Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, Dow hits all-time high as Nasdaq lags + TPG and Downer results

Overnight markets experienced volatility, with Nvidia's 6.3% drop countering broader market gains. However, macroeconomic indicators were positive, showing lower-than-expected inflation in Spain and Germany, alongside a stronger-than-anticipated US Q2 GDP. Today's the last day of August reporting season – the key reporters include Ramsay Health Care, TPG Telecom, Downer and Dicker Data.

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 gives back early gains to close at worst levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks finished mixed but well-off session highs

• Nvidia (-6.3%) sold off in the last hour of trade, dragging the Nasdaq and S&P 500 lower

• Equal-weight S&P 500 outperformed the official index by 37 bps

• Energy was the best performing sector after Libya’s oil production more than halved due to a standoff between rival political factions 

• Mixed takeaways from latest consumer-related results, with Best Buy noting stabilisation of consumer trends, positive credit and spending trends from Affirm but lower-end consumer weakness from Dollar General

• Libya oil crisis worsens as loading halted at five export terminals (BBG)

STOCKS

• Nvidia revenue guidance falls short of loftiest forecasts, Blackwell delay due to issues with production yield (BBG)

• Affirm soars 33% as BNPL lender aims to turn profit ahead of market targets (RT)

• Best Buy lifts annual profit forecast as cost controls pay off (RT)

• CrowdStrike lowers FY revenue guidance amid fallout from global IT outage (RT)

• Shell set to cut 20% of workforce in oil and gas units to boost profitability (BBG)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Atlanta Fed's Bostic says his timeline for rate cuts has accelerated but looking for additional data to support September rate cut (BBG)

POLITICS & GEOPOLITICS

• UN says Iran's nuclear-fuel levels rose over last three months, potentially worsening tension with Israel and US (BBG)

• Sullivan meets Xi in Beijing as US and China seek stability ahead of election (BBG)

ECONOMY

• US Q2 GDP up 3.0% quarter-on-quarter, largely driven by increases in consumer spending, private inventory investment and non-residential fixed investment (RT)

• Germany inflation falls to 2.0% in August, aiding ECB rate cut view (RT)

• Spain inflation falls to 2.2% vs. 2.4% consensus, the lowest in a year (RT)

• Fitch affirms US credit rating at AA+ with stable outlook (RT)

• Australian business investment drops 2.2% in Q2, defying forecasts (RT)

• New Zealand business confidence highest in a decade on rate cuts (BBG)

ASX TODAY

• ASX 200 is set to open higher after a solid overnight lead (ex-tech) and break a three-day losing streak. Sectors set to open higher include Energy (Libya production hit), Financials (second best performing S&P 500 sector) as well as Materials (specifically gold miners and lithium)

• Gold Fields running the ruler over Magnetic Resources (The Aus)

• The Star Entertainment Group to announce a $1.4bn impairment across its entire portfolio of properties (AFR)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

Woo! Last day of reporting season. Here are a few consensus/forecast numbers of interest:

• Ramsay Healthcare: Macquarie (30-Jul) forecasts FY24 revenue of $16.6bn, EBITDA of $2.14bn and NPAT of $309m as well as a full-year dividend of 88 cps.

• Downer: Consensus looking for FY24 revenue of $11.4bn, underlying EBITA of $373.7m and NPATA of $203.5m.

• Dicker Data: Citi (20-May) expects FY24 sales of $3.3bn, EBITDA of $155m, a core NPAT of $82m and total dividend of 46 cps.

• Austal: Macquarie (21-Jun) forecasts FY24 revenue of $1.69bn, EBITDA of $122.4m, adjusted earnings of $28.3, EPS of 7.8 cents and total dividend of 3 cps.

BROKER MOVES

• City Chic Collective upgraded to Speculative Buy from Neutral; target up to $0.25 from $0.16 (Citi)

• Fisher & Paykel downgraded to Neutral from Buy; target to NZ$36 from NZ$32.8 (UBS)

• IDP Education upgraded to Neutral; target up to $16 from $13.25 (BofA)

• IDP Education upgraded to Add from Hold; target up to $18.20 from $17.40 (MORG)

• IGO upgraded to Outperform from Neutral; target up to $6.10 from $5.60 (MQG)

• Lynas downgraded to Accumulate from Buy; target cut to $7.40 from $8 (OM)

• MinRes downgraded to Hold from Outperform; target cut to $41.50 from %60 (CLSA)

• Sandfire upgraded to Buy from Neutral; target up to $10.70 from $9.50 (BofA)

• Wesfarmers downgraded to Sell from Neutral; target $66 (UBS)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Fri 30 Aug: Orora (ORA) – $0.05, Hitech Group (HIT) – $0.05, Ampol (ALD) – $0.60, Carlton Investments (CIN) – $0.63, Big River (BRI) – $0.02, Infomedia (IFM) – $0.02, Integral Diagnostics (IDX) – $0.033, Johns Lyng Group (JLG) – $0.047, Embark Education (EVO) – $0.015 

• Mon 2 Sep: Pinnacle Investment Management (PNI) – $0.264, Integrated Research (IRI) – $0.02, Prime Financial Group (PFG) – $0.009, EQT (EQT) – $0.53, GR Engineering Services (GNG) – $0.10, Arn Media (A1N) – $0.012,  Tabcorp (TAH) – $0.003, COG Financial Services (COG) – $0.044, Bendigo Bank (BEN) – $0.33

• Tue 3 Sep: Endeavour Group (EDV) – $0.075, Stanmore Resources (SMR) – $0.065, Solvar (SVR) – $0.05, Peter Warren Automotive (PWR) – $0.06, Lynch Group (LGL) – $0.08, Codan (CDA) – $0.12, Iluka Resources (ILU) – $0.04, Northern Star (NST) – $0.25, Coles (COL) – $0.32, Lynch Group (LGL) – $0.08, Steadfast (SDF) – $0.103, Woolworths (WOW) – $0.97, Karoon Energy (KAR) – $0.045

• Wed 4 Sep: Pacific Current Group (PAC) – $0.23, Praemium (PPS) – $0.01, Shaver Shop (SSG) – $0.055, Newmont (NEM) – $0.265, Pro Medicus (PME) – $0.22, Seek (SEK) – $0.16, Lifestyle Communities (LIC), Helia Group (HLI) – $0.15, Clearview Wealth (CVW) – $0.017, Medibank (MPL) – $0.09, Whitehaven Coal (WHC) – $0.13, Sonic Healthcare (SHL) – $0.63, Universal Store (UNI) – $0.19, Objective Corp (OCL) – $0.08, Servcorp (SRV) – $0.13

• Thu 5 Sep: Reliance Worldwide (RWC) – $0.038, Ironbark Capital (IBC) – $0.013, Laserbond (LBL) – $0.008, Nib Holdings (NHF) – $0.14, Veem (VEE) – $0.008, Beacon Lighting (BLX) – $0.038, Monash IVF (MVF) – $0.025, SDI (SDI) – $0.019, Woodside (WDS) – $1.018, GTN (GTN) – $0.017, Helloworld (HLO) – $0.06, Origin Energy (ORG) – $0.275, Schaffer Corp (SFC) – $0.45, Sky Network (SKT) – $0.109, Amcor (AMC) – $0.19

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Abacus Group (ABG), Carindale Property (CDP), Stockland (SGP), Charter Hall (CHC), Growthpoint (GOZ), GPT Group (GPT), Charter Hall Retail REIT (CQR), Scentre Group (SCG), GDI Property (GDI), Region Group (RGN), Liberty Financial (LFG), Abacus Storage King (ASK)

• Listing: None  

• Earnings: Australian Finance Group (AFG), APM Human Services (APM), Appen (APX), Austal (ASB), Count (CUP), Dicker Data (DDR), Downer (DOW), IPD (IPG), Michael Hill (MHJ), Ramsay Healthcare (RHC), The Star (SGR), TPG Telecom (TPG)

• AGMs: Collins Food (CKF)

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 11:30 am: Australia Retail Sales (Jul)

• 4:45 pm: France Inflation (Aug)

• 7:00 pm: Eurozone Inflation (Aug)

• 10:00 pm: India GDP Growth (Q2)

• 10:30 pm: Canada GDP Growth (Q2)

• 10:30 pm: US Core PCE Price Index (Jul)