Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rally, S&P 500 and Nasdaq score another record close, Uranium stock rally

ASX 200 futures are trading 73 points higher, up 0.93% as of 8:30 am AEST.

The S&P 500 closed above 5,600 for the first time on broad-based gains, Apple says new AI features could bump iPhone shipments up by more than 10% this year, uranium stocks soar after unexpected new mineral tax in Kazakhstan and the ASX 200 is set to have a crack at all-time highs.

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 rips higher to close at fresh all-time highs (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks ripped higher and finished near best levels

• S&P 500 and Nasdaq logged a seventh straight session of gains and a sixth consecutive record close

• All US sectors finished higher but big tech led to the upside, notably Nvidia (+2.6%), Apple (+1.8%) and Microsoft (+1.4%)

• Upbeat AI-related newsflow boosted tech stocks, including supercharged TSMC earnings, AMD announced a deal to acquire Europe’s largest AI lab for US$665m cash and an improved outlook for Apple’s iPhone shipments

• Traders accumulating bullish positions in Treasuries ahead of Powell, US CPI (Bloomberg)

• Near term Fed rate cuts bolstering case for further market bullishness (Reuters)

• JPMorgan says Thursday's CPI report could add volatility to subdued market (Bloomberg)

• China bond traders ready for PBOC to push back on record low yields (Bloomberg)

STOCKS

• Apple logs 21% jump in Q2 PC shipments, largest among global PC makers (Bloomberg)

• Apple says AI features could drive a ~10% increase in iPhone sales this year (Bloomberg)

• Google reportedly abandoning efforts to acquire HubSpot (Bloomberg)

• Tesla raised Model 3 price in Europe due to EU's China-targeted tariffs (Reuters)

• TSMC Q2 sales grew at fastest pace since 2022 amid AI infrastructure boom (Bloomberg)

• Volkswagen issues profit warning triggered in part by the possible closure of an Audi plant (Reuters)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Powell stresses balance-sheet drawdown has "quite a ways to go" (Reuters)

• Powell warns on two-sided risks, including "considerable" cooling of labor market (FT)

• RBNZ keeps rates on hold, opens door to possible cuts (Reuters)

POLITICS & GEOPOLITICS

• Top Democrats signal unwillingness to abandon Biden amid divisions within party (Axios)

• Democrats try to change subject from Biden's to Trump's policy goals (Bloomberg)

• Biden says Ukraine will stop Putin in forceful NATO speech (Reuters)

• China starts retaliatory investigation into EU trade barriers after Brussels imposed provisional tariffs on China EVs (Bloomberg)

• France's Macron faces divisions in bloc over election (FT)

ECONOMY

• China CPI inflation unexpectedly weakens as deflation risks persist (Reuters)

ASX TODAY

• ASX 200 set to have a crack at all-time highs after a strong lead from Wall Street and higher overnight commodity prices

• Calidus Resources transitioning Warrawoona operations into care and maintenance, dual-track recapitalisation and sale process has commenced (CAI)

• Macmahon in discussions with receivers and managers about the ongoing services required at Warrawoona and the impact on its operations (MAH)

• MMA Offshore to be suspended from the ASX, effective close of trading 11-Jul after Federal Court approved Cyan’s proposed takeover (MRM)

• Platinum Asset Management reports 30-Jun funds under management of $12.97bn vs. $13.55bn at 31-May (PTM)

 WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Uranium stocks are set to soar after a surprise hike in extraction taxes in Kazakhstan, the world's largest uranium producing country. The new Mineral Extraction Tax (MET) will increase tax rates to 9% from 6% in 2025. From 2026, a new two-tier MET will be rolled out based on production out and uranium prices. This provides less incentive for local producers, like Kazatomprom to increase production. The Global X Uranium ETF rallied 4.4% on the news to a one-month high. This could draw a strong response for local names like Paladin Energy, Boss Energy and Deep Yellow. It is worth noting that all three names are heavily shorted, with short interest of 4.22%, 6.36% and 5.69% respectively

• Gold stocks to tick higher amid an uptick in prices overnight. The VanEck Gold Miners ETF finished 2.6% higher overnight and within an arms reach of a two-year high. Newmont shares rallied strongly overnight (+3.5%) after CIBC upgraded the stock to Outperform from Neutral with a US$61 target price (up from US$46). The analysts cited a bullish outlook for gold prices, more investor interest in gold and Newmont's position as the S&P 500's only listed gold producer.

BROKER MOVES

• Aristocrat Leisure initiated Neutral with $55.30 target (Goldman Sachs)

• Core Lithium upgraded to Neutral from Sell (Goldman Sachs)

• Light & Wonder initiated Buy with $190 target (Goldman Sachs)

• Lottery Corp initiated Neutral with $5.60 target (Goldman Sachs)

• Paladin Energy initiated with $10.80 target (Argonaut) 

• Webjet upgraded to Overweight from Neutral; target up to $11 from $8.80 (JPMorgan)

Companies trading ex-dividend: 

• Thu 11 July: Transmetro Corp (TCO) – $0.05, Westgold Resources (WGX) – $0.013

• Fri 12 July: None

• Mon 15 July: None

• Tue 16 July: Metcash (MTS) – $0.085 

• Wed 17 July: Turners Automotive (TRA) – $0.069

• Thu 18 July: None

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Duxton Farmers (DBF) – $0.10 

• Listing: None

• Earnings: None

• AGMs: Synlait Milk (SM1) at 2:00 pm

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 4:00 pm: UK GDP (May)

• 10:30 pm: US Inflation Rate (Jun)