Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to fall, S&P 500 and Nasdaq edge higher + Woolworths, Fortescue earnings

Major US benchmarks rose slightly as investors looked ahead to Nvidia earnings tomorrow, Australia's monthly CPI indicator is due at 11:30 am, gold prices score a second consecutive record close and several high profile companies are due to report this morning, including Fortescue, Woolworths and Flight Centre.

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 recovered from a weak start to close near best levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks finished mostly higher, just off best levels after reversing some early morning weakness

• Another relatively uneventful session ahead of Nvidia earnings tomorrow

• US dollar index hits a fresh 13-month low, gold marked a second consecutive record close and oil prices retreated after Tuesday’s rally

• Options markets implying record US$300bn swing in shares on Nvidia results (RT)

• Burberry poised to exit FTSE 100 Index at September's quarterly rebalancing (BBG)

• BofA clients pulled money from US market for first time in three weeks on concerns over risk-on momentum (BBG)

• Goldman Sachs cuts 2025 Brent crude forecast (RT)

STOCKS

• Nvidia earnings a pivotal moment for AI rally as investors seek continued growth (RT)

• Apple CFO to step down at end of 2024 as part of planned succession (BBG)

• Amazon launching overhaul of Alexa, upgraded version requiring paid subscription (WP)

• Cava CEO and other insiders sell shares following recent rally (WSJ)

• Klarna says it can employ as few as 2,000 employees in coming years due to AI, down from 5,000 a year-ago (FT)

POLITICS & GEOPOLITICS

• Russia launches one of its biggest attacks on Ukraine since start of war (RT)

• Macron and Le Pen reject leftist PM, deepening French political crisis (BBG)

• Japan condemns unacceptable Chinese military plane incursion into its airspace (FT)

• Moody's warns all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah/Iran would have significant credit consequences (RTs)

ECONOMY

• German consumer sentiment plunges on job fears (RT)

• UK retail prices fall for first time in three years as rate cut debate continues (BBG)

• China industrial profit growth reaches highest in five months amid boost from high-tech manufacturing (BBG)

• US office values down 52% from highs as landlords walk away (BBG)

ASX TODAY

Today’s a massive earnings day. You can view all announcements via our ASX Announcements page.

• Yancoal could target Kestrel if its Anglo ambitions fail to fly (The Aus)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

A few key reporters and market expectations:

• Flight Centre: Macquarie is expecting FY24 TTV of $23.7bn, underlying NPAT of $221m, EPS of 102 cents and total dividend of 50.6 cents per share

• Fortescue: Goldman Sachs (25-Jul) forecasts EBITDA of US$10.76bn, EPS of 195 US cents and a total dividend of 126 US cents per share at a 65% payout ratio. For FY25, they're expecting production of 195Mt, with C1 cash costs of US$22.2/wmt

• NextDC: FY24 numbers were released last night after hours. FY24 EBITDA of $204.3m ahead of $190-200m guidance and $197.4m consensus. FY25 revenue guidance ahead of consensus ($340-350m vs. $308m) but adj EBITDA soft ($210-220m vs. $229m consensus)

• Woolworths: Macquarie forecasts for FY24 include Group sales of $67.59bn, underlying NPAT of $1.73bn and a total dividend of 138 cents per share.

BROKER MOVES

• Coles downgraded to Hold from Add; target up to $19.20 from $18.95 (Morgans)

• Guzman Y Gomez downgraded to Hold from Add; target up to $37.70 from $30.80 (Morgans)

• Helloworld downgraded to Hold from Add; target cut to $2.30 from $3.33 (Morgans)

• Johns Lyng Group downgraded to Neutral from Buy; target cut to $4.55 from $7.85 (Citi)

• Lovisa downgraded to Neutral from Buy; target cut to $30.59 from $33.08 (Jarden)

• McMillan Shakespeare downgraded to Hold; target cut to $18.50 from $21.80 (CG)

• National Storage REIT upgraded to Outperform from Hold; target increased to $2.64 from $2.25 (CLSA)

• Ramsay Healthcare downgraded to Hold from Outperform; target cut to $49.50 from $50.80 (CLSA)

• Vulcan Steel downgraded to Hold from Add; target cut to $6.70 from $8.60 (Morgans)

• Woodside downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight; target cut to $30 from $32 (Morgan Stanley)

• Worley upgraded to Buy from Hold; target down to $16.20 from $16.80 (Jefferies)

• Worley upgraded to Overweight from Neutral; target up to $17 from $16.80 (JPMorgan)

• Zip upgraded to Buy from Hold; target up to $2.50 from $1.95 (Jefferies)  

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Wed 28 Aug: Apiam Animal Health (AHX) – $0.01, Fiducian Group (FID) – $0.211, Telstra (TLS) – $0.09, Treasury Wine (TWE) – $0.19, Bell Financial Group (BFG) – $0.04, Ooh!Media (OML) – $0.018, The Lottery Corp (TLC) – $0.105, Maxiparts (MXI) – $0.026, Mitchell Services (MSV) – $0.02

• Thu 29 Aug: REA Group (REA) – $1.02, Beach Energy (BPT) – $0.02, Evolution Mining (EVN) – $0.05, Ventia Services (VNT) – $0.09, Ebos Group (EBO) – $0.497, Bapcor (BAP) – $0.055, Corporate Travel (CTD) – $0.12, Insurance Australia (IAG) – $0.17, Jumbo Interactive  (JIN) – $0.275, Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure (DBI) – $).054, Regal Partners (RPL) – $0.08, Gold Road (GOR) – $0.005

• Fri 30 Aug: Orora (ORA) – $0.05, Hitech Group (HIT) – $0.05, Ampol (ALD) – $0.60, Carlton Investments (CIN) – $0.63, Big River (BRI) – $0.02, Infomedia (IFM) – $0.02 

• Mon 2 Sep: Pinnacle Investment Management (PNI) – $0.264, Integrated Research (IRI) – $0.02, Prime Financial Group (PFG) – $0.009, EQT (EQT) – $0.53, GR Engineering Services (GNG) – $0.10, Arn Media (A1N) – $0.012

• Tue 3 Sep: Endeavour Group (EDV) – $0.075, Stanmore Resources (SMR) – $0.065, Solvar (SVR) – $0.05, Peter Warren Automotive (PWR) – $0.06, Lynch Group (LGL) – $0.08, Codan (CDA) – $0.12, Iluka Resources (ILU) – $0.04, Northern Star (NST) – $0.25

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: BWP (BWP) – $0.09, Dexus (DXS) – $0.21, Mirvac Group (MGR) – $0.06, Waypoint REIT (WPR) – $0.04, Alcoa (AAI) – $0.10

• Listing: None  

• Earnings: Adairs (ADH), Aurelia Metals (AMI), APA Group (APA), Bubs Australia (BUB), Duratec (DUR), Flight Centre (FLT), Fortescue (FMG), Immutep (IMM), Lynas Rare Earths (LYC), Nine Entertainment (NEC), Perseus Mining (PRU), Platinum Asset Management (PTM), SmartGroup (SIQ), Tabcorp (TAH), Woolworths (WOW)

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 11:30 am: Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Jul)