Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to fall, S&P 500 and Nasdaq suffer worst day since September

ASX 200 futures are trading 52 points lower, down 0.64%, as of 8:30 am AEDT.

Major US benchmarks tumbled overnight following mixed results from heavyweights Microsoft and Meta Platforms, China's manufacturing PMI rises to 50.1 in October – tipping into expansion territory for the first time since April and Macquarie's half-year results are due this morning.

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 lower, finished off worst levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks gapped down and trended lower to finish near worst levels

• Nasdaq marked its worst session since early September after cautious earnings from Microsoft and Meta

• Today’s risk-off tone was largely driven by mixed Magnificent 7 earnings guidance and capex outlook, though nothing in the results really shift the favourable narrative surrounding AI growth

• US monthly recap – Nasdaq (-0.52%), S&P 500 (-0.99%), Dow Jones (-1.34%), Russell 2000 (-1.49%)

• US dollar's one week implied volatility surges to almost two-year high ahead of US election (BBG)

• US oil output hits monthly record high in August, EIA says (RT)

STOCKS

• Microsoft down 6pc as Q1 earnings beat unable to offset disappointing Azure growth guidance, forecast to slow to 31-32% in Q2 from 34% in the prior quarter (BBG)

• Meta shares fall 4pc despite beating Q3 operating income by almost 10% and guiding to slightly better-than-expected Q4, key concern was the higher FY24 capex guide from US$47-40bn to US$38-40bn (BBG)

• Ford to pause F-150 Lightning production amid weak EV demand (BBG)

• SMCI shares fall over 40% in past two trading sessions amid audit concerns (BBG)

• Estee Lauder pulls full-year guidance, shares fall most on record (BBG)

• Samsung Q3 profits slightly ahead of estimates but forecasts limited growth in Q4 (RT) 

• US airlines see stronger profits thanks to a sharp reduction in capacity that plagued the market this summer (RT)

• Stellantis Q3 sales slump 27% as it ships fewer cars from factories in most of its major markets (BBG)

• Shipping giant Maersk sees strong demand in Q3 driven by China, Southeast Asia exports (RT)

CENTRAL BANKS

• BOJ leaves policy unchanged, citing high uncertainties; Ueda says 'ample time' phrase no longer necessary (BBG)

POLITICS & GEOPOLITICS

• US draws up draft plan for 60-day ceasefire and Hezbollah withdrawal from southern Lebanon (FT)

• North Korea missile reaches record height in apparent ICBM test (FT )

ECONOMY

• China manufacturing PMI back to expansion for first time since April (RT)

• China's residential property sales rose in October, the first on-year increase of 2024 (BBG)

• South Korea industrial production unexpectedly shrinks amid decline in chip output (BBG)

• Taiwan's economy grew more than expected Q3, signalling high demand due to the AI boom (BBG)

• German retail sales the latest data point to surprise, potentially signalling stabilisation in consumers (RT)

• French inflation below ECB's 2% target for the second consecutive month (BBG)

• Australia retail sales growth softens, though retail volumes to make positive contribution to GDP (BBG)

ASX TODAY

• Amcor to sell interest in BCNA joint venture for $122m, sale not expected to impact FY25 outlook, proceeds used to reduce debt (AMC)

• Amcor reports Q1 EPS of 13 cents vs. 16 cents consensus, quarterly dividend of 12.75 cents per share vs 12.5 cents a year ago, reaffirms full-year guidance (AMC)

• ANZ Board actively working to collate short-list of candidate to succeed CEO Shayne Elliott and implement orderly transition (The Aus)

• Bowen Coking Coal is believed to have won over investors to tip in more funds, secures $70m (The Aus)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• A heavy session – We have a pretty weak lead in on ours hands and almost all of our overnight ETF finished lower, led by Semis (-3.8%), Gold (-2.8%) and Uranium (-1.8%)

• Macquarie results – Macquarie's first-half results are due this morning. The market is looking for cash NPAT of $1.72bn and cash EPS of $4.50. Citi analysts expect to see a dividend of $3.00 per share, representing a payout ratio of 71%.

BROKER MOVES

• Cochlear upgraded to Neutral from Underperform; target up to $289 from $283 (MQG)

• JB Hi-Fi upgraded to Hold from Underperform; target up to $70 from $61 (JEF)

• Mineral Resources upgraded to Outperform from Hold; target cut to $49 from $54 (CLSA)

• Mineral Resources upgraded to Hold from Underperform; target remains $40 (JEF)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Fri 1 Nov: Pengana Global Private Credit Trust (PCX) – 0.57%

• Mon 4 Nov: Brickworks (BKW) – 1.58%

• Tue 5 Nov: EZZ Life Science (EZZ) – 0.57%

• Wed 6 Nov: ResMed (RMD) – 0.15%

• Thu 7 Nov: None

• Fri 8 Nov: None

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: GenusPlus Group (GNP)

• Listing: None

• Earnings: Macquarie Group (MQG)

• AGMs: Austal (ASB), Cobram Estate Olives (CBO), Integral Diagnostics (IDX), Megaport (MP1), Spark New Zealand (SPK), Steadfast Group (SDF) 

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 10:30 am: Australia Home Loans (Sep) 

• 11:45 am: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Oct)

• 10:30 pm: US Non Farm Payrolls (Oct)