Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rebound, US markets finish mixed after inflation stays firm, GrainCorp and Xero to report earnings

ASX 200 futures are trading 26 points or 0.3% lower to 8,296, as of 8:15am AEDT.

With US core inflation coming in at just under +0.3% for the month of October, there is now an 80%+ chance of a final rate cut in 2024 from the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, it's a big day for companies with the likes of Cettire, Goodman Group, Guzman Y Gomez, and Seven Group all holding AGMs today. On the earnings front, GrainCorp and Xero will report their numbers this morning. Meanwhile, Kiwi infrastructure firm Infratil and Aussie agricultural giant Nufarm have already reported their numbers.

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

After peaking at about halfway through the trading day, the S&P 500 finished little changed (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended Wednesday’s session essentially unchanged

• Post-election momentum continued to fade, although Bitcoin topped US$93,000 per unit last night

• While the US 10-Year yield only ticked up 2 basis points last night, the US Dollar Index hit its highest level since mid-April.

• Spot gold retreated 0.6% to US$2,583 per ounce, Brent crude rose 0.6% to US$72.29 per barrel

• SGX iron ore futures have topped US$100 per tonne once again

STOCKS

• Supreme Court hears Nvidia's arguments as it seeks to avoid a securities-fraud lawsuit (Reuters)

• BNPL firm Klarna files for IPO; analysts recently valued company at around $15B (CNBC)

• Amazon spending big on custom AI chip production to cut into Nvidia's market lead (FT)

• Boeing starts issuing layoff notices as part of plan to cut 17,000 workers (Reuters)

• Southwest Air is expecting Boeing strike to cut into 2025 deliveries (Bloomberg)

• Judge rules Meta will face antitrust trial over Instagram, WhatsApp acquisitions (Reuters); Meta to introduce ads on Threads in early 2025 (Reuters)

POLITICS & GEOPOLITICS

• Trump meets Biden at the White House to discuss transition (Reuters)

• Trump gives endorsement for House Speaker Mike Johnson to retain his seat (Bloomberg), Republicans officially secure House majority, handing Trump GOP trifecta of control (Bloomberg)

• Trump to nominate Florida representative Matt Gaetz to Attorney General, fellow Floridian Marco Rubio to become Secretary of State and former Democratic Presidential Candidate Tulsi Gabbard as director of national intelligence (AFR)

• Kyiv ‘cautiously optimistic’ after discussing deep strikes in Russia with US (Reuters)

• A diminished Biden heads to APEC summit in Peru, overshadowed by China’s Xi (AP)

ECONOMY

• Markets pricing in 80% chance of 25bp Fed rate cut in December (Bloomberg)

• US budget deficit jumped nearly four-fold to $257 billion in October (Reuters)

ASX TODAY

• Infratil half-year earnings (EBITDA) rise 25% to $506 million, but records a net loss of $212.2 million. The company declared an interim dividend of 7.25 cents per share

• Orica has recorded a full-year statutory net profit of $525 million and an unfranked final dividend of 28 cents per share

• Nufarm reports full year revenues of $3.35 billion and underlying EBITDA of $313 million - both were a BEAT on analyst expectations

• SEC filings show Gina Rinehart's Hancock Prospecting has increased her holding in Nevada-based rare earths miner MP Materials from 5.3% to 8.5%

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Cettire, Computershare, Flight Centre, Goodman Group, Guzman y Gomez, Inghams, Seven Group and Superloop will all host annual general meetings.

• Graincorp and Xero are set to release earnings.

BROKER MOVES

• Sims downgraded to neutral from buy at Citi

• Mader Group downgraded to hold from buy at Bell Potter

• Jumbo Interactive initiated buy at Bell Potter

• QBE Insurance Group upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Thu 14 Nov: Dicker Data (DDR) – 1.21%, Plato Income Maximiser (PL8) – 0.44%

• Fri 15 Nov: None

• Mon 18 Nov: Rand Mining (RND) – 4.76%, Tamawood (TWD) – 3.06%, Tribune Resources (TBR) – 4.10%, Wam Leaders (WLE) – 3.38%

• Tue 19 Nov: None

• Wed 20 Nov: Amcor (AMC) – 1.22%, Wam Global (WGB) – 2.61%

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 10am: RBA Governor Michele Bullock speaks

• 11:30am: Australian jobs data (Oct)

• 9pm: Eurozone GDP and jobs data

• Overnight: US PPI data

Please note that tomorrow's Morning Wrap will be delayed as Hans is travelling to Melbourne.