Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, S&P 500 falls for a fourth day + A massive day for corporate earnings

ASX 200 futures are up 23pts (+0.25%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

In a nutshell:

• S&P 500 slipped for a fourth straight session as Mag-7 and growth-related names take a breather

• US retail earnings largely better-than-feared, though comps and traffic weak

• Massive day for ASX corporate earnings, check out the Live Blog for all the key results and numbers

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 lower but off worst levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks mostly lower, but off worst levels

• S&P 500 posted its fourth straight decline, with Mag-7 and growth stocks mostly lower, retail stocks soft on mixed earnings from major names

• Today’s big story: Another relatively quiet overnight session, a tech pullback is taking place amid valuation, AI bubble and competition concerns, retail earnings (Target, Lowe, Estee Lauder) relatively mixed but better-than-feared, Powell’s Jackson Hole speech to kick off on Friday

• Palantir stock dives 20% from highs in longest losing streak since April 2024 (CNBC)

• Potential stablecoin market could be worth trillions of dollars, says Goldman Sachs (YF)

• Trades positioning for September rate cut risk being upended if there is no specific dovish tilt from Powell at Jackson Hole (BBG)

• NZ Dollar hits four-month low as RBNZ cuts rates, signals more to come (FT )

STOCKS

• Target shares dip 6pc as comps and traffic remain soft, down 1.9% and 1.3% respectively, gross margins under pressure but company reaffirmed full-year guidance (BBG)

• Mixed Q2 retail results has analysts concerned this year's holiday season (RT)

• Estee Lauder flagged likely tariff hit of $100m in fiscal 2026 (RT)

• PepsiCo to increase soft drink concentrate prices by 10% beginning 7-Sep (BD)

• BHP and Rio Tinto lobby Trump to discuss Arizona copper mine after Trump lashes court ruling delaying project approval (FT)

TARIFFS

• India suspends cotton import duty in positive signal to US, relief for garment industry (RT)

• Bessent says China status quo working well, notes China is biggest tariff revenue source (BBG)

• China rare earth exports to US hit six-month high with volumes up 76% m/m in July (BBG)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Global central banks under increasing pressure from governments to lower interest rates in order to keep down borrowing costs (FT)

• RBNZ cuts rates by 25 bp, statement and forecasts leans dovish (BBG)

• Bank Indonesia surprises with a 25 bp rate cut to 5.00%, its fifth rate cut in a year (BT)

• Lagarde warns Eurozone growth to slow despite easing trade uncertainty (BBG)

• China keeps loan prime rates unchanged, authorities resist fresh stimulus to support growth (RT)

• Trump calls for Fed Governor Cook resignation after alleged mortgage fraud over two real estate purchases in 2021 (BBG).

ECONOMY

• UK inflation climbed 3.8% y/y in July vs. 3.7% ests and up from 3.6% in the prior month, Bank of England expects inflation to soar to 4.0% by September (BBG)

ASX TODAY

Today's a massive day for earnings, and we’ll be covering all the key results as they drop. Follow our Live Blog for the latest company announcements, consensus numbers, market moves, and economic updates.

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Reporting season volatility: Lots of abnormal moves that don't seem quite right this reporting season. For example, Hansen Technologies fell 5.8% on Wednesday, but briefly dived 15.6%, even though the company pre-guided its FY25 results.

• Day twos: Always keen to see how yesterday's beats/misses continue to move, notably The Lottery Corp (broad beat), James Hardie (fell >30% on guidance miss) and Yancoal (fell 11% after declaring tiny interim dividend).

BROKER MOVES

• Audinate upgraded to Buy from Neutral but target lowered to $7.10 from $10.85 (UBS)

• HMC Capital downgraded to Hold from Buy ;target cut to $3.60 from $8.15 (BP)

• James Hardie downgraded to Neutral from Buy; target cut to $36 from $50 (UBS)

• Transurban upgraded to Buy from Neutral;target up to $16.10 from $14.30 (CITI)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Thu 21 Aug: AMP (AMP) – $0.02, Brickworks (BKW) – $0.484, GWA Group (GWA) – $0.08, Insurance Australia Group (IAG) – $0.19, JB Hi-Fi (JBH) – $2.05, Washington H Soul Pattinson (SOL) – $0.59

• Fri 22 Aug: ARB Corporation (ARB) – $0.50, ASX (ASX) – $1.121, Iress (IRE) – $0.11, Lendlease (LLC) – $0.17, Mystate (MYS) – $0.11

• Mon 25 Aug: Contact Energy (CEN) – $0.196

• Tue 26 Aug: AGL Energy (AGL) – $0.25, Challenger (CGF) – $0.15, Deterra Royalties (DRR) – $0.13, HMC Capital (HMC) – $0.06

• Wed 27 Aug: Amotiv (AOV) – $0.22, Bell Financial (BFG) – $0.03, Ooh!Media (OML) – $0.022, Telstra (TLS) – $0.095, Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) – $0.20

• Thu 28 Aug: Beach Energy (BPT) – $0.06, Ignite (IGN) – $0.035, REA Group (REA) – $1.38, Ventia Services (VNT) – $0.107, Woodside Energy (WDS) – $0.813

• Fri 29 Aug: Ampol (ALD) – $0.40, Carlton Investments (CIN) – $0.68, Fiducian Group (FID) – $0.247, Orora (ORA) – $0.05, Pengana International Equities (PIA) – $0.014

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Dexus Industria REIT (DXI, Dexus Convenience Retail REIT (DXC)

• Earnings: Aeris Resources (AIS), Aspen Group (APZ), Autosports (ASG), Bega Cheese (BGA), Brambles (BXB), Capral (CAA), Codan (CDA), Charter Hall (CHC), Cog Financial Services (COG), Domain (DHG), Downer (DOW), EQT Holdings (EQT), Goodman Group (GMG), Healius (HLS), Insignia Financial (IFL), IPH (IPH), MA Financial Group (MAF), Maas Group (MGH), Megaport (MP1), Mayne Pharma (MYX), National Storage REIT (NSR), Northern Star Resources (NST), Novonix (NVX), NRW Holdings (NWH), Netwealth (NWL), Objective Corp (OCL), Peet (PPC), Peter Warren Automotive (PWR), Qube Holdings (QUB), Redox (RDX), Ridley Corp (RIC), Sonic Healthcare (SHL), Super Retail Group (SUL), Telix (TLX), Universal Store (UNI), Veem (VEE), Whitehaven Coal (WHC)

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: Xero (XRO)

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 9:00 am: Australia S&P Manufacturing and Services PMI Flash (Aug)

• 5:30 pm: Germany HCOB Manufacturing and Services PMI Flash (Aug)

• 6:30 pm: UK S&P Manufacturing and Services PMI Flash (Aug)

• 11:45 pm: US S&P Manufacturing and Services PMI Flash (Aug)