Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to fall ahead of May inflation data, S&P 500 and Nasdaq snap 3-day decline

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq snapped a three-day losing streak after Nvidia bounced 6.7%, Canada's hotter-than-expected inflation data dampens July rate cut bets, Virgin Australia could go public as soon as Christmas and Goldman Sachs initiates coverage of Bellevue Gold.

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 shakes off midday weakness to close near session highs (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks finished mixed and a complete opposite of yesterday’s session

• S&P 500 and Nasdaq snapped a three-day losing streak, while the Equal-Weight S&P 500 underperformed the official index by more than 100 bps

• Value and cyclicals led to the downside, notably Real Estate, Materials and Utilities 

• Nvidia (+6.7%) bounced after falling as much as 16% from its highs last Thursday, erasing almost US$450bn in market cap

• Relatively uneventful session in terms of catalysts, the overnight strength being driven more by technical factors than by fundamental ones 

• Yen might fall to 38-year low as intervention warnings fail to resonate (Bloomberg)

• JPMorgan strategists say bond market liquidity continues to improve (Bloomberg)

STOCKS

• Rivian shares surge 30% after hours following US$5bn investment from Volkswagen to develop next gen EVs (Forbes)

• FedEx surges after-hours as 2025 outlook beats estimates on cost cuts (Yahoo)

• Google developing challenger to Meta's chatbots (The Information)

• Banks discreetly dump CRE loans amid worries about further losses (NY Times)

• Nike bets on China comeback with $1,000 Jordan high top sneakers (Bloomberg)

• Novo Nordisk to spend US$4.1bn to boost US manufacturing (Reuters)

• Carnival raises full-year outlook amid strong demand (Bloomberg)

• Walmart CFO says Q2 will be the most challenging quarter from a comp perspective (Transcript)

CENTRAL BANKS

• BOJ opens door for double hawkish surprise with bigger QT and rate hike (Reuters)

• ECB's Schnabel downplays likelihood of ECB-Fed policy divergence (Bloomberg)

GEOPOLITICS

• Trump plans to halt US military aid to Kyiv unless it talks peace with Moscow (Reuters)

• US warned Hezbollah that it can't hold Israel back if escalation continues (Axios)

• Washington probes China Telecom and China Mobile over internet risks (Reuters)

• France's Macron warns of civil war risk in snap elections as Le Pen advances in polls (Bloomberg)

ECONOMY

• Canada inflation unexpectedly jumps to 2.9% in May from 2.7% expected and above 2.6% consensus, market trims July rate cut bets (Reuters)

• Global supply chains under pressure as Houthis step up strikes on vessels (NY Times)

• Australia consumer sentiment remains downbeat on RBA rate hike fears (Bloomberg)

ASX TODAY

• ASX 200 to fall following a weak overnight lead for ex-growth sectors and continued weakness across key commodities including copper and gold

• Aristocrat Leisure issues investor day presentation, targets at least $1bn in FY29 revenue from Interactive business, representing five-year CAGR of more than 20% (ALL)

• Qualitas secures first commitment from North American-based global institutional investor, with $550m to be invested in CRE private credit (QAL)

• Renesas receives Australia's FIRB approval for acquisition of Altium (ALU)

• Star Entertainment appoints Steve McCann as Chief Executive, McCann was formerly the CEO of Crown Resorts and prior to that served as Lendlease CEO (SGR)

• Virgin Australia seeking to go public by Christmas (The Aus)

BROKER MOVES

• Bellevue Gold initiated Buy with $2.20 target (Goldman Sachs)

• Healius downgraded to Underperform from Neutral; target cut to $1.30 from $1.50 (BofA)

• Monadelphous Group initiated Hold with $14.40 target (Morgans)

• ResMed downgraded to Perform from Outperform (Oppenheimer)

• Spark New Zealand upgraded to Overweight from Neutral; target cut to NZ$4.67 from NZ$5.03 (Jarden)

• Super Retail Group upgraded to Buy from Neutral; target up to $15 from $13 (UBS)

Companies trading ex-dividend: 

• Wed 26 June: Fisher & Paykel (FPH) – $0.218, Duxton Farms (DBF) – $0.10

• Thu 27 June – REITs: HealthCo Healthcare and Wellness REIT (HCW) – $0.002, Centuria Industrial REIT (CIP) – $0.04, Centuria Office REIT (COF) – $0.03,  Homeco Daily Needs REIT (HDN) – $0.021, Arena REIT (ARF) – $0.043, Charter Hall Long Wale REIT (CLW) – $0.065, Garda Property Group (GDF) – $0.016, Hotel Property Investments (HPI) – $0.095, Charter Hall (CHC) – $0.23, Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT (CQE) – $0.04, Waypoint REIT (WPR) – $0.041, GDI Property Group (GDI) – $0.025, National Storage (NSR) – $0.055, Goodman Group (GMG) – $0.15, Stockland (SGP) – $0.166, Growthpoint Properties (GOZ) – $0.097, Dexus Convenience Retail REIT (DXC) – $0.053, Dexus Industria REIT (DXI) – $0.041, Dexus (DXS) – $0.213

• Thu 27 June – Everything else: Rural Funds Group (RFF) – $0.029, Virgin Money (VUK) – $0.039, Mirvac Group (MGR) – $0.06, Region Group (RGN) – $0.07

• Fri 28 June: Abacus Group (ABG) – $0.043, Ophir High Conviction Fund (OPH) – $0.06, Danakali (DNK) – $0.009, Abacus Storage King (ASK) – $0.03 

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Elders (ELD) – $0.18

• Listing: Piche Resources at 12:00 pm 

• Earnings:None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 11:30 am: Australia Monthly CPI (May)