Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit sixth all-time high, Copper and aluminium extend gains

In a nutshell:

• S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq closed at fresh records, the S&P's first close above 7,600, though breadth was narrow and small caps led

• HPE soared 19% on a blowout AI-server quarter and raised guidance, while Marvell jumped about 32% after Nvidia's CEO called it the next trillion-dollar company.

• Oil eased from session highs as US-Iran signals stayed mixed, copper hit fresh all-time highs while Bitcoin tumbled to a two-month low of ~US$67,000

Let's dive in.

• Major US benchmarks grinded higher, with the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq closing at record highs

• S&P 500 and Nasdaq have now set six consecutive all-time highs

• Breadth better, but still narrow, as four sectors fell and small caps led

• Equity supply under scrutiny, with a wave of equity issuance to hit the market in the coming months (Google $80bn, SpaceX ~$75bn IPO at near-trillion valuation, Anthropic raising ~$965bn post-money, OpenAI ~$100bn at private market levels)

• Bloomberg analysts note Alphabet’s $80bn equity issuance would swing net equity supply in 4Q25 from -$44bn to +$40bn 

• Bitcoin tumbled to ~US$67,100, down 8.5% in the last two sessions amid record spot-ETF outflows and risk-off positioning (YF)

• JPMorgan stayed constructive on the Magnificent Seven, seeing further upside after this year's valuation reset but not a repeat of last year's tech-led rally (TS)

• Jim Cramer cautioned against the parabolic AI moves, pointing to Marvell's roughly 29% jump and warning that such enthusiasm draws money away from other sectors (CNBC)

• US convertible bond issuance tracking for record year, AI-related companies take advantage of strong investor interest (FT)

• Tehran has not communicated with Washington for a few days, Iranian media says taking a "stern" approach to talks (RT)

• Trump asserts negotiations with Iran have been going on "continuously" (TS)

• US and Iranian forces were involved in fresh clashes near the Strait of Hormuz, raising fears the fragile ceasefire could unravel (BBG)

• US drawing down SPR faster to cushion the Hormuz closure, with about 58 million barrels, or 14% of the reserve, released since the war began, thinning the buffer ahead of hurricane season (CNN)

• Mixed messages from Trump and Netanyahu on Lebanon added to the uncertainty, while Lebanese officials said further ceasefire talks are scheduled this week

• Trump said he deterred Netanyahu from a major raid on Beirut and insisted a potential peace agreement could surpass a military victory, though it was not a simple thing (CNN)

• Anthropic files for a major IPO that could value it over $1tn, igniting competition with OpenAI and SpaceX (AX)

• HPE Q2 FY26 revenue up 40% to $10.68bn, ~8% above ests, with networking up 148% to $2.7bn and EPS $0.79 beating by ~46%. Raised FY26 revenue growth guidance to 29-33%. Shares jumped about 26% (BBG)

• Marvell Technology surged ~32% after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang called it the next trillion-dollar company on stage at the Computex conference in Taipei (CNBC)

• Alphabet unveiled plans to raise $80bn, about half via an at-the-market stock sale, to fund its AI buildout, including a $10bn investment from Berkshire Hathaway (CNBC)

• Palo Alto Networks Q3 revenue up 31% to $3.0bn, EPS $0.85 beating ests by about 8%, with remaining performance obligations up 36% to $18.4bn. Raised FY26 guidance. Shares up ~2% after hours (TS)

• McDonald's announces global growth strategy to attract customers amid rising competition and inflation (CNBC)

• SpaceX negotiating to pay less than 0.75% for the $75bn it plans to raise in IPO, typically 1-3% for deal of that size (BBG)

• Shake Shack cuts guidance, CEO Lynch cites macroeconomic uncertainty, competitive landscape, shares down 8% (WSJ)

• Dollar General management says shoppers cutting back on food, other household expenses due to rising gas prices (BBG)

• European Parliament voted to remove import duties on US goods to comply with the EU-US trade deal (RT)

• Trump signs proclamation amending tariffs on some copper, aluminum and iron imports (RT)

• Markets held to pricing no Fed rate cuts in 2026, leaning toward a possible hike, after the strong April JOLTS print, with the mid-June FOMC, the first under new Chair Kevin Warsh, in focus (CNBC)

• Cleveland Fed's Hammack says rate hikes may be needed soon if elevated inflation pressures continue to mount (RT)

• BOE's Greene sees growing case for rate hikes due to Iran, inflation, says bank can't rely on market tightening to do its job (RT)

• US JOLTS April job openings surged about 731,000 to roughly 7.6 million, far above the 6.9 million expected, signalling a still-tight labour market and reinforcing the no-cut narrative (CNBC)

• Eurozone May flash CPI accelerated to 3.2% year-on-year, up from 3.0% in April and well above the ECB's 2% target, as war-driven energy costs kept price pressures elevated (BBG)

• US to boost nuclear fuel production capacity by as much as 50% in effort to reduce reliance on Russia (FT)

• Central Asia Metals proposes to acquire Cygnus Metals for $232m in scrip offer (CY5)

• Megaport launches $827m fully underwritten entitlement offer, new shares issued at $14.30 or a 13.9% discount to last close, secured four new AI infrastructure contacts valued at ~$458m, proceeds to fund capex primarily for high-performance GPUs (MP1)

• A weak, bifurcated market: The ASX 200 managed to close breakeven on Tuesday, as Tech (+4.7%), Materials (+1.2%) and Telcos (+1.0%) offset sharp declines for Banks, Healthcare, Staples and Real Estate (all of which fell more than 1%). At some point yesterday, ~150 constituents were trading lower. When you look at YTD sector performance, the only Energy (+24.4%) and Materials (+20.1%) are positive, while everything else is down between 1-33%.

• Uranium, copper: Global X Uranium ETF up 5.7% overnight after Urenco USA, the only commercial-scale nuclear fuel producer in the US, was seeking to lift capacity by ~50% to support AI power demand and wean the US off Russian supply. Copper also up 1.6% to a record US$6.71 overnight, driving a strong response from the Copper Miners ETF, up 4.0%.

• Abacus Storage King REIT downgraded to Hold from Buy; target cut to $1.50 from $1.70 (Bell Potter)

• Harvey Norman downgraded to Neutral from Outperform; target cut to $4.50 from $6.60 (Macquarie)

• Inghams downgraded to Underperform from Neutral; target remains $1.80 (Macquarie)

• Integral Diagnostics initiated Overweight with $3.50 target (Morgan Stanley)

• TPG Telecom upgraded to Neutral from Underweight; target up to $3.70 from $3.60 (JPMorgan)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Wed 3 Jun: Qualitas Real Estate Income Fund (QRI) – $0.011

• Thu 4 Jun: None

• Fri 5 Jun: None

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: None

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 9:00 am: Australia Ai Group Industry Index

• 11:30 am: Australia GDP Growth

• 11:45 am: China RatingDog PMI

• 12:00 am: US ISM Services PMI