Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, S&P 500 wavers on Microsoft weakness, Gold hits fresh all-time high

In a nutshell:

• US stocks finished higher, with defensive and value leading to the upside

• Gold stocks are set to soar as bullion prices hit another fresh record high overnight

• Long list of quarterlies, notable reporters include ResMed, PointsBet and Deterra Royalties

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

A choppy session for the S&P 500 (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks finished higher but off best levels

• Equal-weight S&P 500 outperformed the official benchmark by 53 bps as every sector except tech pushed higher

• Tech sector underperformed amid continued DeepSeek fears and weaker-than-expected guidance from Microsoft, which finished the session down 6.2%

• Risks piling up for US market as investors grapple with AI stock shock, Fed outlook (RT)

• Tariffs dominate earnings calls as companies prepare for disruption driven by Trump 2.0 (BBG)

STOCKS

• IBM (+13.0%) beats forecasts amid surge in AI software and consulting revenue, Q2 EPS of $3.92 was well-ahead of $3.78 consensus (BBG)

• Tesla (+2.8%) Q4 profit misses on weaker-than-expected gross margin, free cash flow beat on meaningful cost reduction, reiteration of new models in 1H25 (BBG)

• Shell (+2.9%) misses quarterly profit estimate but bumps up dividend and announces $3.5bn share buyback (FT)

• Meta (+1.5%) Q4 earnings beat, focused on broad product tailwind from AI initiatives, reiterates outsized capex and infrastructure investments (BBG)

• Deutsche Bank (-1.7%) posts steeper-than-expected Q4 profit fall and scraps cost target (RT)

• Microsoft (-6.2%) Q2 beat offset by weaker-than-expected Q3 revenue guidance and a deceleration in Azure growth (BBG)

• UPS (-14.1%) reached an agreement with Amazon to lower its volume by more than 50% in the second half of 2026 (RT)

• DeepSeek prompting volatility in IPO rebound as firms must now go extra mile to prove value (BBG)

• American Airlines regional plane carrying 60 passengers collides with Black Hawk helicopter in Washington DC (RT)

CENTRAL BANKS

• ECB cuts rates by 25 bps to 2.75%, fifth time since June (YH)

• ECB may drop the “restrictive” label on monetary policy stance as soon as March, though another rate cut then is highly likely (BBG)

ECONOMY

• US preliminary Q4 GDP up 2.3% quarter-on-quarter, below consensus for a 2.4% increase, growth driven by strong consumer and government spending though partly offset by a decrease in investment and exports (RT)

• Eurozone growth stalls with Germany, France, Italy reporting quarter-on-quarter GDP growth of -0.2%, -0.1% and 0% respectively for the December quarter (FT)

ASX TODAY

• Deterra Royalties reports Q2 total royalty receipts of A$59.3m vs. A$53.1m last quarter (DRR)

• PointsBet reports Q2 normalised EBITDA loss of -$3.3m vs. -$13.3m a year ago, downgrades full-year EBITDA to $11-14m from prior guidance (11-16m (PBH)

• Ramsay CFO Martyn Roberts resigns, Australia CEO Carmel Monaghan to retire in mid-25 (RHC)

• ResMed reports Q2 results, delivered 10% YoY revenue growth, 230 bps improvement in gross margin and $309m of operating cash flow – at a glance, EPS is 2.5% ahead of GSe but dividend was a 1 cent miss or 1.9% below GSe (RMD)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Gold: Gold prices hit a record high of US$2,798 overnight (also trading at a record A$4,500). Gold Miners ETF (GDX) surged 4.0% to a near four-month high. This should set up local names for a very strong session.

• Credit Corp: Reported 1H25 results yesterday. Revenue, NPAT and dividend missed Macquarie estimates by 4-6%. FY25 NPAT also soft (~1.5% miss). Stock opened Thursday session 1.5% lower, finished down 12.5%. Could see more weakness on analyst downgrades.

BROKER MOVES

• Capricorn Metals downgraded to Underperform from Neutral; but target up to $7.30 from $7.10 (MQG)

• Credit Corp downgraded to Neutral from Outperform; target cut to $16.27 from $19.62 (MQG)

• James Hardie upgraded to Buy from Hold; target up to $63 from $56 (JEF)

• Magellan downgraded to Underweight from Neutral; target cut to $9.35 from $10.25 (JARD)

• Magellan downgraded to Sell from Neutral; target cut to $10.30 from $10.90 (UBS)

• HMC Capital upgraded to Buy from Neutral; target up to $10.85 from $7.95 (UBS)

• Sandfire Resources upgraded to Neutral from Sell; target up to $10.45 from $9.85 (UBS)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Fri 31 Jan: Metrics Income Opportunities Trust (MOT) – $0.016, Metrics Master Income Trust (MXT) – $0.014, Metrics Real Estate Multi-Strategy Fund (MRE) – $0.01

• Mon 3 Feb: Australian Foundation Investment Company (AFI) – $0.12, BKI Investment Company (BKI) – $0.039, Pengana Global Private Credit Trust (PCX) – $0.012

• Tue 4 Feb: Amcil (AMH) – $0.01

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Centuria Industrial REIT (CIP), Centuria Office REIT (COF), Leo Lithium (LLL), and Rural Funds Group (RFF)

• Listing: None

• Earnings: Pointsbet (PBH)

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 10:30 am: Australia Producer Price Index (Q4)

• 5:45 pm: France Inflation Rate (Jan)

• 6:55 pm: Germany Unemployment Rate (Jan)

• 11:00 pm: Germany Inflation Rate (Jan)

• 11:30 pm: US Core PCE Price Index (Dec)