Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to fall, S&P 500 lower as Trump says Iran deal is 'over', Commodity prices tumble

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks finished mostly lower but off worst levels, with the S&P 500 (-0.28%) closing well above session lows of (-1.09%)

• Breadth was very weak, with the Equal-weight S&P 500 (-1.18%) lower and only two sectors (Energy and Tech) trading higher

• Nvidia (+3.6%) and Broadcom (+4.8%) carried the market on company-specific news

• Oil spiked and risk sentiment soured after Trump declared the US-Iran ceasefire over and American forces launched fresh strikes

• Minutes from the Fed's June meeting exposed a deep split over whether to raise or hold rates, keeping the prospect of a 2026 hike firmly alive

Let's dive in.

• Major US benchmarks finished mostly lower, but off worst levels, with the Nasdaq clawing back early losses to close up 0.2%

• Oil jumped after Trump declared the Iran ceasefire over, with Brent up ~4.7% to US$79.51 and now on a five-day win streak up 11.6% 

• Treasury yields edged higher as renewed strikes and higher oil revived energy-driven inflation fears, a move reinforced by hawkish signals in the Fed's June meeting minutes 

• AI hyperscalers Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon each fell around 1% on fresh worries about heavy spending on data-centre infrastructure

• Semis bounced on positive newsflow for Broadcom (+4.8%) and Nvidia (+3.6%), while Micron (+1.1%), AMD (+0.25%) and Applied Materials (+2.8%) also higher

• BofA cuts its 2026 gold price forecast 15% to $4,360 though still maintains bullish outlook (RT)

• Dollar continues to see boost from safe-haven tailwind as US-Iran tensions ramp (BBG)

• Asia's AI rotation accelerates as investors shift from chipmakers to cheaper tech plays; KOSPI slips into bear market (RT)

• Trump declared the US-Iran ceasefire over at the NATO summit in Ankara, calling further talks a waste of time and warning the US would probably strike Iran again (CNBC)

• US Central Command launched a fresh round of strikes on Iran on Wednesday to degrade its ability to threaten Hormuz shipping, after earlier hitting more than 80 targets and 60 IRGC boats (CNN)

• IGRC said it retaliated by striking 85 US military sites across Bahrain and Kuwait, both home to American bases (CNN)

• Trump threatened to reinstate a naval blockade of Iran and said US forces could take over the Kharg Island oil export hub (AJ)

• Six tankers crossed the Strait of Hormuz early Wednesday amid latest wave of US and Iranian attacks (BBG)

• Tens of millions of barrels of Iranian oil are stranded at sea after the US withdrew Iran's 60-day sales waiver (BBG)

• China lifts refined fuel export restrictions for remainder of July, resuming shipments after a four-month halt (BBG)

• Broadcom rose 4.8% after Apple unveiled an expanded five-year chip deal worth more than 30 billion US dollars through 2031, covering over 15 billion US-made chips (YF)

• Nvidia gained 3.6% on reports that Chinese firms plan to lift purchases of its H200 AI accelerators, helping chipmakers rebound and support the Nasdaq (YF)

• Exxon expects Q2 earnings could jump about US$5bn from prior quarter on higher oil prices and improved refining margins (RT)

• Global nuclear power capacity is expected to surge by 44% over the next decade (OP)

• Mercedes-Benz Q2 car sales fell 8% globally, with a 30% drop in China amid property-led luxury demand slump (RT)

• US Treasury revoked its waiver allowing sales of Iranian crude oil, tightening sanctions after Tehran's attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and adding to the surge in oil prices (CNBC)

• Trump says he wants no involvement with Spain, urging Bessent to "cut off all trade" (CNBC)

• US increasing rare earths exports to Japan and South Korea with domestic demand yet to materialise (FT)

• Minutes from the Fed's June meeting showed policymakers deeply split on rates, with Chair Kevin Warsh describing the debate as a family fight and the dot plot narrowly tilting toward one 2026 hike (CNBC)

• Minutes offered little forward guidance, with some participants ready to tighten if inflation stays elevated and others seeing room to ease, leaving policy firmly data-dependent (CNBC)

• RBNZ raises cash rate by 25 bps, further rate hikes will depend on data (BBG)

• IMF warned progress on inflation has stalled, forecasting oil prices to rise nearly 32% in 2026 and global consumer prices to climb 4.7%, up from 4.1% in 2025 (IMF)

• IMF downgrades 2026 forecast for global growth to 3%, with Mideast war pressures partly offset by AI capex (IMF)

• BHP Group faces strike threat at Port Hedland as a union coalition plans industrial action at the Bulk Export Terminal, with ~250 of 450 employees to stop work for 8 hours on 16-Jul. AFR notes a full closure could cost BHP over $100m a day in revenue (BHP)

• Block enters a $45m multistate settlement resolving findings it misled consumers on Cash App safety and failed to protect users from fraud. Reaffirms commitment to distribute $75-120m to consumers nationwide under a related CFPB settlement (XYZ)

• Fletcher Building upgrades FY26 continuing operations EBIT (ex-items) to NZ$400-403m (incl property sales) vs prior NZ$378-380m. Ex-property EBIT NZ$348-351m, up ~3.6% on the mid-June midpoint. Flags macro uncertainty may delay or cancel new commercial projects, weighing on H1 FY27 (FBU)

• Fair Work Ombudsman launches legal action against G8 Education alleging underpayments, seeking over $2m combined compensation for more than 1,400 workers (GEM)

• GenusPlus Group responds to a Bloomberg article implying involvement in today's national Telstra outage, stating it had no involvement with and did not contribute to the issue (GNP)

• More oil carnage: It's getting rough out there. The only encouraging thing from the overnight session was the Dow closing 1.0% lower, off session lows of -1.6%. But breadth was weak, with all sectors bar Tech and Energy lower and bond yields pushing 'uncomfortable' levels. As a reminder, during the 27-Feb to 23-Mar leg down, when the ASX 200 fell 9%, the best performers were almost all energy-related. Names like VEA, KAR, WDS, NHC, WHC, STO and ALD rose 20-35%. The worst large caps were copper, uranium and gold plays, with PNR, NST, KCN, RRL, VAU, DYL, CMM and EMR all down 35-45%. Not that we'll see something that extreme since energy has rebased higher and miners have already copped selling in recent weeks. But it's something to stay mindful of.

• Whitehaven upgraded to Neutral from Sell; target up to $8.10 from $6.00 (Goldman Sachs)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Thu 9 Jul: Venus Metals (VMC) – $0.047

• Fri 10 Jul: Dominion Income Trust (DN1) – $0.598

• Mon 13 Jul: Beacon Minerals (BCN) – $0.255, Collins Foods (CKF) – $0.15, Sandon Capital (SNC) – $0.005, Turners Automotive (TRA) – $0.074

• Tue 14 Jul: Metcash (MTS) – $0.095

• Wed 15 Jul: None

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: None

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: Aura Consolidated (AXQ), FDC Consolidated (FDC), Tetragon Energy (TET) 

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 11:30 am: China CPI