Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, Wall Street ends mixed + Brokers weigh in on lithium and gold stocks

ASX 200 futures are trading 17 points higher, up 0.21% as of 8:30 am AEST.

US stocks wavered to a mixed close on Wall Street, gold and copper prices give back last Friday's big gains, Taiwan Semiconductor joins the US$1 trillion club and a long list of broker upgrades/downgrades across the lithium and gold sector.

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 ticks higher amid choppy trade (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks mostly ticked higher overnight but off best levels

• Big tech was mostly lower while small caps, miners and real estate stocks outperformed

• Relatively quiet session ahead of US inflation data and kickoff of earnings season

• Gold reversed almost the entirety of last Friday’s 1.5% gain

• High bar for Q2 earnings season, market currently expecting Q2 S&P earnings growth of 8.8%, the highest since the 9.4% print in 1Q22 (FT)

• Banks kick off US earnings season this Friday, with JPMorgan, Citi and Wells Fargo scheduled to report

• Banking earnings forecast to fall 10% year-on-year in Q2 amid sluggish loan growth, according to FactSet 

• French stocks see a relief rally following what many describe as "less bad outcome" from the Sunday election (Bloomberg)

• Bond traders bet US yield curve will normalise toward a steeper slope ahead of US CPI data this week (Bloomberg)

STOCKS

• Boeing to plead guilty to criminal conspiracy in connection with two fatal crashes of its 737 Max jetliner (Bloomberg)

• Deal-making recovery expected to boost Q2 earnings for Wall Street banks (FT)

• Carlsberg agrees to buy London-listed soft drinks maker Britvic for £3.3bn (FT)

• Consumer-facing companies still feeling sharp pushback from customers despite easing inflation (CNBC)

• Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing’s market cap hits US$1tn, expects to launch new chips in Q4 (Bloomberg)

POLITICS

• Uncertainty looms for France after shock left-wing alliance gaining most seats (FT)

• More House Democrats want Biden to step aside from presidential race (FT)

GEOPOLITICS

• Israeli PM Netanyahu says any Gaza deal must let Israel resume fighting until war goals are met (Reuters)

• EU envoy says Beijing making it "very difficult" for Brussels to deepen ties (Reuters)

• NATO allies to pledge €40bn for Ukraine amid domestic turmoil at this week's summit (FT)

ECONOMY

• Eurozone economic sentiment weakens after eight consecutive increases (Reuters)

• German exports fell more than expected in June amid weak demand from China, US and Europe (Reuters)

• Japan's base pay climbs 2.5% in May, the fastest pace in 31 years but inflation-adjusted wages fell for a record 26th straight month (Reuters)

ASX TODAY

• ASX 200 set to open higher after a sharp 0.7% pullback on Monday

• Hanwha unlikely to launch hostile takeover bid for Austal (The Aus)

• Ramelius confirms it is no longer in any transaction discussions with Westgold (WGX)

 WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Not a whole lot going on today – A few of yesterday's winners like gold and copper set to pull back sharply

• UBS says retail wealth fund flows rose 5.6% quarter-on-quarter to $1.19tn, with a vast majority of FUM growth attributed to investment gains during a positive period for market returns

BROKER MOVES

• Core Lithium upgraded to Neutral from Sell but target cut to $0.10 from $0.12 (Jarden)

• Clinuvel Pharma downgraded to Hold from Add; target remains $16 (Morgans)

• Gold Road downgraded to Neutral from Overweight with $1.90 target (JPMorgan)

• IGO upgraded to Neutral from Underweight with $6.40 target (JPMorgan)

• Iluka Resources upgraded to Overweight from Neutral with $8.20 target (JPMorgan)

• Macquarie downgraded to Hold from Outperform; target up to $201 from $196 (CLSA)

• Newmont downgraded to Neutral from Overweight with $66 target (JPMorgan)

• Pilbara Minerals upgraded to Neutral from Underweight with $2.95 target (JPMorgan)

• Regis Resources downgraded to Neutral from Buy but target increased to $1.90 from $1.70 (Citi)

Companies trading ex-dividend: 

• Tue 9 July: Katana Capital (KAT) – $0.05, Red Hill Minerals (RHI) – $1.50

• Wed 10 July: None

• Thu 11 July: Transmetro Corp (TCO) – $0.05, Westgold Resources (WGX) – $0.013

• Fri 12 July: None

• Mon 15 July: None

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: None 

• Listing: None

• Earnings: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 10:30 am: Australia Consumer Confidence (Jul)

• 11:30 am: Australia Business Confidence (Jul)

• 12:00 am: Fed Chair Powell Testimony