Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to slip, S&P 500 flat but Nasdaq snaps a three-day losing streak

ASX 200 futures are down 17pts (-0.19%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks mixed, with the S&P 500 closing around breakeven while the Russell 2000 (+0.22%) and Nasdaq (+0.13%) eked out a small gain

• Gold prices fall sharply, down 2.1% to US$4,082 on hawkish Fed comments and fading December rate cut expectations

• Other headlines of interest include Berkshire Hathaway loads up on Alphabet shares, Trump announces deals with several South American countries

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 clawed back early losses to close around breakeven (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks mixed after a big selloff in the prior session, most indices off worst levels

• A relatively choppy session, with some resemblance of stabilisation following the recent momentum unwind

• Catalyst heavy week, with Nvidia earnings, retail earnings (including Walmart), more Fedspeak and expectations for September’s employment data to be released

• US weekly recap: Dow (+0.34%), S&P 500 (+0.08%), Nasdaq (-0.45%), Russell 2000 (-1.83%) 

• This week’s retail results to offer clues on health of US consumers (BBG)

• Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index headed for best year since 2020 (WSJ)

• Trading volume for CDS jumps as investors hyperscalers ramp up AI-linked borrowing (BBG)

• Fund managers warn of overcrowding into popular emerging market trades like Brazilian real, AI-related stocks (BBG)

• Several hedge funds trim stakes in Mag 7 names in Q3 (RT)

• Berkshire Hathaway builds $4.3bn stake in Alphabet, tenth-largest stock holding in portfolio, sheds more Apple shares (FT)

• Investors fear economic data gaps may delay Fed rate cuts, halt stock market rally (RT)

STOCKS

• Apple preparing succession plans as CEO Tim Cook could retire as soon as next year (FT)

• Google getting ready to launch Gemini 3.0 (BI)

• Google plans to invest $40bn in three new Texas data centers (BBG)

• Applied Materials says spending on chipmaking equipment in China will fall in 2026 due to US export controls (RT)

• Oracle shares down nearly 30% in last month amid concerns over heavy borrowing for AI investment (FT)

• Apple has seen 20% year-on-year increase in iPhone sales in China in first month after iPhone 17 series launched (RT)

• Tencent signs deal with Apple on 15% fee on WeChat purchases (BBG)

• Palantir plans significant investment in the UK to win military contracts amid increased defense spending (BBG)

TARIFFS

• Trump signs executive order to lower tariffs on beef, coffee, other agricultural and food goods (RT)

• Trump announced framework trade deals with El Salvador, Argentina, Ecuador, and Guatemala which include removing tariffs from key food imports such as coffee and bananas (RT)

• South Korean manufacturers to unveil domestic investment plans amid concerns US trade deal could weaken manufacturing at home (RT)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Wall Street cuts bets on December rate cut to ~40% after recent string of hawkish Fedspeak (FT)

• Atlanta Fed's Bostic not yet convinced about a December cut (BBG)

• Cleveland Fed's Hammack says rate policy should remain restrictive amid concerning inflation (RT)

• SF Fed's Daly says it's too soon to decide on cutting rates in December (BBG)

• Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari still undecided on December rate decision, waiting on data (BBG)

ECONOMY

• China growth slowdown extended into October with investment declining at record pace (BBG)

• China new home prices fall at quickest pace in a year, property investment contracts at steeper pace (RT)

• Japan Q3 GDP forecast to show deepest contraction in two years with tariffs hitting exports (BBG)

ASX TODAY

• BHP confirms that English High Court has found BHP liable under Brazilian law for the 2015 Fundão dam failure, BHP intends to appeal the decision and believes the action as duplicative of ongoing remediation and compensation (BHP)

• FleetPartners reports FY26 NPATA up 9% to $41.3m, 1H26 conditions remain challenging though positive momentum expected to build through the second half (FPR)

• Westpac extends regional branch moratorium from 2027 to 2030, will commence pilot program in partnership with local councils to deliver regional service (WBC)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Stabilisation: The ASX 200 is down 2.4% in the last four sessions and trading at a four-month low. The market is becoming increasingly oversold and due for a bounce. However, the Aussie 10-year yield has surged 36 bps since late October to 4.47%. It's still relatively rangebound, as it has been for the past two years. However, nothing every good happens as it approach to the 4.50% level.

BROKER MOVES

• Genesis Minerals upgraded to Overweight from Neutral; target up to $8.50 from $6.20 (JPM)

• Northern Star upgraded to Overweight from Neutral; target up to $35.00 from $23.00 (JPM)

• Perseus Mining upgraded to Overweight from Neutral; target up to $6.10 from $4.40 (JPM)

• Regis Resources downgraded to Neutral from Overweight but target up to $6.70 from $6.50 (JPM)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Mon 17 Nov: L1 Long Short Fund (LSF) – $0.035, Macquarie Group MQG) – $2.80, Plato Income Maximiser (PL8) – $0.006

• Tue 18 Nov: Tamawood (TWD) – $0.105, WAM Active (WAA) – $0.003, WAM Income Maximiser (WMX) – $0.003

• Wed 19 Nov: None

• Thu 20 Nov: None

• Fri 21 Nov: N1 Holdings (N1H) – $0.003

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: None

• Earnings: Elders (ELD)

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: Endeavour Group (EDV), McMillan Shakespeare (MMS)

Economic calendar (AEDT):

No major economic announcements.