Market Wraps

Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to open flat, S&P 500 loses steam + Suncorp, Lynas results

Mon 26 Feb 24, 8:31am (AEST)

ASX 200 futures are trading 4 points higher, up 0.05% as of 8:30 am AEDT.

Major US benchmarks gave back early gains on Friday but still logged weekly gains of more than 1%, Nvidia dropped back to breakeven levels from a session high of 4.9%, Fed policymakers continue to push back against cutting rates too early, the ASX is rife with M&A speculation across tech, mining and banks plus more results set to be released from names including Lynas Rare Earths, TPG and Suncorp.

Let's dive in.

Overnight Summary

Mon 26 Feb 24, 8:22am (AEST)

Name Value % Chg
Major Indices
S&P 500 5,089 +0.03%
Dow Jones 39,132 +0.16%
NASDAQ Comp 15,997 -0.28%
Russell 2000 2,017 +0.14%
Country Indices
Canada 21,413 +0.45%
China 3,005 +0.55%
Germany 17,419 +0.28%
Hong Kong 16,726 -0.10%
India 73,143 -0.02%
Japan 39,099 +2.19%
United Kingdom 7,706 +0.28%
Name Value % Chg
Commodities (USD)
Gold 2,049.3999 +0.78%
Iron Ore 126.85 -0.35%
Copper 3.88 -0.40%
WTI Oil 76.49 -2.51%
Currency
AUD/USD 0.6563 +0.09%
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin (AUD) 78,869 +0.42%
Ethereum (AUD) 4,723 +3.70%
Miscellaneous
US 10 Yr T-bond 4.26 -1.55%
VIX 13.75 -5.43%

US Sectors

Mon 26 Feb 24, 8:22am (AEST)

SECTOR % CHG
Utilities +0.71%
Materials +0.58%
Industrials +0.50%
Health Care +0.44%
Financials +0.33%
Consumer Staples +0.30%
SECTOR % CHG
Real Estate +0.10%
Communication Services -0.21%
Information Technology -0.27%
Consumer Discretionary -0.34%
Energy -0.58%

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 intraday
S&P 500 fades from best levels, closes slightly higher (Source: TradingView)

ASX TODAY

  • Companies reporting today include Suncorp, TPG Telecom, Summerset Group, Michael Hill International, Lynas Rare Earths, Liberty Financial Group, Lindsay Australia and more

  • Megaport on M&A watchlists as Slattery heads for exit (AFR)

  • Charter Hall expected to pass on option to acquire remaining 50% of Paradice Investment Management (AFR)

  • Transurban drops out of bidding for Denver’s Northwest Parkway Toll (AFR)

  • Evolution Mining, Northern Star, Gold Road and Regis Resources tipped as ‘most likely’ buyers of Newmont’s Telfer mine stake (The Australian)

  • Speculation around Bendigo Bank acquisition of Judo Bank (The Australian)

  • Accent Group upgraded to Underperform from Sell at CLSA, target increased to $2.00 from $1.75  

  • Brambles downgraded to Underperform from Hold at Jefferies but target increased to $13.22 from $12.92

  • QUBE Holdings downgraded to Accumulate from Buy at Ord Minnett but target increased to $3.59 from $3.34

MARKETS

  • S&P 500 finished slightly higher, down from session highs of 0.47%

  • S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq all rallied more than 1% for the week

  • Nvidia opens 2.9% higher, rallies to a session high of 4.9% but fades to finish just above breakeven – Does this mark the beginning of a pullback

  • Over the past decade, whenever Nvidia gapped up at least 2% from open to close (while trading at a multi-year high), it dropped every time over the next few weeks, according to SentimenTrader

  • Nvidia is now worth more than the GDP of Russia, South Korea, Australia, Spain, Indonesia, Turkey, Netherlands and Saudi Arabia

  • Bullish focus points for the week – Nvidia beat a very high bar and raised guidance, Fedspeak remains supportive of an eventual pivot, M&A activity in the financial services space, solid earnings from economic bellwether names like Walmart and Toll, Goldman Sachs raising S&P 500 2024 price targets and China cutting 5-year LPR by 25 bps

  • Bearish focus points for the week – FOMC minutes flagged risk of premature easing, megacap concentration concerns, negative earnings/guidance reactions to many US large cap results, EV space continues to lag

  • Money market funds experienced another week of outflows amid easing Fed rate cut expectations (Bloomberg)

  • Strategists anticipate equities continuing their march higher but expect to see a correction over the next three months (Reuters)

  • Cool Stat – It's been 309 trading days since ChatGPT was released and the Nasdaq is up around 46%. In the 309 trading days after Netscape (the first web browser) was released in December 1994, the Nasdaq was up 45.9%. By day 700, the Nasdaq was up as much as 130%.

STOCKS

  • Nvidia market cap swells by record $277bn in a single day on results (Reuters)

  • Nvidia's earnings spark surge in demand for call options in other AI stocks (Bloomberg)

  • Reddit files for IPO, reveals narrowing losses for 2023 (Reuters)

  • Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway reports operating earnings of just under US$8.5bn in Q4, up 28% year-on-year on insurance segment tailwind (CNBC)

  • Berkshire Hathaway cash pile jumps to record US$167.6bn as Buffett says lack of meaningful deals means no chance of 'eye-popping performance' (Bloomberg)

  • EV startups Rivian and Lucid struggling to sell cars (MSN)

CENTRAL BANKS

  • Fed Governor Waller says there’s no urgency to ease given the strong economy, delaying rate cuts by a few months shouldn’t have a substantial impact on the economy (Bloomberg)

  • Goldman Sachs economists push back view on when Fed will begin cutting interest rates to June from May (Bloomberg)

  • PBOC shifting preference to surprise rate moves to revive confidence (Bloomberg)

  • ECB's Holzmann says does not see rate cuts coming before the Fed (Bloomberg)

  • RBI minutes show no signals from board of lower interest rates (Reuters)

GEOPOLITICS

  • US says won't extend China semiconductor curbs to legacy chips (Nikkei)

  • Israeli PM Netanyahu unveils postwar plan including complete security control of Gaza (FT)

  • US plans sanctions against Russia to target 500 people and entities following Navalny death (Bloomberg)

ECONOMY

  • German Ifo business climate survey edges up in February (Bloomberg)

  • GfK UK consumer confidence falls amid concern over persistent inflation (FT)

  • New Zealand retail sales fall sharply, fuels recession concerns (Bloomberg)

  • China home prices shrink again, though at a slightly narrower pace (Reuters)

  • China recovery bets ramp up on growing confidence policy officials can stem stock rout (Bloomberg)


Industry ETFs

Mon 26 Feb 24, 8:21am (AEST)

Name Value % Chg
Commodities
Gold Miners 26.66 +1.91%
Copper Miners 36.44 +1.25%
Silver 20.99 +0.82%
Steel 70.69 +0.73%
Lithium & Battery Tech 43.03 +0.63%
Strategic Metals 48.34 +0.10%
Uranium 26.98 -2.70%
Industrials
Construction 67.1 +1.45%
Aerospace & Defense 126.42 +0.35%
Agriculture 22.16 +0.32%
Global Jets 20.14 -0.79%
Healthcare
Cannabis 5.15 +0.78%
Biotechnology 138.19 +0.74%
Name Value % Chg
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin 24.15 -1.83%
Renewables
Solar 41.99 -1.55%
Hydrogen 5.26 -1.87%
CleanTech 8.72 -2.13%
Technology
E-commerce 22.24 +1.78%
Cybersecurity 29.62 +1.40%
FinTech 25.6 +0.87%
Cloud Computing 21.54 +0.42%
Sports Betting/Gaming 17.64 +0.11%
Robotics & AI 30.73 -0.10%
Video Games/eSports 61.51 -0.16%
Electric Vehicles 23.57 -0.59%
Semiconductor 636.47 -1.08%

Key Events

ASX corporate actions occurring today:

  • Trading ex-div: Domino’s Pizza (DMP) – $0.55, HMC Capital (HMC) – $0.06, Winton (WTN) – $0.005, Annsell (ANN) – $0.252, Humm Group (HUM) – $0.007, Infomedia (IFM) – $0.02, Contract Energy (CEN) – $0.128, McGrath (MEA) – $0.03, Aurizon (AZJ) – $0.097, Codan (CDA) – $0.105, Santos (STO – $0.268, Hansen Technologies (HSN) – $0.05

  • Dividends paid: Waypoint REIT (WPR) – $0.04

  • Listing: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

No major economic events. 

Written By

Kerry Sun

Content Strategist

Kerry holds a Bachelor of Commerce from Monash University. He is an avid swing trader, focused on technical set ups and breakouts. Outside of writing and trading, Kerry is a big UFC fan, loves poker and training Muay Thai. Connect via LinkedIn or email.

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