Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, S&P 500 closes at fresh all-time highs as bond yields cool

ASX 200 futures are up 50pts (+0.56%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks struggled off recent weakness, with the S&P 500 closing at all-time highs

• US ISM Services PMI showed strong activity and a slight improvement in price trends

• Bond yields slipped overnight, with the US 10-year down 5 bps to 4.16% or the lowest since 7 April

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 gapped up, trended higher to close at best levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks higher and closed near best levels

• S&P 500 closed at fresh all-time highs, Nasdaq and Dow closed just below record levels

• Strong breadth, with Equal-weight S&P 500 only marginally underperforming the official benchmark, all sectors higher except Utilities

• Fairly busy day of headlines and economic data (US ISM services strong, initial jobless claims soft) though core market narratives around Fed independence, imminent Fed rate cuts, negative seasonality etc. relatively unchanged

• US bond yields broadly lower, with the 10-year down 5 bps  to 4.16% or the lowest since 7 April

• Projected US tariff revenue may keep a lid on bond yields, traders say sentiment could turn if revenue falls (FT)

• Traders building bearish Treasury positions ahead of nonfarm payrolls data (BBG)

• Goldman Sachs says gold price could hit $5,000 amid Trump influence on Fed (BBG)

• China weighs measures to cool market rally, including removal some short selling curbs (BBG)

• Japan 30-year bond sale proceeds smoothly with result considered better-than-feared amid recent yield backup (BBG)

STOCKS

• GM cuts output, delays work at major EV factories amid weak demand (RT)

• Apple planning to launch AI-powered web search tool net year, integrate into Siri and Safari (BBG)

• HP guidance underwhelms, reigniting concerns about margins in AI server business (BBG)

• Salesforce sales guidance slightly misses estimates, raising doubts about Agentforce AI tool, shares slip 4.8% (BBG)

• American Eagle's ad campaign with Sydney Sweeney revitalises brand, management now forecast low single-digit sales growth (RT)

• Tesla says robotaxi app now available to general public, service will be rolled out beyond Austin, Texas in near-term (BBG)

• BYD cuts this year's sales target by as much as 16% amid competitive pressures (RT)

TARIFFS

• Trump officially files appeal to Supreme Court over blocked tariffs (YF)

• Trump urges Supreme Court to expedite appeal on rejected global tariffs (AX)

• European parliamentarians attack EU-US trade deal and demand changes (FT)

• White House and Japan near deal to implement lower tariffs on Japanese auto imports to US (RT)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Fed officials reference labor-market risks as they weigh prospect of rate cuts (RT)

• Fed's latest Beige Book shows mixed economic conditions, persistent tariff overhang (BBG)

• RBA Governor Bullock says strengthening consumption may limit scope for rate cuts (BBG)

ECONOMY

• US August ISM Services PMI up to 52.0 vs. 50.1 in July and 51.0 consensus, now highest since Feb-25, new orders index increased sharply, prices index inched lower (BBG)

• US initial jobless claims rise to highest level since June (BBG)

ASX TODAY

• It's pretty much tumbleweeds out there right now. Companies have wrapped up their reporting cycle, so there's no fresh information coming through, and analysts have finished crunching all the numbers. (So ... have a good weekend?)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Market bounce: US stocks bounced strongly, and the ASX is set to recoup most of Wednesday's ~1.8% selloff. Still, lots of overhangs to work through, including tonight's US employment data, rising bond volatility, political and fiscal/debt uncertainty and negative seasonality.

• Resources pullback: Despite the strong bounce (at the index level), plenty of resource-related ETFs struggled overnight. Uranium, Nickel, Rare Earths/Strategic Metals, Copper and Gold all down around 1-2%.

BROKER MOVES

Broker data currently pending.

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Fri 5 Sep: Adrad Holdings (AHL) – $0.021, Aussie Broadband (ABB) – $0.024, Coles Group (COL) – $0.32, Eagers Automotive (APE) – $0.24, Generation Development Group (GDG) – $0.01, Microequities Asset Management Group (MAM) – $0.02, Objective Corporation (OCL) – $0.13, Pacific Current Group (PAC) – $0.28, Peet (PPC) – $0.05, SDI (SDI) – $0.019, Viva Energy Group (VEA) – $0.028, Vitura Health (VIT) – $0.002

• Mon 8 Sep: AUB Group (AUB) – $0.66, Australian Finance Group (AFG) – $0.053, Blackwall (BWF) – $0.005, Cash Converters International (CCV) – $0.01, Smartgroup Corporation (SIQ) – $0.195, Super Retail Group (SUL) – $0.64

• Tue 9 Sep: Bluescope Steel (BSL) – $0.30, CSL (CSL) – $2.485, Ive Group (IGL) – $0.085, Motorcycle Holdings (MTO) – $0.05, News Corporation (NWS) – $0.108, Perseus Mining (PRU) – $0.05, Regis Healthcare (REG) – $0.081, Spark New Zealand (SPK) – $0.11, Wagners Holding Company (WGN) – $0.032

• Wed 10 Sep: Adairs (ADH) – $0.04, Brambles (BXB) – $0.32, CUE Energy Resources (CUE) – $0.005, EVT (EVT) – $0.22, Echelon Resources (ECH) – $0.006, Glennon Small Companies (GC1) – $0.02, Idp Education (IEL) – $0.05, Kip Mcgrath Education Centres (KME) – $0.005, LGI (LGI) – $0.013, Medibank Private (MPL) – $0.102, Naos Ex-50 Opportunities Company (NAC) – $0.015, Naos Small Cap Opportunities Company (NSC) – $0.013, Perpetual Equity Investment Company (PIC) – $0.04, Regis Resources (RRL) – $0.05, Summerset Group Holdings (SNZ) – $0.087

• Thu 11 Sep: Air New Zealand (AIZ) – $0.01, Austin Engineering (ANG) – $0.009, Bhagwan Marine (BWN) – $0.005, Breville Group (BRG) – $0.19, Comms Group (CCG) – $0.001, Cti Logistics (CLX) – $0.055, Joyce Corporation (JYC) – $0.17, Kogan.com (KGN) – $0.07, Mcmillan Shakespeare (MMS) – $0.77, NZME (NZM) – $0.027, Navigator Global Investments (NGI) – $0.047, Pepper Money (PPM) – $0.064, Perpetual (PPT) – $0.54, Westgold Resources (WGX) – $0.03, XRF Scientific (XRF) – $0.045

• Fri 12 Sep: Ariadne Australia (ARA) – $0.005, CAR Group (CAR) – $0.415, Cleanaway Waste Management (CWY) – $0.032, Experience Co (EXP) – $0.003, G8 Education (GEM) – $0.02, Wisetech Global (WTC) – $0.119

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Brickworks (BKW), GWA Group (GWA), JB Hi-Fi (JBH), Korvest (KOV), Washington H Soul Pattinson (SOL)

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 4:00 pm: UK Retail Sales (Jul)

• 10:30 pm: Canada Unemployment Rate (Aug)

• 10:30 pm: US Non Farm Payrolls (Aug)