Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, S&P 500 logs third day of gains, copper soars to record levels

ASX 200 futures are up 47pts (+0.58%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• S&P 500 up for a third straight day (in a relatively quiet and rangebound session)

• 2025-26 budget announced last night, although most measures were pre-announced and therefore contained no major surprises

• ANZ abruptly sold off 3.1% towards close on Tuesday, will be interesting to see if it can bounce

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 higher in a relatively uneventful session (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• US equities traded in a tight range to finish slightly higher

• S&P 500 and Nasdaq advanced for a third straight session, although the Equal-weight benchmark finished lower, down 0.24%

• Fairly quiet session as the market continues to await more clarity around 2-April tariff deadline

• Retail inflows into US equities remain strong at US$67bn in 2025 (FT)

• China tech nears correction with company announcements weighing on sentiment, valuations nearing three-year average (BBG)

• Indonesian rupiah falls to GFC lows as asset selloff deepens (BBG)

• Southeast Asian markets seeing heavy foreign outflows in Q1 amid US tariffs, China rally (RT)

• Copper surges to new record high amid possibility Trump will impose hefty import tariffs on industrial metal (BBG)

• US dollar heading for worst month since 2023 as tariff concerns weigh on sentiment (BBG)

• Oil traders are turning more bullish as some expect heightened US sanctions to drive up prices (YH)

STOCKS

• Alibaba Chairman Joe Tsai says he is starting to see the beginning of a bubble in data centre buildout, arguing the pace of construction may outpace initial demand for AI services (BBG)

• Tesla's market share in Europe declines as sales drop for second consecutive month (BBG)

• DeepSeek releases updates to its V3 model that promise to deliver better programming capabilities (BBG)

• Meta to introduce $14 monthly fee for ad-free Instagram and Facebook in the UK (BBC)

• Shell said it will expand LNG sales by 4% to 5% annually until 2030 (BBG)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Atlanta Fed's Bostic sees only one rate cut this year, with inflation "sideways" (BBG)

TARIFFS & GEOPOLITICS

• Trump auto tariffs are on the way, but not all levies will be imposed 2-Apr (Reuters)

• EU intensifies efforts to prevent trade clash with Trump ahead of upcoming tariffs (BBG)

• India open to tariff cuts on US$23bn in US imports amid trade deal negotiations (RT)

• Trump's proposed levies on Chinese ships spark panic in US agriculture sector (FT)

• Israel draws up plans for longer-term occupation of Gaza in bid to extinguish Hamas (FT)

• Ukraine backs idea of full ceasefire with Russia following earlier talks with US officials (BBG)

ECONOMY

• Australia’s budget – everything you need to know (SMH)

• Australia's budget – winners, losers and impact on Australian assets (LW)

• China weighs extending subsidy program to services industries in bid to stimulate consumption (FT)

• China steel mills pledge to reduce output with steel futures at six-month low (BBG)

• China's labor-intensive manufacturing fading and millions of jobs could be lost, with repercussions for stability and growth (FT)

• US job applications surge from workers at DOGE-targeted agencies following raft of layoffs (AX)

• European car sales plummet as economic uncertainty and trade tensions take hold (BBG)

ASX TODAY

• Endeavour Chairman Ari Mervis undertaking major review which could ultimately lead to break-up and private equity sale (AFR)

• KMD Brands reports 1H25 revenue up 0.5% to $470.9m, statutory loss of $20.7m reflecting impact of leases, restructuring and software (KMD)

• Paladin Energy resumes Langer Heinrich operations but doesn't expect to achieve nameplate run-rate guidance of 6Mlb by end of CY25 (PDN)

• Talga's natural graphite mine in Sweden awarded strategic project status under the European Commission's Critical Raw Materials Act (TLG)

• Tuas reports 1H25 NPAT of SG$3.0m vs. SG$3.5m loss a year ago, revenue up 34% (TUA)

• Vulcan Energy phase one Lionheart project awarded strategic project status under Critical Raw Materials act (VUL)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Banks: Most of the big four banks were sold off intraday on Tuesday, most notably ANZ (opened 0.75% higher, closed down 3.1% and volumes were 132% higher than 20-day avg). No idea what the catalyst is (going to assume some major shareholder/fund offloading for now). It will be interesting to see if ANZ can bounce back strongly today after such an usual selloff

• Mixed overnight movers: S&P 500 like Real Estate, Healthcare and Utilities fell more than 1% overnight despite indices closing broadly higher. Overnight ETF watchlist also highlights some weakness for uranium and biotechs. On the flip side, commodities like gold, silver and copper continued to gather momentum, with related-mining ETFs all up 1-2%.

BROKER MOVES

• Fisher & Paykel upgraded to Buy from Neutral but target cut to NZ$37.30 from $38.10 (UBS)

• Ramelius Resources upgraded to Outperform from Neutral; target up to $2.50 from $2.30 (MQG)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Wed 26 Mar: Flight Centre (FLT) – $0.11

• Thu 27 Mar: Australian Clinical Labs (ACL) – $0.035, Eagers Automotive (APE) – $0.50, Ipd Group (IPG) – $0.064, Maas Group (MGH) – $0.035, Salter Brothers Emerging Companies (SB2) – $0.02, Wiseway Group (WWG) – $0.004

• Fri 28 Mar: Bravura Solutions (BVS) – $0.105, Centuria Industrial REIT (CIP) – $0.041, Centuria Office REIT (COF) – $0.025, Charter Hall Long Wale REIT (CLW) – $0.063, Comms Group (CCG) – $0.001, Dexus Convenience Retail REIT (DXC) – $0.051, Dexus Industria REIT (DXI) – $0.041, Garda Property Group (GDF) – $0.018, Rural Funds Group (RFF) – $0.029

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Aurizon (AZJ), Capral (CAA), Cue Energy (CUE), Dusk Group (DSK), Helloworld Travel (HLO), Medibank Private (MPL), Nick Scali (NCK), Peter Warren Automotive (PWR), Prime Financial (PFG), Santos (STO), and WT Financial Group (WTL)

• Listing: None

• Earnings: Tuas (TUA), Vulcan Energy (VUL)

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 11:30 am: Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (FEB)

• 6:00 pm: UK Inflation (FEB)

• 11:30 pm: US Durable Goods Orders (FEB)