Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit another record high, Gold prices surge

ASX 200 futures are up 12pts (+0.13%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

In a nutshell:

• S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit another fresh all-time high but both indices finished near session lows

• Gold prices rallied 1.4%, driving gold miners broadly higher overnight

• China launches US$167bn mega-dam project in Tibet

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 gapped up but gave back most of its early gains (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks finished mixed, closing near worst levels after selling off in the last 90 minutes of trading

• S&P 500 and Nasdaq still managed to set fresh all-time highs, though the Equal-weight S&P 500 finished lower and underperformed the official benchmark by 48 bps

• Relatively uneventful session, with tech stocks edging benchmarks higher thanks to lower yields and solid earnings 

• S&P to see a double-digit increase in the second half of 2025 thanks to megacap tech, according to Wells Fargo (BBG)

• Japanese PM to stay after historic election loss, market uncertainty looms (BBG)

• Hedge funds dump Japanese equities before election, Ishiba's weakened grip spooks investors (RT)

• China's bonds fall as mega-dam project signals stimulus, boosting economy and curbing deflation (BBG)

STOCKS

• Stellantis expects a net loss of 2.3bn euros amid the early effects of U.S. tariffs (CNBC)

• Wise faces shareholder rebellion over US listing, voting rights changes contested by co-founder (FT)

• Figma eyes $16.4bn valuation in IPO, boosting hopes for tech listing revival (RT)

• Polymarket to legally return to U.S. after latest acquisition (AX)

• Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing hits $1tn market cap, fueled by AI boom and strong sales (BBG)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Trump's tariffs may force global central banks to cut rates, despite inflation concerns (BBG)

• China holds steady on lending rates, economic resilience reduces stimulus pressure (CNBC)

• Bank of Canada interest rate cuts unlikely this year, economists predict no change until 2026 (BBG)

TARIFFS & GEOPOLITICS

• EU and US negotiators to meet this week, attempt to close a deal before 1-Aug deadline, when 30% tariffs on EU imports set to take effect (BBG)

• White House insists 1-Aug looms as 'hard deadline' for Trump's tariffs (CNBC)

• US June import container volume plunges 7.9% year-on-year, raising concerns over Trump's tariffs impact on trade (BBG)

• China ramps up rare earth magnet exports, including to US, after supply squeeze (BBG)

• South Korea seeks tariff relief from US as 25% duties loom on 1-Aug (BBG)

ECONOMY

• Japan election spurs deficit fears, but economy may shield bonds from immediate spike (RT)

• New Zealand inflation up 2.7% in the second quarter vs. 2.5% consensus (BBG)

ASX TODAY

Note: The Live Blog will not be running today

• Brookfield snaps up 19.9pc interest in Cromwell Property Group (AFR)

• Insignia Financial reports $8.5b uplift in FUMA to $330b - Insignia to be acquired by CC Capital in $3.3b deal

• BetMakers delivered record quarterly profits following a major overhaul of its operation

• Champion Iron has partnered with Nippon Steel and Sojitz to jointly develop its Kami iron ore project in Canada

• Genesis Energy aims to secure long-term power supply, signing a non-binding deal to extend the life of a Huntly Rankine unit to 2035

• Fletcher Building is considering selling parts of its construction division, including Higgins, Brian Perry Civil, and Major Projects

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Fading action: Major US benchmarks struggled to hold session highs, while breadth was relatively weak. While ASX 200 futures imply a small bounce, the overnight lead was not very strong.

• Gold: Gold prices gained 1.4% overnight, drawing a strong response for the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (+3.7%). This should drive some positive flow for local names.

• Lithium: Chinese lithium carbonate futures rallied 2.5% on Monday, driving names like Pilbara Minerals 4.0% higher to a four-month high.

BROKER MOVES

• AMP downgraded to Neutral from Outperform but target up to $1.70 from $1.44 (MQG)

• AMP downgraded to Neutral from Overweight but target up to $1.55 from $1.40 (JPM)

• Imdex upgraded to Buy from Hold; target up to $3.05 from $2.65 (BP)

• Regis Resources upgraded to Neutral from Sell but target cut to $4.60 from $4.75 (UBS)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Tue 22 Jul: Finbar Group (FRI) – $0.02

• Wed 23 Jul: Plato Income Maximiser (PL8) – $0.006 

• Thu 24 Jul: None

• Fri 25 Jul: None

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Eildon Capital (EDC)

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 11:30 am: RBA Meeting Minutes

• 10:30 pm: Fed Chair Powell Speech