Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to fall, Dow hits fresh all-time highs, Nasdaq surges as SpaceX extends gains

In a nutshell:

• S&P 500 and Nasdaq sharply higher but still 1-2% off record highs after Trump declared the US-Iran war over and authorised the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz

• Oil sank to its lowest since March, Brent and WTI both near the low US$80s, as the prospect of restored Gulf flows unwound the war risk premium

• Fox slumped ~15% after agreeing to buy Roku for about $22bn, while SpaceX extended its blockbuster IPO rally ahead of Nasdaq-100 fast-entry inclusion

Let's dive in.

• Major US benchmarks finished higher and near session highs, with the Dow and Equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.58%) closing at record highs

• Nasdaq soared 3.07%, marking its best day since late March and up 6.0% in the last three sessions

• VIX fell 8% to ~16 as the US-Iran framework deal drained geopolitical risk from equity markets

• US 10-year Treasury yield hovered around 4.47%, little changed, as easing energy prices offset still-elevated inflation ahead of this week's FOMC decision

• Broad risk-on move driven by the weekend agreement between US and Iran, MoU set to be signed in Switzerland on Friday, deal slightly eased Fed hike expectations (markets pricing ~17 bps by year-end), though deal does not resolve nuclear talks and Iran’s intentions to charge a toll after the 60-day negotiation period

• Shares of large US industrial companies reach record highs after US-Iran interim peace deal (BBG)

• Citadel says higher rates may challenge risk assets, citing similarities to dot-com boom, 70's oil shock (BBG)

• JPM trading desk more bullish on Middle East optimism, still see risks from hawkish Fed, leveraged ETFs (BBG)

• Goldman Sachs cut all remaining 2026 Fed rate cuts from its forecast, shifting expected easing into 2027 while holding its $5,400 year-end gold target (GS)

• SpaceX's listing is set to trigger Nasdaq-100 fast-entry inclusion around early July, forcing buying from QQQ and other passive funds against a tiny free float (ETF)

• Investors, inspired by SpaceX, are flocking to space ventures like satellites and laser communications (WSJ)

• Trump declared the US-Iran war over on Truth Social, authorising the toll-free reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, will usher in a 60-day ceasefire extension (including in Lebanon) where negotiations will take place regarding Iran's nuclear program and prospects for sanctions relief (NBC)

• US-Iran peace deal signing ceremony set for Friday in Switzerland according to Pakistan (NBC)

• Shipowners and traders express caution over US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz (BBG)

• Fox to acquire Roku for ~$22bn in cash and stock, creating the third-largest US TV player by viewing share, Fox shares tumble 15% over price and the scale of the streaming pivot (BBG)

• SpaceX extended its rally, up 19.6% after 19.2% first-day gain, with the stock supported by index inclusion and a constrained float (BBG)

• Elon Musk states SpaceX could generate $1T in revenue by 2030, post-IPO valuation over $2T (RT)

• Morningstar warned SpaceX's valuation only stacks up under its most optimistic "moonshot" scenario, flagging late-July or August earnings as the first key test (YF)

• Nvidia to raise $20-25bn through US bond issuance, its first debt market move in five years (RT)

• UK to ban social media for those under age 16 (RT)

• US Supreme Court declined to limit Trump's tariff authority, leaving in place first-term import taxes on hundreds of billions of dollars of Chinese goods (BBG)

• Trump administration is relaunching its tariff agenda via Section 301 investigations targeting around 60 economies, including the EU, after February's adverse Supreme Court ruling (AJ)

• Trump threatens 100% tariff on French wine exports if France doesn't repeal its digital services tax (NYP)

• Kevin Warsh faces pressure from Trump and rising bond market bets on upcoming rate hikes (BBG)

• BOJ set to hike rate to its highest in 30 years (BBG)

• RBA expected to hold, market-implied odds for another rate hike by year-end decrease from 100% to 60% (BBG)

• China's monthly data dump to show consumption contracted in May, survey shows (BBG)

• Sonic Healthcare completes sale and leaseback of Brisbane hub laboratory for $445m, taxable capital gain on sale is $300m, with $170m in accumulated losses to offset this (SHL)

• Accent Group upgraded to Equal-weight from Underweight; target up to $0.75 from $0.55 (Morgan Stanley)

• Transurban downgraded to Underweight from Neutral; target cut to $13.75 from $14.00 (JPMorgan)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Tue 16 Jun: None

• Wed 17 Jun: Select Harvests (SHV) – $0.035, WAM Active (WAA) – $0.01, WAM Income Maximiser (WMX) – $0.006

• Thu 18 Jun: AFT Pharmaceuticals (AFP) – $0.016

• Fri 19 Jun: None

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: None

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 12:30 pm: China House Price Index

• 1:00 pm: China Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Fixed Asset Investment

• 2:00 pm: BoJ Interest Rate Decision (Ests: 25 bp hike to 1.0%)

• 3:30 pm: RBA Interest Rate Decision (Ests: Hold at 4.35%)

• 11:30 pm: US Building Permits, Housing Starts