ASX 200 futures are trading 58 points lower, down -0.82% as of 8:30 am AEST.
Major US benchmarks pulled back after US inflation came in slightly hotter than expected, UK recession fears linger despite growth in August, Goldman Sachs says the CPI report should not affect the likelihood of a Fed pause in November and charts of the week!
Let's dive in.
Fri 13 Oct 23, 8:37am (AEST)
Name | Value | Chg % | |
---|---|---|---|
Major Indices | |||
S&P 500 | 4,350 | -0.62% | |
Dow Jones | 33,631 | -0.51% | |
NASDAQ Comp | 13,574 | -0.63% | |
Russell 2000 | 1,734 | -2.20% | |
Country Indices | |||
Canada | 19,500 | -0.83% | |
China | 3,108 | +0.94% | |
Germany | 15,425 | -0.23% | |
Hong Kong | 18,238 | +1.93% | |
India | 66,408 | -0.10% | |
Japan | 32,495 | +1.75% | |
United Kingdom | 7,645 | +0.32% |
Name | Value | Chg % | |
---|---|---|---|
Commodities (USD) | |||
Gold | 1,881.60 | -0.30% | |
Iron Ore | 118.31 | - | |
Copper | 3.586 | -0.73% | |
WTI Oil | 83.50 | +0.01% | |
Currency | |||
AUD/USD | 0.6314 | 0.00% | |
Cryptocurrency | |||
Bitcoin (AUD) | 42,356 | +0.12% | |
Ethereum (AUD) | 2,433 | -1.73% | |
Miscellaneous | |||
US 10 Yr T-bond | 4.712 | +2.55% | |
VIX | 17 | +3.73% |
Fri 13 Oct 23, 8:37am (AEST)
Sector | Chg % |
---|---|
Information Technology | +0.10% |
Energy | +0.09% |
Financials | -0.63% |
Health Care | -0.93% |
Industrials | -0.93% |
Consumer Discretionary | -0.95% |
Sector | Chg % |
---|---|
Communication Services | -1.11% |
Consumer Staples | -1.15% |
Real Estate | -1.31% |
Utilities | -1.50% |
Materials | -1.52% |
Major US benchmarks lower but closed off worst levels
S&P 500 and Nasdaq break four-day win streak
US 10-year yield rallied 14 bps after the hotter-than-expected headline CPI print
Russell 2000 headed for worst one-day decline since March (Barron’s)
European IPOs fall to lowest since 2008 amid challenging conditions (FT)
Fed's Collins says rates at or near peak, more tightening possible (Bloomberg)
ECB's Vujcic says its too early to say inflation is beaten (Bloomberg)
ECB's Kazaks says time to discuss ending bond buying early (Reuters)
BoE's Dhingra says rate cut could come sooner if growth falls sharply (BBC)
BOJ policy change hinges on next round of talks (Bloomberg)
Israel says no humanitarian break to Gaza siege unless hostages are freed (Reuters)
Biden intensifies diplomatic effort to stop Gaza conflict (FT)
Gazans endure 'catastrophic' conditions as territory hit by Israeli jets (FT)
Yellen says all options on the table for new Iran sanctions (FT)
US rule banning advanced AI chip sales to China under final review (Reuters)
China state fund raises stake in banks, to buy more in next 6 months (Bloomberg)
China property bondholders face major losses in debt restructuring (Reuters)
China bans new offshore brokerages accounts to stem capital outflows (Reuters)
China credit market stress eases after local defaults fall to lowest this year (Bloomberg)
Fri 13 Oct 23, 8:37am (AEST)
Description | Last | Chg % |
---|---|---|
Commodities | ||
Lithium & Battery Tech | 53.92 | +0.60% |
Strategic Metals | 63.93 | -0.16% |
Silver | 19.96 | -1.09% |
Uranium | 25.21 | -1.83% |
Gold Miners | 27.74 | -2.05% |
Copper Miners | 34.86 | -2.43% |
Steel | 63.149 | -2.53% |
Industrials | ||
Agriculture | 21.61 | +0.93% |
Aerospace & Defense | 108.81 | -1.23% |
Global Jets | 16.23 | -2.29% |
Construction | 49.39 | -3.84% |
Healthcare | ||
Biotechnology | 121.14 | -2.01% |
Cannabis | 5.86 | -3.46% |
Description | Last | Chg % |
---|---|---|
Cryptocurrency | ||
Bitcoin | 13.58 | -0.22% |
Renewables | ||
CleanTech | 10.44 | -2.43% |
Solar | 49 | -2.78% |
Hydrogen | 6.85 | -2.84% |
Technology | ||
Semiconductor | 490.03 | +0.26% |
Video Games/eSports | 52.545 | -0.77% |
Robotics & AI | 24.53 | -0.93% |
Electric Vehicles | 23.25 | -1.23% |
Cybersecurity | 24.21 | -1.55% |
FinTech | 20 | -1.72% |
E-commerce | 17.82 | -1.93% |
Cloud Computing | 18.68 | -1.99% |
Sports Betting/Gaming | 15.36 | -2.61% |
US CPI for September was a touch firmer than what the market was expecting.
Inflation rate MoM up 0.4% vs. 0.3% expected
Inflation rate YoY at 3.7% vs. 3.6% expected
Core inflation MoM up 0.3% in-line with expectations
Core inflation YoY down to 4.1% in-line with expectations
There were a few positive signs in the report but overall inflation remains too hot and even accelerating in some categories. Some of the main pain points for the September data include (below figures refer to month-on-month changes):
Gasoline prices up 2.1% reflecting higher oil prices
Electricity prices rose 1.3%
Shelter rose 0.6%, up from a 0.3% increase in August. Housing is still running hot but the consensus is that lagging rents data will meaningfully slow in the coming months
Goldman Sachs says "we do not expect today's CPI report to affect the outcome of the November FOMC meeting, for which we expect unchanged policy. Recent commentary by Fed officials has also sent a strong signal that the FOMC is likely to keep the funds rate unchanged."
On a more light hearted note, NY Times columnist Paul Krugman notes that CPI ex food, energy, shelter and used cars was below 2.0% in September. What a sensational result for those that don't eat, use energy, pay rent or need to get around.
This segment of the morning wrap brings you weekly technical commentary on the ASX 200 and some of the more interesting charts in the market. These are not meant as recommendations and for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future return. Always do your own research.
ASX 200 – Bond, James Bond
For anyone who thinks technical analysis is hocus pocus, take a look at the chart above. The index magically respected the 6900 support region, just as it did in January and March earlier in the year. Why did the bulls defend this region? Some would argue happenstance or coincidence. Well, Ian Fleming (creator of James Bond) said “Once is happenstance. twice is coincidence. Three times is enemy action”. That is, three times is on purpose. The bulls defended this level on purpose because they knew what was at stake if they didn’t. That’s the type of analysis you can wrap trades around and that’s what makes technical analysis useful.
Carsales.com (CAR) – Driving higher
I’ve covered CAR in the past and it is shaping up once again. After a pullback through late September/early October, the stock has rallied back up the $30 resistance level and is on the verge of breaking higher. A big increase in average volume recently supports the broader rally from $24, whilst right now the RSI is not overcooked. Keep an eye out for the break above $30 – it could be the catalyst for a sharp rally.
Megaport (MP1) – Mega Momentum
Over the past six months, there aren’t too many stocks with better momentum than MP1. The stock has rallied from $4 to $12 over the period. The price action has uptrend support and there is a neckline just above $12 that, if breached, could provide a ‘go-with’ move. Again, one for the watchlist, but keep an eye out for the break higher into clean air.
ASX corporate actions occurring today:
Trading ex-div: Harvey Norman (HVN) – $0.12
Dividends paid: Cash Converters (CCV) – $0.01, XRF Scientific (XRF) – $0.03, Hub24 (HUB) – $0.23, Seven Group (SVW) – $0.23, Fonterra (FSF) – $0.31, BSP Financial (BFL) – $0.15
Listing: None
Economic calendar (AEDT):
12:30 pm: China Inflation Rate
2:00 pm: China Balance of Trade
1:00 am: US Michigan Consumer Sentiment
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