Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, S&P 500 hits another record high + Gold stocks set to soar

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs again, gold marks its highest close on record amid falling yields and disappointing US manufacturing data, Fed policymakers including Mester and Williams expect take cuts to take place later this year and why gold, lithium and uranium stocks should be on your radar today.

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 rallies intraday to close at another all-time high (Source: TradingView)

ASX TODAY

• ASX 200 set for a strong open thanks to a strong lead from Wall Street and broad-based strength across commodity prices

• Cettire founder selling 7.2% via fixed-price bookbuild priced at $4.63 (AFR)

• NextDC mulls acquisition, eyes a portfolio of data centres from London-headquartered Global Switch (AFR)

• FIRB approves Lithium Power International Codelco scheme of arrangement

• Genex Power receives non-binding takeover offer from Electric Power Development Co

• Aussie Broadband upgraded to Overweight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley and target increased to $5.50 from $2.40

• Australian Finance Group upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Citi but target remains $1.50

• MRM Offshore initiated Buy at Citi with $2.60 target price 

• Platinum Asset Management upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Citi and target increased to $1.15 from $1.00 

• Select Harvest upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS and target increased to $5.10 from $4.20

MARKETS

• S&P 500 higher, finished near best levels and now up 16 of the last 18 weeks

• S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq all up for a fourth straight month in February

• US Treasury yields fell following softer-than-expected US manufacturing data

• Commodities rallied on lower yields and US dollar, with gold marking its highest close on record and WTI crude touching US$80 for the first time since Nov-23

• Global equities attracted another US$10bn in inflows for the week-ended 29 Feb – Tech is currently the preferred destination when it comes to equities 

• 'Golden age' for stock markets nearing an end (The Economist)

• China market rebound raises hopes momentum will continue (SCMP)

• Bitcoin, retail favourites surge as FOMO dynamic returns to market (Bloomberg)

• Corporate credit risk premiums continue to shrink (Bloomberg)

• Analysts play down bubble fears despite big rallies in tech, chipmakers shares (Yahoo)

INTERNATIONAL STOCKS

• Dell jumps on server sales fueled by excitement for AI work (Bloomberg)

• Meta on collision course with Australian government after announcing end to journalism funding deals (Guardian)

• Apple authorised sellers in China offer steep discounts on latest iPhone (SCMP)

• Reddit reportedly seeking valuation of up to US$6.5bn in IPO (Bloomberg)

• Domino's Pizza shares rallied on 25% dividend hike and US$1bn repurchase announcement (CNBC)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Fed’s Barkin said it is too soon to predict when the Fed will cut rates and there’s no urgency to do so given prices continue to remain abnormally high (Reuters)

• Fed's Mester says she still expects three rate cuts this year (Yahoo Finance)

• Fed's Williams reiterates rate cut likely later this year (Reuters)

• BOJ Governor Ueda walks back Takata's hawkish remarks (Bloomberg)

• ECB cutting too soon would be worse than delaying, survey shows (Bloomberg)

• New Zealand central bank says policy needs to stay restrictive for some time (Reuters)

GEOPOLITICS

• US says it struck missiles, drone that posed threat to Red Sea ships (Reuters)

• US official says Israel has "basically signed on" to six-week ceasefire (FT)

• Hamas delegation heads to Cairo for talks that could lead to temporary ceasefire, Israel participation uncertain (Bloomberg)

• Biden doubles down on strategy of realignment on trade with China (SCMP)

ECONOMY

• US manufacturing contracts further in February (Reuters)

• Eurozone inflation slows from January but misses forecasts (CNBC)

• Eurozone manufacturing activity eases slightly in February (Sharecast)

• China official PMIs mixed amid Lunar New Year holiday effects (Bloomberg)

• China home price forecasts downgraded (Reuters)

• South Korea exports rise for fifth consecutive month, aided by surge in chip shipments (Bloomberg)

• UK factories struggle in February as job cuts accelerate (Reuters)

• Japan factory activity shrinks at fastest pace since Aug-2020 (Reuters)

Sectors to Watch: All Things Commodities

The resource sector was a standout overnight thanks to a mix of lower yields, weaker US dollar and continued momentum from the previous day. We'll go through some of the key movers and things to watch below.

Gold had its best session since mid-December 2023, up 1.9% overnight to US$2,082 an ounce. This marks its highest close on record (but still below its brief US$2,144 high on 4 December 2023). The VanEck Gold Miners ETF finished the overnight session up 3.68% higher (but still down 12% year-to-date). This should drive some broad-based strength across local names. Personally, I'm more interested in seeing how names in the small-to-mid cap space perform, such as Emerald Resources (ASX: EMR), Southern Cross Gold (ASX: SXG), Auric Mining (ASX: AWJ) and Spartan Resources (ASX: SPR).

Gold spot price daily chart (Source: TradingView)

Lithium equities rallied for a fifth straight session overnight. Chinese lithium carbonate prices are now up around 25% in the last six sessions. Heavyweight names like SQM and Albemarle continued to rally overnight, up 3.4% and 3.6% respectively. Let's see if this translates to another strong session for local names.

Uranium has gone full circle this year. The Global X Uranium ETF kicked off this year with a ~20% breakout to levels not seen since February 2013. This was followed by a 16% pullback. The ETF has managed to find its footing around year-to-date lows and rallied 3.0% overnight.

Global X Uranium ETF daily chart (Source: TradingView)

ASX corporate actions occurring today:

• Trading ex-div: 23 companies are trading ex-dividend today. Check out the full list here

• Dividends paid: None

• Listing: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 11:30 am: Australia Building Permits (Jan)

• 11:30 am: Australian Company Gross Profits (Q4)