Morning Wrap: ASX 200 set to start new week on a positive note

In a nutshell:

• ASX set for a positive start to new trading week

• Relief rally welcome after Friday's 146-point slide

• Consumer and business confidence numbers released this week

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 rallied strongly from mid-session lows to close near highs (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks were higher in choppy Friday trading as stocks finished a bit off best levels. 

• Nasdaq enters correction amid tariff chaos and global bond selloff (Reuters)

• Last week's US declines in groups including cyclicals, small caps suggest recession trade is back (WSJ)

• Global investor preference shifting from Japan to Europe, China (Nikkei)

• Germany's fiscal boost reshapes Eurozone economic outlook, pushing bond yields and rate expectations higher (Reuters)

• China's bond yields surge as rate cut doubts grow and stocks rally (Bloomberg)

• JPMorgan downgraded emerging market sovereign debt amid valuation concerns (Reuters)

STOCKS

• Broadcom guides sales above expectations amid growth in AI infrastructure spending (Bloomberg)

• Hewlett-Packard Enterprise's profit guidance underwhelms, cites pressure from costs, sales discounting (Bloomberg)

• Tesla sales, brand appeal waning as Musk delves deeper into politics (WSJ)

• Walgreens goes private in $23.7B deal with Sycamore Partners, ending century-long public run (CNN)

• Bidding war intensifies as Insignia grants due diligence to Bain and CC Capital after $3.34B offers (Reuters)

• Volkswagen likely to avoid Trump's 25% tariffs while BMW and others face uncertainty (Reuters)

• Bayer eyes exit from popular Roundup amid US legal risks (Reuters)

GEOPOLITICS & TRADE

• China to impose retaliatory tariffs on some Canadian products as trade war heats up (CNBC)

• Trump eases trade measures amid market jitters and political pressure (SkyNews)

• Mexican President Sheinbaum to review China tariffs amid US urging to match its own tariffs on Beijing (Bloomberg)

• Tariffs threaten to intensify competition between margin-constrained Chinese exporters (Bloomberg)

• US to impose fees on China-linked ships and urges allies to follow suit (Reuters)

• Ukraine and US to begin peace talks in Saudi Arabia amid shifting alliances (FT)

• EU leaders confront Trump's Ukraine plan, pledge defence boost (FT)

• China's vows to maintain global stability, says friendship with Russia will not change (Bloomberg)

• Trump criticises US-Japan security treaty, sparking concerns in Tokyo (Bloomberg)

• Cyclone Alfred delays Australian election, PM points to May vote (Bloomberg)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Fed Governor Waller sees room for 2-3 rate cuts in 2025, downplays tariff impact on inflation (Bloomberg)

• Atlanta Fed's Bostic says it could be months before there is policy clarity, signalling unchanged rates through spring (Reuters)

• ECB cuts rates amid phenomenal uncertainty, signals potential pause in easing cycle (Reuters)

• Yuan strength may provide room for PBOC to add to liquidity without weighing on currency (Bloomberg)

ECONOMY

• Fed Chair Powell says US economy continues to be in good place

• February headline payrolls a bit below consensus, while January revised down. Wage growth in line, while unemployment rate a bit higher than expected. 

• Japan poised to declare end of deflation era as economic indicators turn positive (Reuters)

• China export growth slides, imports contract, as Trump tariffs go into effect (Bloomberg)

ASX TODAY

• Rio Tinto said to reverse plans for $5B share offering following feedback from holders -- Bloomberg

• Star Entertainment Group signs A$250M senior secured bridge facility with King Street Capital Management 

• McPherson's Consumer Products enters into pharmacy wholesaler agreement with Sigma for three-year term commencing on 1-May

• GQG Partners reports 28-Feb FUM $160.5B vs month-ago $160.4B

• St. Barbara guides H2 Gold production 32.5-42.5Koz at ASIC of A$3,400-3,800/oz, revises lower FY gold production guidance

• Ramsay, Healthscope continue to push for insurers to pay a higher percentage of their premiums to hospitals - Australian Financial Review

• Scentre Group pushing for rezoning approvals in order to build homes across two Westfield shopping centres in NSW - Australian Financial Review

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• The ASX 200 slipped below the 8000 key level last week - will the the bulls reclain and defend it today?

• Trump declined to rule out the possibility of a recession yesterday, which would knock back US equities further.

• Oil plays to come under pressure after oil suffered its seventh weekly loss in a row.

• Iron ore plays will be in focus ahead of potential cuts to China's steel production.

BROKER MOVES

• Goodman Group upgraded to High-conviction Outperform from Outperform at CLSA; target remains $39.77

Key events

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Mon 10 Mar: Adairs (ADH) – $0.065, Blackwall (BWF) – $0.005, COG Financial Services (COG) – $0.03, CSL (CSL) – $2.073, Generation Development Group (GDG) – $0.01, Iress (IRE) – $0.10, Naos Ex-50 Opportunities Company (NAC) – $0.015, Naos Small Cap Opportunities Company (NSC) – $0.013, Nine Entertainment Co. (NEC) – $0.035, Perseus Mining (PRU) – $0.025, SGH (SGH) – $0.30, Super Retail Group (SUL) – $0.32.

• Tues 11 Mar: Coronado Global Resources (CRN) – $0.006, CUE Energy Resources (CUE) – $0.01, Dusk Group (DSK) – $0.10, Echelon Resources (ECH) – $0.013, Helloworld Travel (HLO) – $0.08, Ive Group (IGL) – $0.095, News Corporation (NWS) – $0.112, News Corporation (NWSLV) – $0.112, Qantas Airways (QAN) – $0.264, Qualitas (QAL) – $0.025.

• Wed 12 Mar: Brambles (BXB) – $0.303, Breville Group (BRG) – $0.18, Kip McGrath Education Centres (KME) – $0.005, Motorcycle Holdings (MTO) – $0.08, Perpetual Equity Investment Company (PIC) – $0.04, WCM Global Growth (WQG) – $0.019, Westpac Banking Corporation (WBCPK) – $1.269.

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Infomedia (IFM), Macquarie Group (MQG)

• Listing: Marimaca Copper Corp (13 March)

• Earnings: EBR Systems (EBR), Anteris Technologies (AVR)

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• None