Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, US stocks at all-time highs, Gold and Uranium stocks set to surge

ASX 200 futures are up 24pts (+0.27%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

In a nutshell:

• The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq all closed at fresh all-time highs, while the Russell 2000 slipped after a massive advance

• Despite major US benchmarks at record highs, breadth was massively negative

• Gold stocks set to surge as gold prices rally more than 1%, Uranium also set to rocket on bullish sentiment and Sprott buying

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 higher, closed near best levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks mostly higher and closet near best levels, with the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq all at fresh all-time highs

• Breadth was negative, with the Equal-weight S&P 500 (-0.17%) underperforming the official benchmark by 66 bps

• Big tech mostly higher, notably Oracle (+4.0%), Apple (+3.2%) and Tesla (+2.2%)

• A relatively quiet overnight session, with no major directional drivers, though the path of least resistance remains higher on resumption of Fed easing, better economic data, Trump-Xi call largely a non-event

• US weekly recap: Nasdaq (+2.21%), Russell 2000 (+2.16%), S&P 500 (+1.22%), Dow (+1.05%)

• Fed fuels Wall Street rally, broadest cross-asset surge since 2021 frenzy (BBG)

• Wall Street bets on more rate cuts, boosting the US economy and markets, risks of investors getting ahead of the Fed on the rise (WSJ)

• Investors flock to old tech, which some strategists warn may reflect AI bubble spillover (BBG)

• US investor cash holdings hit record $7.7tn, unfazed by falling rates (WSJ)

• Foreign holdings of Treasuries hit record high, though China's holdings fall to 2008 low (BBG)

• Investors face bond shortage, turn to credit derivatives market to deploy excess cash (BBG)

• Chinese tech stocks surge, outpacing Nasdaq thanks to AI and chip independence efforts (FT)

• Japanese stocks decline as BOJ announces plan to sell $250bn in ETFs, yen strengthened against the dollar (FT)

• BofA says stress emerging in $1.7tn private credit market as defaults rise, borrowers defer payments (BBG)

• Hedge funds bullish on oil as geopolitical unrest boosts crude prices (BBG)

STOCKS

• FedEx Q1 revenue and earnings beat low expectations, reaffirmed FY guidance of 4-6% revenue growth vs. 1.1% consensus, flagged $1bn hit from global trade (BBG)

• Apple launches iPhone 17 Pro, Pro Max, and Air, strong demand for Pro models (BBG)

• Oracle, Meta mull potential $20bn cloud deal, showing Oracle's growing infrastructure power (BBG)

• Berkshire Hathaway completely exits BYD investment, ending highly profitable venture in Chinese EV maker (CNBC)

• Small US defense stocks rise due to demand for next-gen military technology and spending (RT)

TARIFFS

• Xi and Trump discussed TikTok, Nvidia and trade in a call on Friday (BBG)

• New $100,000 H-1B visa fee starts Sunday, White House notes it excludes those with existing valid visas (Axios)

• China sees TikTok deal as a means of buying more time to negotiate on higher-priority issues, including tariffs, technology and Taiwan (NYT)

• Canada drops challenges against US anti-dumping duties on lumber as Carney eyes trade deal with Trump (BBG)

• US-South Korea trade talks leave key issues over worker visas, auto tariffs and investment unresolved (BBG)

• European companies face production stoppages due to rare earth shortages from China, despite record-high exports (BBG)

CENTRAL BANKS

• BOJ holds rates at 0.5%, plans to sell risky assets, dissent hints at stimulus reduction (BBG)

• China expected to maintain benchmark lending rates for the fourth consecutive month (RT)

ECONOMY

• Japan August inflation slows to 2.7% from 3.1% in the previous month, in-line with expectations (BBG)

• UK retail sales rose 0.5% in August, driven by clothing and food sales amid good weather (BBG)

• European fall travel to US tumbles 11% year-on-year amid concerns over Trump policies, immigration, and tariffs (BBG)

ASX TODAY

• BHP likely to appoint Geraldine Slattery as Mike Henry successor (FT)

• BHP’s infrastructure assets approached by BlackRock-owned Global Infrastructure Partners for some of its infrastructure assets (AFR)

• Insider transaction: REA Group CEO discloses sale of 13,000 shares, beneficially owns 17,000 shares after the transaction (REA)

• Insider transaction: Turaco Gold MD Justin Tremain sells 2.4m shares, owns 9.8m shares after the selldown (TCG)

• Insider transaction: Shape Australia founder Michael Van Leeuwen offloads 4.7m shares, owns 9.0m shares after the trade (SHA)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Uranium: Massive overnight session for uranium, with URA up 8.1%, closing at the highest level since October 2012. Not too sure about the catalyst. Mercuria, an independent energy and commodity group launched physical uranium trading. SPUT also seen buying ~450,000 lb of physical uranium over the weekend.

• Gold: Gold prices rallied 1.1% overnight, driving a strong response for the Gold Miners ETF (GDX), up 5.1% to fresh all-time highs. Gold miners have mostly pulled back over the last three sessions, so expect a very strong session for local names on Monday.

BROKER MOVES

• Megaport upgraded to Outperform from Sector perform; target up to $18.00 from $15.00 (RBC)

• Santos  upgraded to Outperform from Sector perform; target remains $7.75 (RBC)

• Sigma Healthcare initiated Overweight with $3.30 target (JPM)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Mon 22 Sep: Bisalloy Steel Group (BIS) – $0.165, New Hope Corporation (NHC) – $0.15

• Tue 23 Sep: Ipd Group (IPG) – $0.062, Southern Cross Electrical Engineering (SXE) – $0.05, WT Financial Group (WTL) – $0.005

• Wed 24 Sep: Genesis Energy (GNE) – $0.065, IMDEX (IMD) – $0.01

• Thu 25 Sep: Ambertech (AMO) – $0.006, PRL Global (PRG) – $0.02, Salter Brothers Emerging Companies (SB2) – $0.02, Teaminvest Private Group (TIP) – $0.015, Verbrec (VBC) – $0.001, Wiseway Group (WWG) – $0.006

• Fri 26 Sep: Ramsay Health Care (RHCPA) – $3.075, SRG Global (SRG) – $0.03, Veris (VRS) – $0.002

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Coles (COL), Iress (IRE), SDI (SDI)

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: Revolution Private Credit Income Trust (REV) at 11:00 am 

• AGMs: Gold Road (GOR)

Economic calendar (AEST):

No major economic announcements.