Market Wraps

Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, S&P 500 sets fresh all-time high

Fri 24 Jan 25, 8:35am (AEDT)

ASX 200 futures are up 29pts (+0.34%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

  • A last minute rally pushed the S&P 500 to record levels and above 6,100 for the first time on record

  • Breath was positive, all US sectors finished green and more than two-thirds of S&P constituents were higher

  • Relatively quiet morning so far for the ASX, strong breadth likely a theme today as well as small cap quarterlies

Let's dive in.

Overnight Summary

Fri 24 Jan 25, 8:23am (AEDT)

Name Value % Chg
Major Indices
S&P 500 6,119 +0.53%
Dow Jones 44,565 +0.92%
NASDAQ Comp 20,054 +0.22%
Russell 2000 2,310 +0.29%
Country Indices
Canada 25,434 +0.48%
China 3,230 +0.51%
Germany 21,412 +0.74%
Hong Kong 19,701 -0.40%
India 76,520 +0.15%
Japan 39,959 +0.79%
United Kingdom 8,565 +0.23%
Name Value % Chg
Commodities (USD)
Gold 2,761.8 -0.18%
Iron Ore 101.4 +0.19%
Copper 4.3265 +0.77%
WTI Oil 74.27 -1.58%
Currency
AUD/USD 0.6285 +0.19%
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin (USD) 103,101 -0.99%
Ethereum (AUD) 5,162 +0.08%
Miscellaneous
US 10 Yr T-bond 4.638 +0.85%
VIX 14.93 -1.12%

US Sectors

Fri 24 Jan 25, 8:24am (AEDT)

SECTOR % CHG
Health Care +1.35%
Industrials +0.96%
Real Estate +0.82%
Communication Services +0.81%
Financials +0.60%
Materials +0.51%
SECTOR % CHG
Utilities +0.47%
Energy +0.45%
Consumer Staples +0.41%
Consumer Discretionary +0.40%
Information Technology +0.12%

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

SPX
S&P 500 at all-time highs after a last minute rally (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

  • Major US benchmarks higher, finished at best levels after a late rally

  • S&P 500 set its first fresh all-time high since 6-Dec, closing above 6,100 for the first time on record

  • Breadth was positive after breaking a six-session streak of days where more than two-thirds of S&P constituents were higher

  • Overall, a relatively uneventful session ahead of Big Tech results next week and market seeking further clarification on Trump tariffs

  • US equities to see US$1tn of corporate demand in 2025, representing the largest year on record for buybacks, according to Goldman Sachs

  • Mag-7 earnings due next week,with analysts expecting Q4 earnings to rise 21.7% year-on-year vs. 9.7% growth for the remaining 493 S&P 500 companies

  • CTAs cut long positions to lowest since August, aggregate positioning at two-month low (BBG)

  • Japan retail investors' appetite for foreign equities keeping yen gains in check (BBG)

STOCKS

  • American Airlines shares dip 8% after the company issued a disappointing Q1 outlook (CNBC)

  • US firms in China increasingly worried about deteriorating bilateral relations (RT)

  • CNN announces job cuts to 6% of workforce as it pivots its focus to streaming (BBG)

  • Red Bull reports record profit for 2024 but revenue growth slowed to lowest since 2020 (BBG)

  • Fortescue iron ore exports rise 1%, fueling supply glut concerns amid waning China demand (BBG)

  • Honda and Nissan exploring merger to address rapidly declining performance in China market (RT)

CENTRAL BANKS

  • Fed signals extended rate pause as Trump's policies loom, PIMCO says (FT)

  • ECB rate cut bets surge, traders eye potential 50 bp cut by June (BBG)

  • Norway Central bank holds rates steady, signals March cut despite global uncertainties (BBG)

  • BOJ expected to hike interest rates by 25 bp Friday, Ueda's comments on rate path another focus (BBG)

TRUMP

  • Trump threatens Russia and other countries with tariffs and sanctions if Putin doesn't agree to Ukraine deal (RT)

  • Trump calls on OPEC+ and Saudi Arabia to lower oil prices; demands US interest rates drop immediately (BBG)

  • Trump speaks virtually to the 2025 World Economic Forum in Davos but added little substance to help clarify current tariff issue (RT)

  • Saudi Arabia pledges US$600bn investment in US, eyeing Trump's economic reforms (BBG)

  • Republican leaders considering big debt-and-funding deal with Democrats (PL)

  • US military preparing to send 1,500 troops to assist with border security (RT)

ECONOMY

  • UK consumer confidence hits new low, nearly half of Britons expect economy to worsen (BBG)

  • South Korea GDP growth up just 0.1% in Q4, with consumption weakening amid political turmoil (BBG)

  • Japan export and import growth slows amid weak yen and Trump policy uncertainty (BBG)

Industry ETFs

Fri 24 Jan 25, 8:23am (AEDT)

Name Value % Chg
Commodities
Uranium 30.95 +1.98%
Steel 60.8881 +0.82%
Copper Miners 39.49 +0.71%
Gold Miners 37.51 -0.05%
Strategic Metals 41.74 -0.10%
Lithium & Battery Tech 41.36 -0.53%
Silver 27.7606 -1.03%
Industrials
Aerospace & Defense 158.54 +1.90%
Agriculture 27.27 +0.18%
Construction 82.4114 -0.41%
Global Jets 26.275 -0.77%
Healthcare
Biotechnology 138.25 +1.44%
Name Value % Chg
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin 25.08 -0.95%
Renewables
Solar 33.5199 +2.92%
CleanTech 6.92 +2.37%
Hydrogen 22.8982 +2.13%
Technology
FinTech 32.85 +0.74%
Cloud Computing 24.85 +0.61%
Electric Vehicles 24.02 +0.54%
Robotics & AI 34.53 +0.44%
Cybersecurity 33.335 +0.08%
E-commerce 29.0009 +0.07%
Sports Betting/Gaming 19.61 -0.05%
Video Games/eSports 84.4224 -0.15%
Semiconductor 235.37 -0.19%

ASX TODAY

  • Earlypay aware that 21.4% shareholder COG Financial Services intends to sell its stake, hires corporate adviser to seek bids for the entire company (AFR)

  • KMD Brands reports 2.5% drop in Group sales for the first five months of FY25, expects 1H25 EBITDA between $1-3m vs. $15.1m a year ago (KMD)

  • Michael Hill guides to 1H25 comparable EBIT of $22.5-24m vs. $31.3m a year ago and $31.9m consensus, gross margin of 61-61.5% vs. 61.5% a year ago (MHJ)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

Relatively quiet overnight session and morning so far. Solid lead in (especially after the last minute rally for US stocks), with strong breadth a likely theme for us today. Most of the above overnight ETFs were up/down 1%. Uranium was once again, another bright spot, with the Global X Uranium ETF up 2.0% (now up 13% in the last four sessions).

BROKER MOVES

  • Ampol upgraded to Buy from Neutral; but target cut to $32 from $32.30 (GS)

Key Events

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

  • Fri 24 Jan: Alternative Investment Trust (AIQ) – $0.042, Myer (MYR) – $0.025

  • Mon 27 Jan: None

  • Tue 28 Jan: None

  • Wed 29 Jan: None

  • Thu 30 Jan: Djerriwarrh Investments (DJW) – $0.072

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

  • Dividends paid: 360 Capital Group (TGP), 360 Capital REIT (TOT), Elders (ELD)

  • Listing: None

  • Earnings: None

  • AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

  • 9:30 am: Japan Inflation Rate (DEC)

  • 1:00 pm: BoJ Interest Rate Decision

  • 6:30 pm: Germany Manufacturing and Services PMI (JAN)

  • 7:30 pm: UK Manufacturing and Services PMI (JAN)

Written By

Kerry Sun

Content Strategist

Kerry holds a Bachelor of Commerce from Monash University. He is an avid swing trader, focused on technical set ups and breakouts. Outside of writing and trading, Kerry is a big UFC fan, loves poker and training Muay Thai. Connect via LinkedIn or email.

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