Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to fall, S&P 500 and Nasdaq close at record highs + Gold prices slump

ASX 200 futures are trading 33 points lower, down -0.42% as of 8:30 am AEST.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at fresh all-time highs ahead of a catalyst heavy week – with US inflation and the Fed's interest rate decision due on Wednesday, Apple announces a major new partnership with OpenAI, gold has its worst day in three-and-a-half years after China's central bank halts gold purchases and takeover speculation is rife – with Bapcor, Strike Energy and Healius attracting possibly buyouts.

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 over the last two sessions (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• S&P 500 higher, finished near best levels and recouped Friday’s weakness – over the last two sessions, the index is up 0.15%

• Hotter-than-expected US NFP and unemployment data pushed bond yields higher on Friday, with the US 2-year yield up 16 bps to 4.89%

• Gold slumps as China's central bank halts 18-month buying spree (Bloomberg)

• France leads European market sell-off after Macron snap election call (Bloomberg)

• Traders brace for volatility spike ahead of this week's two main macro events - US inflation, Fed decision (Bloomberg)

• Big tech driving S&P rally but the rest may need to step up as earnings slow (Bloomberg)

• Fund managers increasingly opting for software over semi stocks (Bloomberg)

• GameStop sell-off steepens as meme stock rally loses steam (CNBC)

• BofA's Hartnett says a Fed rate cut signal trouble for the economy (Bloomberg)

• Oil rises after Goldman report flags summer deficit on strong fuel demand (CNBC)

STOCKS

• Apple partners with OpenAI to integrate ChatGPT into operating system (The Verge)

• Apple unveils iOS 18 with more customisation, Siri update, focus on AI (Tech Crunch)

• Boeing's weak delivery figures this week could deliver blow to credit outlook (FT)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Investors brace for Fed to dial back its 2024 cut predictions this week (FT)

• Lagarde says ECB could wait several meetings between rate cuts (Reuters)

• ECB hawks stress caution and data-dependence following initial rate cut (Bloomberg)

• RBI leaves rates unchanged, retains hawkish policy stance (Bloomberg)

GEOPOLITICS

• US close to finalising landmark defence treaty with Saudi Arabia (WSJ)

• EU Commission expected to disclose Chinese EV tariffs (Reuters)

• Israeli forces step up Rafah campaign as tanks push west (Reuters)

• US lawmakers call to add battery companies China's CATL, Gotion to import ban list, report says (Reuters)

ECONOMY

• Japan GDP contracts in Q1 by less than estimates (Bloomberg)

• Eye-popping US May payrolls jump may set back Fed ease (Reuters)

• US job gains surge past expectations, wage growth quickens (Reuters)

• China export growth tops forecasts, but imports underwhelm (Reuters)

• UN food price index up for third consecutive month in May (Reuters)

ASX TODAY

• ASX 200 set to open lower, playing catch up as it digests two days' worth of market movements due to the long weekend closure

• Gold down 2.7% in the last two sessions after the PBOC ended a massive 18-month buying spree – gold equities sold off sharply last Friday but bounced on Monday (e.g. Newmont down 5.0% followed by 2.3% bounce)

• Oil prices up 2.4% in the last two sessions, with Goldman expecting a sizeable deficit in the third quarter – the analysts see a US$75 floor and US$90 ceiling for Brent this year – this could see some positive flow for local energy names

• Bapcor has attracted an opportunistic suitor after three profit downgrades in the past twelve months (AFR)

• GYG beefs up IPO offer by almost $100m to $335m (AFR)

• IDP Education shares snapped up by Ellerston Capital, hoping for a rebound (AFR)

• Opthea launches $220m capital raising (AFR)

• Strike Energy holder Hancock Prospecting eyeing a possible buyout (The Aus)

BROKER MOVES

• APM downgraded to hold from buy but target up to $1.45 from $1.40 (Bell Potter)

• Brambles upgraded to Overweight from Equal-weight; target up to $16.60 from $15.70 (Morgan Stanley)

• Codan downgraded to Neutral from Outperform but target up to $11.15 from $11.14 (Macquarie)

• Emerald Resources initiated Buy with $4.60 target (Canaccord) 

• SiteMinder upgraded to Overweight from Market-weight; target up o $6.50 from $5.40 (Wilsons)

Companies trading ex-dividend: 

• Tue 11 June: McGrath (MEA) – $0.016

• Wed 12 June: Tower (TWR) – $0.024, ALS (ALQ) – $0.196

• Thu 13 June:  Champion Iron (CIA) – $0.11, Plato Income Maximiser (PL8) – $0.006, Incitec Pivot (IPL) – $0.043 

• Fri 14 June: None

• Mon 17 June: None

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Amcor (AMC) – $0.19

• Listing: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 11:30 am: NAB Business Confidence (May)

• 4:00 pm: UK Unemployment Rate (Apr)