Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, S&P 500 and Dow close at record highs, Miners set to extend gains

ASX 200 futures are up 27pts (+0.30%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• S&P 500, Dow and Russell 2000 closed at fresh all-time highs

• Powell under investigation over cost overruns on renovations at the Fed's headquarters

• Fed independence fears drive gold, silver and broader commodities basket sharply higher

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 clawed back early losses to close near best levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks higher and closed near best levels

• S&P 500, Dow and Russell 2000 logged fresh all-time highs

• Nasdaq less than 1.0% from its 29-Oct-25 record close

• "Sell America" sentiment weighs on markets as Trump ramps attacks on Fed independence (BBG)

• Take a cautious approach to US equities as Fed independence drives renewed volatility, says JPMorgan (BBG)

• Alphabet crosses US$4tn market cap as bullish momentum grows around company's AI focus (RT)

• Gold at all-time highs as Fed independence fears spike (CNBC)

• Asia tech stocks rally on AI demand and attractive valuations, strategists see further upside (BBG)

STOCKS

• Apple picks Google's Gemini to run AI-powered Siri coming this year (CNBC)

• Apple tops global smartphone market in 2025, with 20% market share and strong iPhone 17 sales (RT)

• Nvidia, Eli Lilly announce $1bn investment in AI drug discovery lab (YF)

• Meta launches new "Meta Compute" initiative to build AI infrastructure (AX)

• Novo Nordisk CEO says there are as many as 1.5 million US users of compounded GLP-1 drugs (YF)

• Abercrombie & Fitch, American Eagle, Urban Outfitters holiday sales all disappoint (BBG)

• Trump demands credit-card rates capped at 10% for one year, sets 20-Jan deadline (BBG)

• Trump threatens to block ExxonMobil from Venezuela as CEO's skepticism about investing there (FT)

• Investment banks on track for best investment-banking year since pandemic as fee revenue soars (FT)

TARIFFS

• G7 ministers to meet in US to coordinate rare-earths supply diversification away from China (BBG)

• US nearing trade deal with Taiwan which would cut US tariffs on Taiwanese goods to 15%, secure major new investments from TSMC (NYT)

• Japan sends mining ship to survey rare-earth-rich mud in a bid to reduce China reliance (RT)

• EU and China agree EV import deal (SCMP)

• Australia to prioritise antimony, gallium, rare earths in $1.2bn reserve to diversify supply chains (RT)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Federal prosecutors investigate Powell over testimony to Congress on HQ revamp (NYT)

GEOPOLITICS

• Mexico's Sheinbaum says US military intervention ruled out after talks with Trump (Reuters)

• Cuba's president says no current talks with the US following Trump's threats (ABC)

• Trump weighs options amid escalating Iran protests, says Iran wants to meet (AX)

• Trump to meet Danish officials about Greenland on Thursday (CBS)

ECONOMY

• Australia household spending up 1.0% month-on-month in November, up 6.3% year-on-year amid solid spending across both goods and services (ABS)

ASX TODAY

• ASX 200 set to open higher, path of least resistance remains higher off the back of a broadening rally, higher commodity prices and easing bond yields

• Pretty quiet on the announcement front, a few exploration/project related updates from SS1, BM1, NMG and WC8 this morning

• Fletcher Building says trading conditions remain competitive, ongoing margin pressure continues across many business units, meaningful recovery in volumes will not appear until CY27 (FBU)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Commodities/miners: Another very strong overnight session for commodities, copper (+2.0%) back above US$6/lb, coking coal futures (+2.3%), aluminium (+1.4%) at the highest since Apr-22, gold briefly crossed US$4,600, silver (+6.2%) to a record US$85/oz, Chinese lithium carbonate futures (+9.0%) opened at limit up on Monday and tin (+5.6%) above US$48,000. These price moves drove broad gains for miners, with most of our miner-related overnight ETFs up 2-4% overnight.

BROKER MOVES

• Boss Energy initiated Sell with $1.20 target (GS)

• Elevra Lithium downgraded to Neutral from Outperform; target up to $8.50 from $7.00 (GS)

• IGO downgraded to Neutral from Outperform; target up to $9 from $7.50 (GS)

• Whitehaven Coal downgraded to Sell from Neutral; target up to $6.10 from $5.60 (GS)

• Suncorp upgraded to Buy from Neutral; target remains $20 (GS)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Tue 13 Jan: Sandon Capital (SNC) – $0.005

• Wed 14 Jan: Tower (TWR) – $0.144

• Thu 15 Jan: None

• Fri 16 Jan: None

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: None

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 10:30 am: Westpac Consumer Confidence (JAN) 

• 12:30 am: US Inflation (Dec)