Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to fall, S&P 500 and Nasdaq close out August higher

ASX 200 futures are trading 18 points lower, down -0.22%, as of 8:30 am AEST.

Major US benchmarks finished August on a positive note, Intel is working with bankers to fix its troubled core business, US July core PCE (the Fed's preferred inflation gauge) printed in-line with market expectations, Woolworths sold its remaining stake in Endeavour Group and hundreds of companies will trade ex-dividend over the next couple of days.

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 rallied right before close to finish at best levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks rallied to finish near best levels 

• Key catalysts – July core PCE printed 2.6% vs. 2.7% consensus as well as some better tech earnings takeaways (Dell, Autodesk) and further soft landing traction

• US Weekly Recap: Dow +0.9%, S&P 500 +0.2%, Russell 2000 -0.05%, Nasdaq -0.9%

• US Monthly Recap: S&P 500 +2.2%, Dow +1.7%, Nasdaq +0.6%, Russell 2000 -1.6%

• Treasuries mark fourth straight monthly advance, longest stretch since 2020 (BBG)

• Citi retains bullish US dollar call, citing upside if Trump wins election (BBG)

STOCKS

• Intel shares soar on news that the chipmaker is working with bankers to explore options to address weakness in its core business (BBG)

• Dell's AI server sales surge, driving better-than-expected revenue (BBG)

• BHP proceeds with expansion of copper output at Australia's Olympic Dam (BBG)

CENTRAL BANKS

• ECB's Schnabel urges caution on rate cuts as inflation risks persist (BBG)

• BoJ tightening expected to continue, but timing of next rate hike debated (CNBC)

• China faces difficult path in interest rate reform push amid liquidity risks, market constraints (RT)

POLITICS & GEOPOLITICS

• Polls show Harris leading Trump nationally and in swing states (RT)

ECONOMY

• US July core PCE up 0.2% month-on-month, in-line with consensus and up 2.6% year-on-year, below 2.7% consensus (RT)

• French inflation hits three-year low, strengthening case for ECB date cuts (BBG)

• Tokyo core inflation unexpectedly accelerates as Japan retail sales, industrial production and labor market soften (BBG)

• Australian retail sales flat as consumers pull back after end of mid-year sales (BBG)

ASX TODAY

• Ansell Chairman Nigel David discloses purchase of 3,400 shares, beneficially owns approximately 17,000 shares after the transaction (ANN)

• Bluescope CEO Mark Vasella discloses sale of 116,000 shares, on-market sale was made to meet tax liabilities (BSL)

• COG Financial Services holder TIGA raises stake to 10.6% from 7.1% (COG)

• CSL enters deal to sell Ruide operations to Chengdu Rongsheng Pharma for $185 million cash, transaction to close by end of calendar year 2024 (CSL)

• GDI Property Group CEO Stephen Burns discloses purchase of 218,000 shares (GDI)

• Goodman Group back in the spotlight, with suggestions state-owned China Investment Corp could be testing a selldown of its $5bn stake (The Aus)

• Woolworths has sold its remaining shares in Endeavour Group at $5.23 per share or a 2.1% discount to its last close (AFR)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

A relatively uneventful overnight session. A few sub-sectors ticked marginally higher, including Copper Miners (+1.3%), Homebuilders (+1.2%), Uranium (+1.0%). While the underperformers include Rare Earths/Strategic Metals (-1.1%) and Gold Miners (-0.6%).

A handful of smaller cap companies reported their FY24 results after hours on Friday. Some of the more interesting ones include Motor Cycle Holdings, DGL Group and Terracom.

BROKER MOVES

• Arcadium Lithium initiated Neutral with $3.00 target (UBS)

• Dicker Data upgraded to Overweight from Neutral; target up to $10.40 from $9.9 (JPM)

• IGO downgraded to Sell from Neutral; target cut to $4.95 from $5.40 (UBS)

• Liontown downgraded to Sell from Neutral; target cut to $0.70 from $0.85 (UBS)

• Nuix initiated with $6.10 target (JEF)

• Platinum AM downgraded to Sell from Neutral; target cut to $0.91 from $1.05 (UBS)

• TPG Telecom downgraded to Neutral from Overweight; target remains $5.10 (JPM)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Mon 2 Sep: Pinnacle Investment Management (PNI) – $0.264, Integrated Research (IRI) – $0.02, Prime Financial Group (PFG) – $0.009, EQT (EQT) – $0.53, GR Engineering Services (GNG) – $0.10, Arn Media (A1N) – $0.012,  Tabcorp (TAH) – $0.003, COG Financial Services (COG) – $0.044, Bendigo Bank (BEN) – $0.33, 

• Tue 3 Sep: Endeavour Group (EDV) – $0.075, Stanmore Resources (SMR) – $0.065, Solvar (SVR) – $0.05, Peter Warren Automotive (PWR) – $0.06, Lynch Group (LGL) – $0.08, Codan (CDA) – $0.12, Iluka Resources (ILU) – $0.04, Northern Star (NST) – $0.25, Coles (COL) – $0.32, Lynch Group (LGL) – $0.08, Steadfast (SDF) – $0.103, Woolworths (WOW) – $0.97, Karoon Energy (KAR) – $0.045, Nickel Industries (NIC) – $0.025, Wesfarmers (WES) – $1.07

• Wed 4 Sep: Pacific Current Group (PAC) – $0.23, Praemium (PPS) – $0.01, Shaver Shop (SSG) – $0.055, Newmont (NEM) – $0.265, Pro Medicus (PME) – $0.22, Seek (SEK) – $0.16, Lifestyle Communities (LIC), Helia Group (HLI) – $0.15, Clearview Wealth (CVW) – $0.017, Medibank (MPL) – $0.09, Whitehaven Coal (WHC) – $0.13, Sonic Healthcare (SHL) – $0.63, Universal Store (UNI) – $0.19, Objective Corp (OCL) – $0.08, Servcorp (SRV) – $0.13, Praemium (PPS) – $0.01, Shaver Shop (SSG) – $0.01, Pacific Current Group (PAC) – $0.23

• Thu 5 Sep: Reliance Worldwide (RWC) – $0.038, Ironbark Capital (IBC) – $0.013, Laserbond (LBL) – $0.008, Nib Holdings (NHF) – $0.14, Veem (VEE) – $0.008, Beacon Lighting (BLX) – $0.038, Monash IVF (MVF) – $0.025, SDI (SDI) – $0.019, Woodside (WDS) – $1.018, GTN (GTN) – $0.017, Helloworld (HLO) – $0.06, Origin Energy (ORG) – $0.275, Schaffer Corp (SFC) – $0.45, Sky Network (SKT) – $0.109, Amcor (AMC) – $0.19

• Fri 6 Sep: Summerset Group (SNZ) – $0.088, Smartgroup (SIQ) – $0.175, Cryosite (CTE) – $0.05, AUB Group (AUB) – $0.59, G8 Education (GEM) – $0.02, Generation Development (GDG) – $0.01, Aussie Broadband (ABB) – $0.04, Wisetech Global (WTC) – $0.092

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Reckon (RKN), Seven Group (SVW), Dicker Data (DDR), National Storage REIT (NSR)

• Listing: None  

• Earnings: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 11:45 am: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Aug)