Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to fall, Evergrande files for bankruptcy + Charts of the Week

US futures tumble as China's second largest property developer Evergrande files for Chapter 15 bankruptcy in New York, Walmart posts better-than-expected earnings as customers seek better value across more categories, San Francisco Fed warns that US pandemic-era savings may deplete in the third quarter and Friday's Charts of the Week.

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 sells off intraday to finish at worst levels (Source: TradingView)

MARKETS

• S&P 500 sold off intraday to finish at worst levels, led by big tech

• S&P 500 now down 5.1% from 27 July peak

• US futures tumble as China's Evergrande files for bankruptcy in New York, with S&P 500 futures down 0.94% at the time of writing

• Singapore iron ore futures bounced 4.4% on Thursday to US$105 a tonne

• US 10-year yield is on a 7-day streak, up 27 bps to near 15-year highs

• Market sentiment remains downbeat with a focus on rising yields, scepticism about peak interest rates, concerns that disinflation momentum may begin to fade, weak China growth and the resilient US economy (which encourages a higher-for-longer scenario)

• FOMC minutes say inflation risks could require further tightening (Bloomberg)

• Global yields reach 15-year high as rate-hike worries build (Bloomberg)

• Goldman Sachs blames zero-day options for fueling selloff (Bloomberg)

• Bitcoin slumps below US$28,000 for the first time since late June (Bloomberg)

EARNINGS

Cisco (+3.3%): Double beat, quarterly revenue growth of 16% year-on-year was more than 100 bps ahead of consensus, noted US$500m in AI infrastructure build outs but cautious on current drawdown of backlog.  

Walmart (-2.2%): Double beat, quarterly comparable sales growth of 6.3% (230 bps better than consensus), cycling last year’s elevated levels of markdowns and supply chain costs, analysts flagged such tailwinds as consumers trade down.

• Food strength, discretionary weakness: "We had another strong quarter ... Food is a strength, but we’re also encouraged by our results in general merchandise versus our expectations when we started the quarter.” – CEO Doug McMillon

• Consumers trade down: "Customers are stretching their dollars further and seeking better value across more categories more often. We see grocery staples and in-home meal options being purchased more often.” – CFO John D. Rainey

CHINA

• China Evergrande Group files for Chapter 15 bankruptcy protection (Bloomberg)

• China's Xi calls for patience amid China's economic gloom (SCMP)

• China shadow bank Zhongzhi sparks alarm over $3tn shadow finance sector (FT)

• Global funds are fleeing China stocks in record selling streak (FT)

• China's housing slump is much worse than official data shows (Bloomberg)

• Worst defaults in months fuel stress in China's credit market (Bloomberg)

ECONOMY

• US pandemic-era excess savings may be depleted in Q3, according to San Francisco Fed study (SF Fed)

• Japan exports unexpectedly shrink for first time in more than two years (Bloomberg)

• Australian unemployment rises to 3.7% as rate hikes take toll (Bloomberg)

Deeper Dive: Charts of the Week

This segment of the morning wrap brings you weekly technical commentary on the ASX 200 and some of the more interesting charts in the market. These are not meant as recommendations. They are for illustrative purposes only. Any discussion of past performance is for educational purposes only. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future return. Always do your own research.

ASX 200 – Same old story

ASX 200 daily chart (Source: Commsec)

There really isn’t anything to say here that hasn’t already been said. The index remains range bound and stuck in no man’s land. Until the price action tests the boundaries of the range, or indeed breaks through them, there really isn’t anything worth talking about from a trading perspective.

ARB Corp (ASX: ARB) – Challenging resistance

ARB Corp daily chart (Source: Commsec)

ARB has been rallying of late and is on the verge of challenging long-term resistance around $34. Average volumes have been on the rise through the most recent part of the rally in support. Whether or not the bulls can break the stock above $34 will likely depend on how the company reports next Tuesday, 22 August. Whilst buying a stock ahead of a result is fraught with risk, if a positive set of numbers leads to a break above $34 and renewed momentum, that could provide a worthwhile opportunity. One for the watchlist.

Codan (ASX: CDA) – Detecting a breakout

Codan daily chart (Source: Commsec)

If ARB above constitutes the ‘before’ image, then CDA can be considered the ‘after’ image. CDA has already reported results, which were well received by the market, and the stock has broken higher – to fresh 52-week highs. The move has come after a solid rally and consolidation period over the past 12 months, and it has come on a volume spike but without the RSI being overcooked. There is lots of complementary bullish technical evidence on the CDA chart and the price action is now trading in clean air.

ASX corporate actions occurring today:

• Trading ex-div: Ansell (ANN) – $0.396, Newcrest (NCM) – $0.306, Lendlease (LLC) – $0.11, GWA Group (GWA) – $0.07

• Dividends paid: Lots of REITs paying out dividends today. See the full list here.

• Listing: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 9:30 am: Japan Inflation 

• 4:00 pm: UK Retail Sales