Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, S&P 500 and Nasdaq gain, Markets await Trump tariffs

ASX 200 futures are up 28pts (+0.35%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• The S&P 500 and Nasdaq continued to edge higher ahead of Trump's highly anticipated tariff announcement

• Europe inflation eased to 2.2% in March, boosting ECB rate cut expectations

• Mixed economic data overnight, with US manufacturing slumping into contraction territory, while Europe is showing early signs of a recovery

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 choppy but higher (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• US stocks finished mostly higher and near best levels

• Bounce gathered momentum for a second day, after the S&P 500 finished positive yesterday from a session low of -1.65%

• Tech-heavy Nasdaq outperformed while the Dow finished slightly lower – but Dow still outperforming over the past week and month

• Market remains fixated on Trump’s upcoming reciprocal tariff announcement and worries about a 20% universal tariff

• Stagflation concerns continue to rise after March ISM manufacturing missed market expectations and fell back into contraction territory, with new orders at the lowest since May-23 and prices indexes at the  highest since Jun-22

• China’s state-backed property stocks rally on expectations of market share consolidation as they increase land purchases in core cities (BBG)

• Goldman Sachs cut its targets on European stocks due to expected tariffs and weaker economic growth (BBG)

STOCKS

• Ford sales surged in March as consumers snap up cars ahead of the threat of higher prices due to tariffs (CNN)

• General Motors reported ~17% jump 1Q25 US sales (RT)

• Meta's chief of AI research to depart company in May (BBG)

• OpenAI says it has raised US$40bn, valuing company at US$300bn (AX)

• Tesla's sales in France fell 37% in March vs. broader industry decline of 15% (BBG)

• Drugmaker stocks tumble after key FDA official ousted (RT)

• Berkshire Hathaway plans to sell yen bonds and increase investments in Japan (BBG)

CENTRAL BANKS

• NY Fed's Williams and Richmond Fed's Barkin continue to expect rates to remain steady for ‘some time’ amid tariff risks (YH)

• ECB officials divided on April rate cut amid trade tensions and economic uncertainty (BBG)

• RBA on hold, sees inflation risks on both sides (BBG)

TARIFFS & GEOPOLITICS

• Trump to unveil reciprocal tariffs 2-Apr, reports continue to flag a myriad of moving pieces (WP)

• Tariffs to take immediate effect after Wednesday announcement (BBG)

• White House aides have drafted proposal to impose tariffs of ~20% on most imports to US (WP)

• US autos lobbying Trump to exclude low-cost vehicle parts from tariffs (BBG)

• China, Japan and South Korea agree on joint response to US tariffs (RT)

ECONOMY

• Eurozone inflation falls to 2.2% in March vs. 2.3% ests in likely boost for rate cut bets (RT)

• US ISM Manufacturing PMI falls into contraction territory, down to 49 in March from 50.3 in February and below 49.5 ests (RT)

• Eurozone manufacturing PMI bounced to 48.6 in March, still in contraction but the highest in two years (BBG)

• UK factory exports fell at the fastest pace in 18 months due to decline in orders and tariff jitters, manufacturing PMI hit a 17-month low of 44.9 in March (BBG)

• Australian retail sales rose 0.2% month-on-month in February, below 0.3% ests, growth was largely driven by food and eating out while demand for household goods eased (RT)

ASX TODAY

• Biome reports 3Q25 revenue growth of 41% to $4.5m, expects another quarter of positive EBITDA (BIO)

• MinRes and Managing Director Chris Ellison served with class action proceeding filed on March 31 (MIN)

• Southern Cross Electrical completes previously announced acquisition of Force Fire, reiterates FY25 EBITDA guidance of $53m (SXE)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Not a whole lot: Markets and company announcements have been relatively slow this week ahead of the highly anticipated tariff announcement, which is expected to drop around 7 am on Thursday.

• Small bounce dynamics: The ASX 200 rallied 1.04% on Tuesday but still down 0.7% for the week and trading below the 20-day moving average. The bounce is expected to continue today, likely driven by growth-y sectors.

BROKER MOVES

• Computershare downgraded to Underweight from Neutral but target up to $35 from $34 (JPM) 

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Wed 2 Apr: ARB Corporation (ARB) – $0.34, Harvey Norman (HVN) – $0.12.

• Thu 3 Apr: Clime Capital (CAM) – $0.014, Lindsay Australia (LAU) – $0.023, Ridley Corporation (RIC) – $0.048

• Fri 4 Apr: FFI Holdings (FFI) – $0.10

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Adrad Holdings (AHL), Big River Industries (BRI), Count (CUP), Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP), Humm Group (HUM), Reece (REH), Seek (SEK), Servcorp (SRV), Tower (TWR), Treasury Wine Estates (TWE), Woodside Energy Group (WDS), and Worley (WOR)

• Listing: Marimaca Copper Corp (MC2) at 1:00 pm 

• Earnings: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 9:00 am: Australia AI Group Industry Index (MAR)

• 11:30 am: Australia Building Permits (FEB)