Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, S&P 500 and Nasdaq slip as tech selling resumes, Gold and oil prices ease

In a nutshell:

• US benchmarks mixed, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq lower as the one-day chip rebound faded, while the Dow eked out a small gain

• Oil retreated after the US Energy Secretary said Strait of Hormuz traffic is increasing, easing the Iran-driven supply premium

• All eyes on US May CPI (out tonight) after April inflation hit 3.8%, consensus expects headline inflation to rise to 4.2%

Let's dive in.

• Major US benchmarks finished mixed but well off intraday lows, as a chip-led rebound lost momentum

• S&P 500 briefly dipped 2.2% after Trump said the US "must respond" to Iran over a reported attack on a US helicopter, before recovering into the close

• Breadth was strong, with nine sectors green, Dow in positive territory (+0.17%) and Equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.76%) notably higher

• Volatile session for commodities, notable moves include Brent (-1.8%) dipping as much as 4.8%, gold down a further 1.6% after closing below the 200-day last Friday, aluminium now down 6.1% in the last five sessions, copper finished flattish despite rallying as much as 2.1% intraday

• iShares Semiconductor ETF fell 1.6% after Monday's ~6% bounce, having tumbled ~10% on Friday in its worst session in six years (CNBC) 

• Wells Fargo says potential sugar-rush behind AI-driven market surge likely over (BBG)

• Institutional demand surges for record-breaking SpaceX public offering, number of orders has increased since Monday (BBG)

• Trump said the US "must respond" to Iran after a reported attack on a US helicopter, briefly sending equities lower before the strikes appeared to end without further escalation (CNBC)

• Fragile April ceasefire nearly unraveled this week after Iran fired missiles at Israel in retaliation for strikes in Lebanon, with Israel hitting back (CNBC)

• US and Iran have reached "hazy outlines" of a nuclear agreement, though unclear when more talks will take place (NYT)

• Iran's Quds Force commander said a "new security belt of the resistance" would stretch from the Strait of Hormuz to the Bab al-Mandab (CNN)

• JPMorgan analysts noted that despite the naval blockade and a steep fall in commercial traffic, surprising volumes of crude and products still appear to be transiting the strait (CNBC) 

• EIA does not expect Strait of Hormuz traffic to ramp up to pre-Iran war level until early 2027 (EIA)

• EIA projects 2026 Brent price average at US$95.39/bbl, up from prior US$94.85, 2027 forecast steady at US$79.39 (EIA)

• Apple fell 3.6% after CEO Tim Cook's final WWDC keynote, with shares having fallen close to 2% on Monday on the Siri AI update reception (NPR)

• SpaceX IPO demand now reportedly approaching four times oversubscribed (RT)

• BofA trading desk revenue trending higher than the 15% growth the bank forecasted last month (BBG)

• US trade deficit narrowed to $55.9bn in April from $56.6bn in March, with the year-to-date gap down 49.1% on a year earlier (RT)

• The Section 122 global tariff remains in legal limbo after the Court of International Trade ruled it invalid on May 7, with the government appealing and collections continuing (RS)

• US May CPI is due tonight, a key catalyst after April inflation accelerated to 3.8% year-on-year, the highest since 2023, driven by a 17.9% jump in energy costs (BBG)

• China's May exports rose 19.4% year-on-year and imports jumped 27.4%, beating expectations, with the trade surplus widening to $103.22bn (FX)

• Australia's Consumer Sentiment Index fell 2.9% to 80.6 in June, with house price expectations dropping 14.9% (MI)

• KMD Brands receives interest from international private equity firms in regards to certain brands or the company as a whole (The Aus)

• Wesfarmers issue WestCEF lithium project update at Strategy Day meeting, 2H26 earnings to be higher half-on-half as higher pricing offsets lower sales (WES)

• Defensive rotation: Wall Street experienced a very similar session to our Tuesday session, with strong gains for defensive/value oriented sectors. It'll be interesting to see how sectors perform amid this semis/chip pullback. Over the weekend, BofA told its clients to take profits as seven of its ten bear market signposts have triggered. Hyperscaler capex is on pace to hit 100% of operating cash flow (vs ~40% in 2023). These megacaps will soon spend every dollar they make on AI infrastructure

• Commodity volatility: A very dicey overnight session for commodities, with most giving back early gains (copper up 0.08% vs. session high of 2.1%) or continued to trend lower (aluminium on a five-day losing streak, gold getting a bit ugly down 1.6% to a fresh year-to-date low). This drove most resource-related overnight ETFs lower. The risk/momentum-heavy Uranium Miners (-3.9%) led the decline, while silver, gold and copper miner ETFs fell 1-2%.

• Qualitas initiated Buy with $4.00 target (Citi)

• REA downgraded to Neutral from Buy; target cut to $165 from $213 (UBS)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Tue 9 Jun: Infratil (IFT) – $0.095, Whitefield Income (WHI) – $0.006

• Wed 10 Jun: Tasmea (TEA) – $0.10, Tower (TWR) – $0.041, WCM Global Growth (WQG) – $0.022

• Thu 11 Jun: Champion Iron (CIA) – $0.02, Future Generation Global (FGG) – $0.03, Sandon Capital (SNC) – $0.005

• Fri 12 Jun: ALS (ALQ) – $0.231, Dyno Nobel (DNL) – $0.046

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: Webjet Group (WJL) 

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: Boresight (BST) at 12:00 pm 

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 11:30 am: China Inflation

• 10:30 pm: US Inflation

• 11:45 pm: Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision (Ests: Hold at 2.25%)