Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise as S&P 500 climbs on SpaceX debut and US-Iran announce peace deal

In a nutshell:

• US benchmarks finished higher last Friday, with strong breadth as US-Iran peace deal optimism lifted sentiment

• SpaceX delivered the largest IPO in history, closing up 19% on debut and making Elon Musk the world's first trillionaire

• Brent fell 2.6% overnight and down a further 2.8% this morning to US$84.28

Let's dive in.

• Major US benchmarks closed higher and near session highs as Iran peace hopes and SpaceX's debut buoyed risk appetite

• Strong breadth with all sectors (except Healthcare) higher, Equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.91%) outperformed the cap-weighted benchmark by 41 bps

• SpaceX's record listing reopens the mega-IPO window, with former Nasdaq chief Robert Greifeld predicting OpenAI and Anthropic could follow with public debuts this year (YF)

• Chip and AI names were mixed, with pressure on ASML, Super Micro and Marvell, while Schwab strategists noted nearly half of 2026 US earnings growth is concentrated in tech (SCFR)

• Big stock swings signal choppy markets, driven by AI jitters and major IPOs influencing index movements (WSJ)

• Global banks limit hedge funds' leveraged bets on SK Hynix and Samsung amid concerns after rally and recent volatility(BBG)

• US bank stocks hit record high on Iran deal momentum, upcoming IPOs (BBG)

• US and Iran announce peal deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz (BBG)

• Goldman Sachs lowers 2027 Brent forecast to US$80, warns of sharp swings on Hormuz scenarios (RT)

• SpaceX closed up 19% at $160.95 on its Nasdaq debut, after pricing at $135 and raising about $75bn, briefly topping a $2.25tn market cap intraday (CNBC)

• Adobe dipped 6.7% despite beating fiscal Q2 estimates and raising full-year guidance, after saying CFO Dan Durn will depart on June 15 (BBG)

• Lennar tumbled 4.9% after Q2 FY26 net earnings of $305m, or $1.24 a share, beat on EPS but revenue fell 5.2% year-on-year and new orders dropped 4% (RT)

• AMD rallied 4.7% after Citigroup upgraded the stock to buy from neutral, arguing GPU upside is not fully priced into shares (RT)

• Anthropic plans to lease and manage data centre, seeking financial backing from Alphabet for lease payments (TI)

• Nvidia informs Chinese clients that its new Vera AI data centre processors may be available in August for orders (RT)

• Court allows Trump administration to enforce 10% global tariff under S.122 Trade Act, while appeal plays out (BBG)

• Canada delays opening new bridge to the US amid ongoing bilateral trade tensions (WSJ)

• US Commerce Secretary Lutnick says some of Japan's $550bn investment commitment will be used for nuclear power plants (NK)

• Fed to maintain Treasury bill purchases of ~$10bn this quarter ahead of potential liquidity drain in coming months (BBG)

• BOJ expected to hike rates this week and maintain hawkish bias (RT)

• ECB's Nagel signals readiness for July rate hike if Iran war shock persists (BBG)

• ECB's Dolenc calls June rate hike 'just enough for now' as officials weigh July move (BBG)

• BOK Governor Shin flags rate hikes to ease inflation pressures (RT)

• China's credit growth topped expectations in May, rebounding after April's contraction (BBG)

• ASX admits misleading conduct relating to CHESS replacement (ASX)

• Exxon Mobil said to be evaluating potential acquisition targets, including Woodside Energy, company has been holding early-stage discussions (BBG)

• Southern Cross Electrical Engineering seeking to raise $165m, sources say proceeds will support recent major contract win (AFR)

• Sigma Healthcare to give up on Boots acquisition, sources say holders were concerned about a potentially massive cap raise to fund the deal (AFR)

• SPC Global holder Regal Partners discloses 14.4% stake (SPG)

• Resource bounce: Commodity prices traded broadly higher last Friday, with our overnight ETF watchlist noting solid gains (Copper Miners +3.3%, Silver Miners +3.2%, Gold Miners +2.9%, Rare Earths/Strategic Metals +2.7%, Uranium +1.5%). ASX 200 Materials Index rallied 4.0% last Friday, but still down 4.6% over the last seven sessions. Commodity markets trading broadly higher this morning, with gold up 1.5% and copper up 0.5%.

• Consumer/yield sensitive rotation: Some pretty extraordinary gains for rather unloved sectors like Staples (+8.8%), Discretionary (+8.4%), Healthcare (+7.0%) and Real Estate (+5.1%) last week. It looks like a defensive pivot, but the strength in Discretionary makes you wonder whether the worst of it (rate hikes, inflation, weak consumer sentiment) is now behind us.

Broker data is currently pending. Check out tonight's Evening Wrap for a full list of today's analyst updates.

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Mon 15 Jun: Transmetro (TCO) – $0.06, Plato Income Maximiser (PL8) – $0.006, Spheria Emerging Companies (SEC) – $0.011

• Tue 16 Jun: None

• Wed 17 Jun: Select Harvests (SHV) – $0.035, WAM Active (WAA) – $0.01, WAM Income Maximiser (WMX) – $0.006

• Thu 18 Jun: AFT Pharmaceuticals (AFP) – $0.016

• Fri 19 Jun: None

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: Embark Early Education (EVO)

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

No major economic announcements.