Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, S&P 500 wobbles + Gold, silver and copper prices surge

ASX 200 futures are up 29pts (+0.32%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks mixed, with S&P 500 flat and Nasdaq lower amid a pivot into defensive pockets of the market

• Gold back at all-time highs after a one-day breather, silver prices eyeing US$50/oz, copper prices jump

• Expect a relatively quiet and illiquid session as NSW is off for Labour Day

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 faded early gains to close near session lows (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks finished mixed, with stocks closing well-below session highs

• S&P 500 edged out its sixth-straight gain but down from session high of 0.53%

• Solid breadth with Equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.35%) outperforming the official benchmark by 36 bps

• A relatively defensive session, with select Mag-7 and growth stocks underperforming while defensives like Utilities, Health Care and Financials outperform

• Lack of any clear market-moving events amid US government shutdown, though ISM services PMI missed by a wide margin

• US weekly recap: Russell 2000 (+1.72%), Nasdaq (+1.32%), Dow (+1.10%), S&P 500 (+1.09%)

• Gold back at all-time highs and within an arms reach of US$3,900, copper prices surged 2.5% to US$5.1/lb, Brent crude marginally higher but down more than 6% for the week

• China boosting oil stockpiles, cushions oil price weakness as OPEC+ raises daily output (NK)

• OPEC+ agrees to modest 137K bpd production hike in November amid compromise between Saudi Arabia and Moscow (BBG)

• AI bubble concerns continue to ramp amid uncertainty around profitability, diminishing returns on computing power investments, China competition and unconventional financing arrangements (BBG)

• US companies with highest share of overseas revenue significantly outperform domestically-focused companies amid dollar's slump (FT)

STOCKS

• Online betting operators like DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment hit hard by concerns about competition from prediction-based betting venues (BBG)

• Stellantis to invest additional $5bn in the US to help facilitate turnaround with funds likely to go to plans, hiring and new models (BBG)

• Applied Materials flags $600m impact on full year revenue after gov't widened China export blacklist (BBG)

• Tesla reported record quarterly deliveries, but fears of expired EV tax credits weigh (RT)

• Boeing delays 777X to early 2027 from next year, potentially costing billions in accounting charges (BBG)

TARIFFS

• China seeking broad changes in US trade and easing national security restrictions in exchange for a ~$1tn investment pledge (BBG)

• Bessent expects breakthrough in upcoming China trade talks (SCMP)

• Seoul awaits response from Washington over revised plan to manage $350bn investment fund (YH)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Chicago Fed's Goolsbee says internal data indicates labour market steady, underlying economy growing solidly, reiterated concerns about front-loading too many rate hikes (BBG)

• Dallas Fed's Logan says US central bank must be "very cautious" on rate cuts (Reuters)

• BOJ's Ueda sees no signs tariff effects are spreading but warns of global uncertainties (RT)

US GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN

• Trump leveraging the shutdown to consolidate executive power, targeting Democratic priorities (AX)

• Trump is rallying business and labour groups to persuade Senate Democrats to end the shutdown (AX)

ECONOMY

• US September ISM services PMI was 50.0 vs. 52.0 consensus, now the lowest since May 2025, new orders index fell sharply to 50.4 from 56 in the prior month (BBG)

• Alternative measures of US employment suggest labour market remained soft in September, but no change in jobless rate (RT)

• Trump says considering $2,000 rebates for Americans from tariff revenues, pending Supreme Court decision on tariffs (NYP)

• Eurozone PMI services sector growth reached an eight-month high in September (RTE)

• UK services PMI falls to 50.8 in September, signaling weak consumer confidence and declining demand (CA)

• Japan's unemployment rate jumps to 2.6% in August vs. 2.4% consensus and up from 2.3% in the previous month (BBG)

• France's industrial production fell 0.7% in August, missing expectations amid declines in transport and utilities (BBG)

ASX TODAY

• St Barbara seeking to raise $40m at 46 cents per share (AFR)

• Superloop looking at M&A opportunities, without citing sources, article points to Aussie Broadband or Swoop as possible targets (The Aus)

• Theta Gold Mines retracts base case production target, did not have a reasonable basis for forward looking statements (TGM)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Rare earths and lithium: Rare earths/strategic metals ETF (REMX) absolutely pumping, although this is largely due to Lithium Americas surging off the back of its deal with the DoE/US government. Rare earth stocks like Lynas continue to move in a vertical fashion, while lithium is showing encouraging signs of a bottom.

• Copper: Copper prices rallied 2.5% overnight to US$5.1/lb, plenty of momentum behind the sector as three of the world's top mines are now offline (Grasberg, Kamoa-Kakula and Cobre Panama). These three represent approximately 7% of global output.

• Gold: Gold continues to charge ahead, currently sitting around US$3,885/oz, though gold miners finished flat overnight. It feels like gold prices need to show more gains to move the needle for rather overextended gold stocks.

• NSW public holiday: Expect a relatively illiquid and sideways session as NSW is off for labour day.

BROKER MOVES

Broker data is currently pending.

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Mon 6 Oct: Harvey Norman (HVN) – $0.145, Ridley Corp (RIC) – $0.005, Stealth Group Holdings (SGI) – $0.01

• Tue 7 Oct: Katana Capital (KAT) – $0.005, Reece (REH) – $0.119

• Wed 8 Oct: Clime Capital (CAM) – $0.014, MFF Capital Investments (MFF) – $0.09, Naos Emerging Opportunities (NCC) – $0.02, Vulcan Steel (VSL) – $0.032

• Thu 9 Oct: Clime Investment Management (CIW) – $0.005, Duxton Water (D2O) – $0.037

• Fri 10 Oct: None

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Austin Engineering (ANG), Regis Resources (REG)

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

No major economic events.