commentary.

BROKER MOVES

• Abacus Group downgraded to Underweight from Neutral; target remains $1.20 (JPM)

• Data#3 downgraded to Neutral from Buy but target up to $8.70 from $8.10 (UBS)

• Infomedia downgraded to Neutral from Buy but target up to $1.85 from $1.75 (UBS)

• NIB Holdings downgraded to Neutral from Buy but target up to $8.60 from $7.85 (UBS)

• Pilbara Minerals downgraded to Hold from Buy but target up to $2.10 from $2.00 (BP)

• Reece downgraded to Underperform from Neutral; target cut to $10.10 from $14.90 (MQG)

• Regis Healthcare downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform; target cut to $8.25 from $8.75 (RBC)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Tue 26 Aug: AGL Energy (AGL) – $0.25, Bega Cheese (BGA) – $0.06, Challenger (CGF) – $0.15, Deterra Royalties (DRR) – $0.13, Eureka Group Holdings (EGH) – $0.007, HMC Capital (HMC) – $0.06, Redox (RDX) – $0.065

• Wed 27 Aug: Accent Group (AX1) – $0.015, Amotiv (AOV) – $0.22, Bell Financial Group (BFG) – $0.03, BSP Financial Group (BFL) – $0.306, Cogstate (CGS) – $0.02, Fat Prophets Global Contrarian Fund (FPC) – $0.05, GQG Partners (GQG) – $0.039, Maxiparts (MXI) – $0.031, Ooh!Media (OML) – $0.022, Telstra Group (TLS) – $0.095, The Lottery Corporation (TLC) – $0.085, Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) – $0.20

• Thu 28 Aug: Australian United Investment Company (AUI) – $0.28, Beach Energy (BPT) – $0.06, Boom Logistics (BOL) – $0.02, Cuscal (CCL) – $0.055, Diversified United Investment (DUI) – $0.09, Heartland Group Holdings (HGH) – $0.018, Ignite (IGN) – $0.035, IPH (IPH) – $0.195, KKR Credit Income Fund (KKC) – $0.017, REA Group (REA) – $1.38, Ventia Services Group (VNT) – $0.107, VGI Partners Global Investments (VG1) – $0.06, Woodside Energy (WDS) – $0.813

• Fri 29 Aug: Ampol (ALD) – $0.40, Carlton Investments (CIN) – $0.68, Fiducian Group (FID) – $0.247, Helia Group (HLI) – $0.43, Orora (ORA) – $0.05, Pengana International Equities (PIA) – $0.014, Platinum Capital (PMC) – $0.03, Shape Australia (SHA) – $0.125

• Mon 1 Sep: Aurizon Holdings (AZJ) – $0.065, Pinnacle Investment Management (PNI) – $0.27

• Tue 2 Sep: Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ) – $0.03, Codan (CDA) – $0.16, EQT Holdings (EQT) – $0.56, Iluka Resources (ILU) – $0.02, Lynch Group Holdings (LGL) – $0.09, MA Financial Group (MAF) – $0.06, Northern Star Resources (NST) – $0.30

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Goodman Group (GMG)

• Larger Cap Earnings: Austal (ASB), AUB Group (AUB), Coles (COL), Fortescue (FMG), Integral Diagnostics (IDX), Ingenia Communities (INA), Johns Lyng Group (JLG), Kelsian Group (KLS), Mader Group (MAD), Nanosonics (NAN), Scentre Group (SCG), Viva Energy (VEA), West African Resources (WAF)

• Small-to-Mid Cap Earnings: Acusensus (ACE), Australian Clinical Labs (ACL), Aurelia Metals (AMI), Austin Engineering (ANG), Beforepay (B4P), Blueglass (BLG), Camplify (CHL), Cleanspace (CXS), Cedar Woods Properties (CWP), Earlypay (EPY) G8 Education (GEM), Helloworld (HLO), IVE Group (IGL), Intelligent Monitoring Group (IMB), Imricor Medical (IMR), Integrated Research (IRI), Jumbo Interactive (JIN), Matrix Composites (MCE), Pacific Current Group (PAC), Propel Funeral Partners (PFP), Stealth Group (SGI), SKS Technologies (SKS), Tyro Payments (TYR), Wagners (WGN)

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: Web Travel Group (WEB)

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 10:30 am: Australia Consumer Confidence (Aug)

• 10:30 pm: Canada Inflation (Jul)

• 10:30 pm: US Building Permits, Housing Starts (Jul)