Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, S&P 500 and Nasdaq snap three-day losing streak

ASX 200 futures are up 21pts (+0.23%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

In a nutshell:

• S&P 500 and Nasdaq snapped a three-day losing streak

• Gold and silver prices continue to hover around record levels

• Trump announced a long list of new tariffs on drugs, heavy trucks, furniture and more

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 higher, closed near best levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks higher and closed near best levels

• S&P 500 and Nasdaq snapped a three-day losing streak but still lower for the week

• US weekly recap: Dow (-0.15%), S&P 500 (-0.31%), Russell 2000 (-0.59%), Nasdaq (-0.65%) 

• Markets bouncing after recent weakness, relatively positive overnight economic data including in-line August core PCE, solid spending and income data, Michigan consumer sentiment noted slight easing in inflation expectations

• Today’s big story: Trump unleashed fresh tariff updates for heavy trucks, housing products, furniture, branded drugs and more

• Long-dated bond pressure eases globally as yields fall, investors seek bargains (BBG)

• US dollar poised for strongest week since August as US data reshapes Fed interest-rate cut expectations (BBG)

• How does the US market react to a government shutdown (CNBC)

• Equity funds saw inflows last week, breaking two weeks of outflows on renewed AI hype (RT)

• Analysts say equity markets could face headwinds from high inflation, record valuations, and soft earnings (RT)

• Tech firms invest heavily in data centers, raising parallels to the dot-com bubble (WSJ)

• Analysts ask if OpenAI can justify massive investments in AI infrastructure and data centers (TC)

STOCKS

• Intel reached out to TSMC about potential investment, manufacturing partnerships (RT)

• Walmart gearing up to prepare America's largest private workforce for an AI-driven future (AP)

• Amazon to pay $2.5bn to settle FTC allegations of unauthorised Prime enrollments and cancellation difficulties (AX)

• Google faces potential first fine under new EU tech rules as Commission drafts decision (RT)

• Costco delivers better than expected earnings beat, driven by essential sales growth, steady consumer, but shares tank 2.9% (BBG)

• Starbucks to close hundreds of stores and lay off 900 workers, incurring $1bn in costs amid declining sales (FT)

• CoreWeave expands OpenAI data center agreements to $22.4bn, highlighting AI demand surge (BBG)

TARIFFS

• Trump considers policy to reduce semiconductor imports by mandating local one-to-one production ratio (WSJ)

• Trump imposes 100% tariffs on branded pharmaceuticals unless companies establish US manufacturing plants, tariffs does not apply to countries with negotiated trade deals (BBG)

• Trump announces new 25% tariffs on heavy trucks and additional tariffs on furniture (NYT)

• China's Xi is pushing for US concession on Taiwan's independence in trade discussion with US (WSJ)

• Trump signs executive order on TikTok deal, values TikTok US at $14bn, with Oracle and partners to control 45% (BBG)

• China hints it will buy US soybeans if Washington removes 'unreasonable tariffs' (RT)

• China secures 53% of global ship orders by tonnage in 2025, despite US port fees (RT)

• Japan says it has gained US most-favored nation status on tariffs for chips and drugs amid new Trump measures (RT)

• EU Commission to impose 25-50% tariffs on Chinese steel to protect local industry (RT)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Fed's Daly says rates are modestly restrictive, labour market softness prompts cautious monitoring (BBG)

• US bank reserves fall below $3tn for seventh consecutive week, indicating liquidity drain (BBG)

• Mexico's central bank trims rates by 25 bps to 7.5% due to sluggish growth (BBG)

• Eurozone consumers raise inflation expectations to 2.8% for next year, highest since August 2022 (RT)

ECONOMY

• US August core PCE up 0.2% month-on-month, in-line with consensus, August personal spending up 0.6% vs. 0.5% estimates (RT)

• German industry faces crisis as Volkswagen and Bosch cut jobs amid declining demand (BBG)

• Used EV market is heating up with sales increasing by 34% over the year-earlier period (BBG)

ASX TODAY

• Bravura Solutions appoints Colin Greenhill as CEO (BVS)

• MinRes completes upgrades to the Onslow Iron private haul road (MIN)

• Vulcan Energy signs major supply contract for Phase One renewable energy and lithium project, including full scope of services required for engineering, procurement and construction (VUL)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Nickel: A massive move for the Sprott Nickel Miners ETF (NIKL) overnight, though this largely reflects a 25% rally for one of its top holdings (Indonesia's Merdeka Battery Materials). The catalyst behind the move remains unclear.

• Gold, silver and precious metals: Both gold and silver continue to climb record highs, respective mining ETFs both slightly higher overnight. Also seeing some very strong moves for palladium and platinum.

• Coal: Newcastle coal futures up 1.4% to US$108.75 overnight. Lots of coal names moving in a V-shape towards 1-2 month highs.

BROKER MOVES

• Pantoro upgraded to Hold from Sell; target up to $5.35 from $4.40 (BP)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Mon 29 Sep: Energy One (EOL) – $0.075, FOS Capital (FOS) – $0.01, Garda Property Group (GDF) – $0.02, Gold Road Resources (GOR) – $0.437, Gryphon Capital Income Trust (GCI) – $0.012, Lindsay Australia (LAU) – $0.015, Rural Funds (RFF) – $0.029, Shine Justice (SHJ) – $0.035, Sims (SGM) – $0.13

• Tue 30 Sep: Genusplus Group (GNP) – $0.036, Staude Capital Global Value Fund (GVF) – $0.033, Tasmea (TEA) – $0.06

• Wed 1 Oct: Cedar Woods Properties (CWP) – $0.19, Nick Scali (NCK) – $0.33

• Thu 2 Oct: ARB Corporation (ARB) – $0.35, Cosol (COS) – $0.012, Imperial Pacific (IPC) – $0.07, London City Equities (LCE) – $0.025, Wam Strategic Value (WAR) – $0.03

• Fri 3 Oct: Steamships Trading Company (SST) – $0.128

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Adrad Holdings (AHL), Commonwealth Bank (CBA), Cogstate (CGS), Karoon Energy (KAR), Newmont (NEM)

• Earnings: Black Cat Syndicate (BC8), Iperonix (IPX)

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

No major economic announcements.