Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to fall, S&P 500 higher on Nvidia earnings, US court reinstates Trump tariffs

ASX 200 futures are down 17pts (-0.20%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks finished higher but off best levels

• A federal appeals court has temporarily blocked a ruling that threatened to cancel the bulk of Trump's tariff agenda

• Expect a relatively quiet Friday session, with limited newsflow and liquidity

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 higher but well off opening levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks higher but off best levels

• Lots of moving parts to tariffs – some optimism overnight after US Court of International Trade blocked Trump’s tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, though today the Federal Court temporarily reinstated the tariffs while the administration filed an appeal and outlined alternative legal means for tariffs

• Elsewhere – Nvidia earnings and guidance was a bright spot for tech and AI, while US GDP data was relatively downbeat 

• Bond traders are becoming more bearish on long-dated Treasuries as yields hover around 5%, with JPMorgan survey showing investors yields to remain elevated (BBG)

• Volatility in super-long JGBs spreading globally as markets turn closer eye on fiscal deficits (NK)

STOCKS

• Nvidia still expects US$45bn revenue in Q2 despite new export restrictions costing US$8bn in Chinese revenue (BBG)

• US CEO confidence recorded the largest quarterly decline in nearly 50 years of data (AX)

• Goldman Sachs President John Waldron says outlook for investment banking remains "quite good" (RT)

• Alfa Romeo considering postponing Stelvio SUV amid weak EV demand (USN)

• Business Insider to cut 21% of workforce, memo shows (AOL)

• Hyundai mulls sweeping US price hikes to blunt tariffs (BBG)

• Salesforce lifts annual sales outlook for its AI-focused tools division to $1bn, indicating consistent AI demand (BBG)

• HP cuts profit outlook as tariffs and PC market slowdown hit earnings (RT)

• Reliance, Aramco amongst bidders for BP's Castrol unit in potential $10bn deal (RT)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Powell meets Trump at White House, says monetary policy would be dictated solely by economic data and the outlook (FT)

• Fed Goolsbee says if tariffs are avoided, policy rate can come down (RT)

• Bank of Korea cuts rates by 25 bp to 2.5% and slashed its growth forecast for this year to 0.8%, Governor Rhee hinted a further cuts (BBG)

• Bank of Mexico slashes 2025 growth forecast to near zero amid US trade uncertainty (RT)

TARIFFS

• US trade court blocks Trump's Liberation Day tariffs (BBG)

• Federal court temporarily reinstates Trump’s tariffs on dozens of countries, including the 25% duties on Canada and Mexico (POL)

• US says it may take Trump's tariff case to the Supreme Court as soon as Friday (CNBC)

• German government drawing up plans that would implement 10% tax on tech giants such as Meta, Google (FT)

• Trump adds to US export restrictions to China, covering jet engines and semiconductor software (BBG)

ECONOMY

• US first quarter GDP shrinks 0.2% quarter-on-quarter vs. estimates for a 0.3% decline, annualised Q1 GDP sits at 2.1% vs. 2.0% consensus, consumer spending up 1.2%, the weakest decline in almost two years, exports subtracted ~5pp from GDP, the largest on record (BBG)

ASX TODAY

• A very quiet morning at the moment, with very few company updates – despite Trump's tariff news yesterday, liquidity was quite poor and plenty of stocks opened slightly higher and chopped sideways

• Meeka Metals targets first gold at Murchison project in mid-2025, process plant expansion and upgrade works nearing completion (MEK)

• NRW awarded contract by Rio Tinto valued at $157m and scheduled for completion in December 2026 (NWH)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Gold: Bullion prices have rallied around 1.4% since our market closed on Thursday. This could drive some positive flows for local gold miners.

BROKER MOVES

We're still waiting for the data to come through.

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Fri 30 May: MA Credit Income Trust (MA1) – $0.015, Metrics Master Income Trust (MXT) – $0.014, Metrics Income Opportunities Trust (MOT) – $0.017, Metrics Real Estate (MRE) – $0.009, Pengana International Equities (PIA) – $0.014

• Mon 2 Jun: Pengana Global Private Credit Trust (PCX) – $0.012

• Tue 3 Jun: None

• Wed 4 Jun: None

• Thu 5 Jun: None

• Fri 6 Jun: None

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Acrow (ACF), Autosports Group (ASG), Clime Investment Management (CIW) 

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 11:30 am: Australia Building Permits (Apr)

• 11:30 am: Australia Retail Sales (Apr)

• 8:30 pm: India GDP (Q1)

• 10:00 pm: Germany Inflation (May)

• 10:30 pm: Canada GDP (Q1)

• 10:30 pm: US Core PCE Price Index (Apr)