Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, S&P 500 within 0.3% of record high, Nvidia hits US$4 trillion market cap

ASX 200 futures are up 41pts (+0.48%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

In a nutshell:

• S&P 500 snapped a two-day losing streak and within 0.3% of all-time highs

• Nvidia hit a second consecutive all-time high and became the first company to (briefly) cross the US$4 trillion market cap level

• A pretty quiet session for the local market, not a whole of announcements, trading updates and broker notes so far this morning

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 recoups early weakness to close at best levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks higher and closed near best levels, with the S&P 500 now 0.3% off record levels

• Tech stocks powered the gains, with the Equal-weight S&P 500 underperforming the official benchmark by 31 bps

• Nvidia (+1.8%) hit a second straight record high, briefly crossing US$4tn in market cap

• No major directional drivers, markets likely propped up by a lower yield backdrop (US 10-year down 6 bps to 4.33%) as well as tech strength, pickup in M&A activity and no surprises on the trade/tariff front

• US companies brace for first earnings season since trade war, though tariff impact slightly offset by weaker dollar (RT)

• Bond traders unwind bullish Treasury positions after strong payrolls data weakened near-term rate cut expectations (BBG)

• Goldman Sachs and Bank of America differ on economic outlooks but agree the US tariffs won't hinder market outlook (AX)

• COMEX-LME copper spread hits record high, imposing costs on American manufacturers (BBG)

• Gold prices slipped further after US confirmed no delay on August tariffs, reducing haven demand amid rising Treasury yields (BBG)

STOCKS

• Oppenheimer upgrades Microsoft, citing AI growth potential remains untapped (BBG)

• Amazon Prime Day sales were down 41% on the sale's first day (FB)

• Perplexity launches its first AI-powered web browser, called Comet (TC)

• Super Micro plans to boost its investment in Europe, focusing on increasing AI server manufacturing in the region (CNBC)

• Merck close to a $10bn deal to acquire Verona Pharma, expanding into respiratory medicine as its own Keytruda nears patent expiration (FT)

• Nissan to postpone production of US EVs following Trump administration's decision to end tax breaks (NK)

CENTRAL BANKS

• June FOMC minutes noted “a couple” of participants considering a rate cut by July, while other official said no rate cuts in 2025 would be the appropriate path amid recently elevated inflation prints (FED)

• Trump weighing 3-4 people for Fed Chair, Hassett and Bessent among leading contenders (RT)

• BoJ's Koeda watching potential inflation impacts from rising rice prices, says too early to predict rate hike timing (RT)

• RBNZ on hold as expected, anticipates further rate cuts (BBG)

TARIFFS

• Trump sends tariff letters to six more countries including Philippines, Moldova, Libya and Iraq (CNBC)

• Trump announces 50% copper tariffs, 200% tariffs on pharma and threatens 10% tariff on BRICS nations (BBG)

• EU close to framework agreement with US that locks in 10% tariff (BBG)

• KPMG Tariff Pulse survey reveals 57% of companies face declining margins due to tariffs, prompting potential price hikes (AX)

• Taiwan hopeful on US trade talks after avoiding tariff letter so far (BBG)

ECONOMY

• China producer prices fell the most in nearly two years, with the producer price index down 3.6% year-on-year in June (BBG)

ASX TODAY

Check out our Live Blog for the latest coverage and analysis for company announcements, market movements and economic updates.

• Aurelia Metals reports preliminary FY25 production of 45.4koz vs. 40-50koz guidance (AMI)

• Black Cat Syndicate increases size of greater Paulsens Project Tenure by 460km2 to 3,650km2 (BC8)

• Vulcan Energy Board resolves to increase share capital against cash contributions of up to €30m (VUL)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Pretty quiet so far: Markets are set to bounce in what is so far a relatively uneventful session. Not much on the company announcements, broker notes and Trump/tariff front.

• Overnight ETFs: A few notable moves on the ETF watchlist (Homebuilders +3.1%, bounce for Nickel and Gold, slight pullback for Rare Earths/Strategic Metals).

BROKER MOVES

• Platinum Asset Management upgraded to Buy from Hold; target up to $0.60 from $0.49 (BP)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Thu 10 Jul: None

• Fri 11 Jul: Dominion Income Trust (DN1) – $0.613, Turners Automotive Group (TRA) – $0.083

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Champion Iron (CIA), Sietel (SSLPA)

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

No major economic announcements.