Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to fall, S&P 500 and Nasdaq flat + Copper and gold prices tick higher

Major US benchmarks managed to tick into positive territory in the last hour of trade, the US dollar continues to strengthen on Trump tariff concerns, gold prices hit a near-one month despite soaring yields, copper flags unusual strength and keep an eye out for Aussie retail sales data.

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 lower, finished off worst levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks finished slightly higher and at the midpoint between best and worst levels

• Equal-weight S&P 500 underperformed the official benchmark by almost 4% in December – the worst relative performance since 1957 – historically, the equal-weight has a strong tendency to outperform in the months ahead, according to SentimenTrader

• US dollar index ticked 0.3% higher and not far from a fresh two-year high on concerns that Trump was contemplating the use of emergency measures to allow for a new tariff program (RT)

• Stock markets tumbled the last time bond yields surged like this and a negative economic catalyst could trigger a correction (BBG)

• US Energy sector goes from S&P 500’s worst to first in 2025 amid soaring natural gas prices (BBG)

• Bitcoin slumps below US$100,000 as economic data pushes bond yields higher (BBG)

STOCKS

• Quantum computing stocks like Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum and IonQ nosedived 40-50% after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said the technology is likely decades away (CNBC)

• eBay shares rallied 10% after Meta announced plans to test its listing on Facebook Marketplace (CNBC)

• Getty Images plunged 18%, reversing a 24% rally in the previous session after announcing a US$3.7bn merger with Shutterstock (CNBC)

• Shell shares tanked after it trimmed its LNG production outlook for the fourth quarter, suggesting its oil and gas trading results are expected to be significantly lower than in the previous three months (RT)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Fed officials at December meeting see risks that price pressure may remain sticky and risks around Trump policies (RT) 

ECONOMY

• Australia headline inflation ticks up to 2.3% in Nov, up from 2.1% in Oct and above 2.2% consensus due to a jump in electricity prices (RT)

• Australia core inflation fell to 3.2% in Nov, down from 3.5% in the previous month and edging closer to the RBA’s 2-3% target (RT)

• US 30-year mortgage just shy of 7% weighs on home purchases (BBG)

ASX TODAY

• ASX 200 set to ease and snap a five-day winning streak

• ASX 200 defied weaker futures on Wednesday after cooler-than-expected core inflation data sent stocks higher

• ASX announcements remain relatively slow but we should see a notable pick up next week

• Arcadium Lithium is set to jump after it received clearance from the Committee on Foreign Investment in the US for its proposed acquisition by Rio Tinto (CNBC)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Gold – Bullion prices have returned to a near-one month high despite headwinds like a soaring US dollar and higher bond yields. There are a few catalysts that may be driving prices higher, including the resumption of Chinese central bank purchases (which paused for six months to October-24). You can find some interesting reading about China inflows here and global flows here.

• Copper – Copper prices rallied 1.7% overnight (up 6.0% in the last six sessions) to US$4.27/lb. This may reflect positive inflows from funds and operational struggles from Codelco.

• Retail sales – Aussie retail sales data at 10:30 am AEDT. The market is expecting sales to rise 1.0% month-on-month in November. The previous month saw sales surprise to the upside, up 0.6% in October. "“The stronger than usual October month saw some retailers enticing buyers to spend early with discounting, particularly on discretionary items," note the ABS report

BROKER MOVES

We're still smoothing out some gaps in our broker data. Thanks for hanging in there while we get everything sorted.

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Thu 9 Jan: Turners Automotive Group (TRA) – 1.32%

• Fri 10 Jan: None

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: None

• Listing: None

• Earnings: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 10:30 am: Australia Balance of Trade (Nov)

• 10:30 am: Australia Retail Sales (Nov)

• 5:00 pm: Germany Balance of Trade (Nov)