Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to open near all-time highs, Nasdaq logs best week since November 2023

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted its strongest week of 2024, the 25 vs. 50 bp cut debate rages on, Oracle flags a massively upbeat earnings outlook, gold prices hit another fresh all-time high, Nine and Tabcorp are considering divesting business segments and the ASX 200 is set to open near all-time highs.

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 lower, finished off worst levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks higher, closed off best levels

• Nasdaq posted its best week since Nov-23, S&P 500 within 1% of all-time highs

• Today’s big story – The likelihood of a 25 vs. 50 bp cut is now 50:50. While slightly hotter-than-expected inflation data seems to underpin the case for 25 bps, a few reports have suggested the door for more aggressive easing has not closed

• AI-related stocks rebound after last week’s selloff that marked the biggest S&P decline in 18 months and Nasdaq in 23 months

• US weekly recap: Nasdaq +5.9%, Russell 2000 +4.3%, S&P 500 +4.0%, Dow +2.6%

• Rotation away from big tech driven by improving earnings growth for S&P 493, defensive stance over recession fears (BBG)

• US consumer staples outperform vs broader market as investors hunt for defensive stocks (FT)

• BofA's Hartnett says US stocks likely to trade sideways until clarity on jobs (BBG)

• Deutsche Bank raises S&P 500 year-end target, citing rising stock buybacks, strong earnings and robust inflows (RT)

• China bond yields skid to record low as growth risks overshadow PBOC intervention (BBG)

STOCKS

• Alcoa to receive US$1.1bn in Saudi Arabian Mining Co in sale of 25% stake in two metals plants in Saudi Arabia (Bloomberg)

• Oracle flags revenue of ~US$104bn in FY29 (vs. ~$88bn ests) amid growth in cloud infrastructure, nudges up FY26 sales outlook to $66B (BBG)

• Adobe Q4 sales guidance underwhelms, adding to concerns about of pace AI monetisation (BBG)

• Boeing workers vote to strike after rejecting contract offer (BBG)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Big week ahead for central bank decisions with Fed, BoE, PBOC, BoJ meetings (FT)

• BoC Governor Macklem opens door for 50 bp cuts given concerns over labour market, falling crude oil prices (FT)

• Fed policymakers continue to weigh case for 25 vs 50bp cut (FT)

• Former NY Fed President Dudley sees strong case for 50 bp Fed rate cut (BBG)

• ECB rate cut bets pared as policymakers remain cautious on future easing (RT)

• RBI Governor Das signals no hurry to cut interest rates (BBG)

POLITIC

• VP Harris builds on lead over Trump on economic issues, particularly among those who watched Tuesday's debate (FT)

• Trump tariff plan has support of 56% of voters (RT)

• Trump promises to eliminate taxes on overtime pay (BBG)

ECONOMY

• Chinese factory output, consumption, investment all slowed more than expected, jobless rate hits six-month high (FT

• Chinese home prices fell at faster pace in August (BB)

ASX TODAY

• Nine considering taking Domain Australia private (The Aus)

• Tabcorp could consider sale of gaming services operation (The Aus)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Gold: Gold hit a fresh all-time high overnight and briefly traded at US$2,580 an ounce. This drew a strong response for the VanEck Gold Miners ETF, up 2.2% overnight. Local gold miners should continue to benefit from strong bullion prices on Monday.

BROKER MOVES

• BWP upgraded to Equal-weight from Underweight; target up to $4.0 from $3.80 (MS)

• Champion Iron initiated Buy with $7.15 target (BP)

• HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT downgraded to Underweight from Equal-weight; target cut to $1.30 from $1.41 (MS)

• Perseus Mining initiated Buy with $3.00 target (UBS)

• Northern Star upgraded to Overweight from Neutral; target $16.80 from $14.50 (JPM)

• Region Group downgraded to Underweight from Overweight; target cut to $2.44 from $2.55 (MS)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Mon 16 Sep: Echelon Resources (ECH) – $0.013, Saunders International (SND) – $0.022, Credit Corp (CCP) – $0.23, QUBE Holdings (QUB) – $0.052

• Tue 17 Sep: Base Resources (BSE) – $0.065, Duratec (DUR) – $0.025, Wotso Property (WOT) – $0.01, Cochlear (COH) – $2.10, Maas Group (MGH) – $0.035

• Wed 18 Sep: Flight Centre (FLT) – $0.30, Adrad (AHL) – $).016, Sports Entertainment Group (SEG) – $0.02, Supply Network (SNL) – $0.33, Service Stream (SSM) – $0.025, Auckland International Airport (AIA) – $0.059  

• Thu 19 Sep: Mader (MAD) – $0.04, Auswide Bank (ABA) – $0.11, Embelton (EMB) – $0.20, Tourism Holdings (THL) – $0.046, Midway (MWY) – $0.161, South32 (S32) – $0.046, Motorcycle Holdings (MTO) – $0.07, IPD Group (IPG) – $0.062, Count (CUP) – $).022, Enero Group (EGG) – $0.02, NRW Holdings (NWH) – $0.09, Lycopodium (LYL) – $0.40

• Fri 20 Sep: Inghams (ING) – $0.08, Vita Life Sciences (VLS) – $0.035, Capitol Health (CAJ) – $0.004, Eureka Group (EGH) – $0.007, Blackwall (BWF) – $0.025 

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Computershare (CPU), Mitchell Services (MSV), Vicinity Centres (VCX), Johns Lyng Group (JLG), MyState (MYS)

• Listing: None  

• AGMs: Metcash (MTS)

Economic calendar (AEST):

No major economic announcements.