Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, Wall Street rally broadens as Russell 2000 hits record high

ASX 200 futures are up 39pts (+0.44%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• S&P 500 (+0.01%) breakeven in a relatively choppy and sideways session

• Breadth was notably strong, with sectors like Energy, Staples, Discretionary and Materials up more than one percent

• Equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.86%) outperformed the official benchmark by 87 bps, Russell 2000 (+1.11%) also closed at fresh all-time highs

• No major catalysts, markets in waiting mode for upcoming NFP data, Supreme Court decision on Trump tariffs, start of Q4 earnings and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 finished breakeven after a relatively choppy session (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks mostly higher, rather odd session with Energy and Staples sharply higher while Tech and Healthcare finished red

• Breadth was very strong, with the Equal-weight S&P 500 outperforming the official benchmark by 87 bps

• Big tech was mostly lower, notably Broadcom (-3.2%), Nvidia (-2.2%) and Microsoft (-1.1%)

• Markets waiting for upcoming high-profile catalysts including tonight's labour market data, Supreme Court decision on IEEPA tariffs, start of Q4 earnings season and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty

• Alphabet tops Apple as second-most valuable company behind Nvidia (YF)

• Memory and storage stocks lead S&P 500 on AI infrastructure spending and supply crunch (BBG)

• Trump's move on Maduro triggers bullishness on LatAM, attracting flows amid market‑friendly expectations (RT)

• Global bond issuance surges to 24‑year high as AI fuels demand for cheap financing (BBG)

• Geopolitics push institutional investors to near record bearish view on oil over the past 10 years (BBG)

STOCKS

• Nvidia demands full upfront, non-refundable payments from Chinese H200 customers amid export uncertainty (RT)

• Samsung forecasts Q4 operating profit to triple to record high, driven by AI demand (FT)

• Memory chip prices spike in China's secondary market despite weakening buyer demand (SCMP)

• Exxon warns Q4 upstream profits could be weighed by lower oil prices (RT)

• Shell Q4 hit by weak oil trading, narrows LNG guidance (BBG)

• Jefferies Q4 profit beats estimates, supported by dealmaking rebound and strong underwriting (RT)

• Constellation Brands Q3 sales and profits beat estimates, driven by Modelo and Corona brands (RT)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Fed’s Miran is seeking 150 bps of rate cuts this year to boost the labour market, argues inflation is headed towards 2.0% (BBG)

• Bessent argues the only ingredient missing for even stronger growth is more Fed cuts (CNBC)

• RBA Deputy Governor Hauser signals rate-cut cycle likely over despite softer Australian CPI data (ABC)

• ECB's Pereira says no monetary policy change needed as inflation stays near 2% target (BBG)

GEOPOLITICS

• Trump mulls payments of $10-100,000 to Greenlanders to join US (RT)

• US begins marketing Venezuelan crude globally, plans to control Venezuelan oil exports indefinitely (BBG)

• Exxon and ConocoPhillips say Venezuela owes them billions for past asset expropriations (NYT)

• Rubio to meet Denmark leaders next week, signals no retreat on Trump's Greenland goal (RT)

• Trump and Colombia's president speak by phone amid rising tensions following Maduro capture (NYT)

ECONOMY

• US GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in Q4 of 2025 is 5.4% on 8-Jan, up from 2.7% on 5-Jan (WSJ)

• US BEA will use Sept-Nov CPI averages to estimate October inflation measures for Fed (RT)

• Swiss inflation edges up in December, driven by rising rent costs, education and tobacco (BBG)

ASX TODAY

• Pretty quiet morning so far, overall price action for the ASX 200 has been relatively dicey but improving over recent weeks (higher highs, trading on the right side of key moving averages)

• Recent bounce in battered sectors like Tech, Healthcare and Staples plus overnight rotation into cyclical sectors could point to a broadening move (beyond miners)

• Australia 10-year yield now trading at the lowest since 4-Dec-25, still up a massive ~37 bps since November but encouraging to see yields peak

• Glencore and Rio Tinto reportedly restart merger talks, exploring possible all-share merger (FT)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Energy: Brent rallied 4.1% overnight to US$62.88, the highest since 8-Dec-25. Crude sentiment has been driven to the ground, with more than 59% of over 1,000 Goldman Sachs clients bearish on oil, according to Bloomberg. S&P 500 Energy sector up 3.2% overnight, could set the stage for some strength for local names.

BROKER MOVES

• ASX upgraded to Neutral from Sell; target remains $57.00 (GS)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Fri 9 Jan: Turners Automotive Group (TRA) – $0.07

• Mon 12 Jan: Dominion Income Trust (DN1) – $0.561

• Tue 13 Jan: Sandon Capital (SNC) – $0.005

• Wed 14 Jan: Tower (TWR) – $0.144

• Thu 15 Jan: None

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: None

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 12:30 pm: China Inflation (Dec)

• 12:30 am: US Non Farm Payrolls (Dec)