Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, S&P 500 flat but Nasdaq slips, US-Iran agree to halt strikes

In a nutshell:

• Wall Street ended a bruising week near flat, the S&P 500 (-0.05%) and Nasdaq (-0.24%) slightly lower, dragged by an AI and chip selloff and a reported OpenAI IPO delay

• US and Iran traded strikes over the weekend, the US hitting Iranian sites twice and Iran attacking Bahrain and Kuwait, though agreed to halt retaliatory strikes earlier this morning

• Sydney posted its weakest weekend home auction clearance rate since 2020 and Volkswagen plans to cut ~100,000 jobs globally or ~15% of its workforce 

Let's dive in.

• Major US benchmarks finished mixed and little changed, in a rather choppy and rangebound session 

• US weekly recap: Nasdaq (-4.60%), S&P 500 (-1.95%), Dow (+0.60%) and Russell 2000 (+1.02%)

• Apple (+3.1%) and Microsoft (+5.7%) bounced after Thursday’s selloff, where price hike fears raised concerns that memory costs will curb device demand 

• US 10-year yield down for a fourth-straight session to 4.37%, the lowest since 8-May

• Chipmakers led the weakness after a New York Times report that OpenAI may delay its IPO to 2027 following SpaceX's soft debut, stirring fresh doubts over AI infrastructure spending (CNBC) 

• Goldman Sachs says equities remain in buy-the-dip mode and that retail has been 2026's most consistent buyer, expecting more volatility but a still-higher trend (CNBC)

• Ongoing demand for AI data centers, power likely to feed IPO pipeline for several more years (BBG)

• Investors looking for additional AI exposure in Europe looking at heavy AI users, including banks, infrastructure providers (BBG)

• South Korea's AI stock rally flips from euphoria to anxiety amid a brutal week of swings (BBG)

• US and Iran agreed to halt retaliatory strikes and will meet Wednesday in Qatar’s capital after a sharp escalation over the weekend (BBG)

• US forces struck Iranian missile and drone storage sites and coastal radar on Saturday after an Iranian drone hit the cargo ship Ever Lovely leaving Hormuz, which Washington called a ceasefire breach 

• IRGC said it struck US military sites in Kuwait and Bahrain early Sunday in retaliation, deepening fears the fragile 60-day truce is unraveling

• US struck Iran for a second straight day on Sunday, hitting sites near Sirik, Bandar-e Lengeh and Qeshm Island, after an Iranian drone damaged the oil tanker Kiku in the strait

• Israel resumed strikes in southern Lebanon on Sunday, killing at least one, a day after a framework truce with Beirut

• Trump warned the US could be forced to militarily finish what it started and that the Islamic Republic would cease to exist if attacks continue, as VP Vance said violence would meet violence (NPR)

• OpenAI leaning toward delaying IPO until 2027, mindful of market volatility and SpaceX experience (NYT)

• Memory shortage hitting smaller electronics manufacturers harder than tech giants like Apple, Microsoft (CNBC)

• Samsung and SK Hynix to announce South Korean AI investment plans on Monday, Samsung to invest ~$646bn (BBG)

• Volkswagen plans to cut ~100,000 jobs, roughly 15% of staff, and end production at four German plants, its most radical overhaul in 89 years, to counter Chinese rivals (BBG)

• SpaceX was added to the Russell 1000 after Friday's close, drawing the newly listed stock into major index funds, with entry to the Nasdaq 100 set for July 6 (BBG)

• Trump threatened an immediate 100% tariff on goods from any country that imposes a digital services tax on US tech firms, saying it would override existing trade deals (BBG)

• NY Fed's Williams anticipates pricing pressures will moderate but inflation still too high (BBG)

• Chicago Fed's Goolsbee notes positive signs in PCE data, but warns inflation remains too high (CNBC)

• Economists cut ECB rate-hike forecasts after oil-price declines, increasing odds ECB stays on hold all year (BBG)

• US consumer sentiment rose to a 49.5 in June from May's record-low 44.8, just below 50.0 ests, helped by cheaper petrol but still near the lowest since the 1970s (BBG)

• S&P Global Ratings affirms US AA+ credit rating, says outlook is stable (BBG)

• US Amazon Prime Day spending of $26.4bn slightly ahead of estimates, up 9.3% year-on-year (BBG)

• Chinese industrial profit growth softened in April for first time since November, adding to worries around tepid domestic demand (BBG)

• EchoIQ preparing $100m equity raise after securing strategic investment from Pro Medicus last  Thursday (AFR)

• Forrestania Resources to acquire Edna May gold mine from Ramelius Resources for $300m (AFR)

• Healius transitions pathology leases and service arrangements with Ramsay subsidiaries into national agreement framework, effective 1-Jul (HLS)

• Horizon Oil completes acquisition of 139m Cue Energy shares (CUE)

• Nine Entertainment and Foxtel agree to team up in $5bn NRL broadcast deal, comprises of ~$520m per annum from Foxtel for pay-television component and ~$150m per year from Nine for free-to-air rights (AFR)

• Sydney posted its weakest weekend home auction clearance rate in more than six years, at 47.3%, the lowest since April 2020, Melbourne's was 40.2%, the lowest since September 2021 (BBG)

• Bounce from no man's land: A few interesting bounces overnight, including iShares Expanded Tech-Software up 4.0% after falling ~21% since 1-Jun. Commodities mostly higher, with gold up 1.56% to US$4,088 and copper up 1.0% to US$6.18 but equities mixed, with VanEck Gold Miners ETF up 1.7% but Global X Copper Miners ETF down 0.3%. So overall, very dicey out there as software and mining try to stabilise after a sharp 10-20% pullback from recent highs.

• Healthcare strength: S&P 500 Healthcare sector up 3.1% overnight, now up ~12.5% since 11-May. US Biotech ETF also up 2.5%, now up 20.5% since 10-Jun. Local healthcare sector has started to bottom, now up 14.9% since 3-Jun and first meaningful move above the 50-day moving average since August 2025.

• Capricorn Metals initiated Buy with $17.00 target (UBS)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Mon 29 Jun: APA Group (APA) – $0.305, Arena REIT (ARF) – $0.048, Aspen Group (APZ) – $0.055, BWP Group (BWP) – $0.098, Centuria Industrial REIT (CIP) – $0.042, Centuria Office REIT (COF) – $0.025, Charter Hall Group (CHC) – $0.258, Charter Hall Long Wale REIT (CLW) – $0.064, Charter Hall Retail REIT (CQR) – $0.064, Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT (CQE) – $0.043, Cromwell Property Group (CMW) – $0.007, Dexus (DXS) – $0.177, Dexus Convenience Retail REIT (DXC) – $0.052, Dexus Industria REIT (DXI) – $0.042, Digico Infrastructure REIT (DGT) – $0.06, DPM Metals (DPM) – $0.041, Garda Property Group (GDF) – $0.022, GDI Property Group (GDI) – $0.025, Gemlife Communities Group (GLF) – $0.011, Goodman Group (GMG) – $0.15, GPT Group (GPT) – $0.122, Growthpoint Properties Australia (GOZ) – $0.092, Homeco Daily Needs REIT (HDN) – $0.021, Mirvac Group (MGR) – $0.048, Reef Casino Trust (RCT) – $0.068, Region Group (RGN) – $0.072, Rural Funds Group (RFF) – $0.029, Stockland (SGP) – $0.162, Waypoint REIT (WPR) – $0.043 

• Tue 30 Jun: Abacus Group (ABG) – $0.043, Abacus Storage King (ASK) – $0.031, Lowell Resources Fund (LRT) – $0.15, Ophir High Conviction Fund (OPH) – $0.352  

• Wed 1 Jul: Clime Capital (CAM) – $0.014, Graincorp (GNC) – $0.14

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: Infratil (IFT)

• Earnings: Ricegrowers (SGLLV)

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

No major economic announcements.