Morning Wrap: ASX 200 set to rise as Trump tariff reprieve gives hope for more concessions

ASX 200 futures are down 79pts (-0.99%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• ASX set to bounce after two-session losing streak

• Local shares looking for fourth win in last 14 sessions

• Overnight rally came after Trump announced 1-month tariff delay for carmakers

Let's dive in.

Overnight Summary

Thu 06 Mar 25, 8:35am (AEST)

Name	Value	% Chg
Major Indices
S&P 500	5,843	+1.12%
Dow Jones	43,007	+1.14%
NASDAQ Comp	18,553	+1.46%
Russell 2000	2,099	+0.96%
Country Indices
Canada	24,871	+1.22%
China	3,342	+0.53%
Germany	23,081	+3.38%
Hong Kong	23,594	+2.84%
India	73,730	+1.01%
Japan	37,418	+0.23%
United Kingdom	8,756	-0.04%

Name	Value	% Chg
Commodities (USD)
Gold	2,931.6001	+0.16%
Iron Ore	101.61	+0.79%
Copper	4.813	+5.34%
WTI Oil	66.39	-2.84%
Currency
AUD/USD	0.6341	+1.44%
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin (USD)	90,328	+4.03%
Ethereum (AUD)	3,515	+4.30%
Miscellaneous
US 10 Yr T-bond	4.265	+1.31%
VIX	22.11	-5.97%

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 rallies from rallies from mid-session lows to close just off the highs (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks scored their first gain in three sessions, rallying from mid-session lows to close just off the highs

• Dow Jones up 1.1%, S&P 500 up 1.1%, Nasdaq up 1.5%

• Markets start pricing in lower earnings estimates from tariffs, uncertain growth (CNBC)

• Spiking correlations suggest market increasingly pricing in risk of further turbulence ahead (Bloomberg)

• Bankers losing hope for M&A rebound as uncertainty weighs on dealmaking (Bloomberg)

• Oil traders grapple with Trump tariffs as crude prices swing with administration's comments (Bloomberg)

• Global defence stocks surge as Europe and Asia ramp up military spending amid US policy shift (Bloomberg)

STOCKS

• Moderna expects to launch personalised cancer vaccine under development with Merck by 2027 (Bloomberg)

• Novo Nordisk to sell discounted Wegovy direct to customers (Bloomberg)

• UK regulators clear Microsoft's $13B investment in Open AI (FT)

• Apple challenges UK government's demand for iCloud encryption backdoor (FT)

• Disney to cut 200 jobs amid declining TV viewership and cost-saving efforts (Bloomberg)

• Goldman Sachs is planning on cutting 3-5% of workforce in annual performance review process (Reuters)

• Hong Kong firm to sell Panama Canal stake to BlackRock-backed group amid Trump pressure (Reuters)

• Adidas sees growth at high single-digit rate in 2025 (Reuters)

• Bayer sees improvement in 2026 after profit decline this year (Reuters)

• Geely secures €2.4B syndicated loan to refinance Volvo stake acquisition (Bloomberg)

GEOPOLITICS & TRADE

• Fed's latest Beige Book notes firms expect tariffs will cause them to raise prices

• Trump grants one-month delay of auto tariffs on Canada and Mexico (Bloomberg)

• Trudeau says Canada not open to lifting retaliatory tariffs if Trump leaves any tariffs in place (Bloomberg)

• China says it is ready for trade war and any other type of war with US (Axios)

• US stops providing intelligence to Ukraine to help target Russian forces (Bloomberg)

• Top aid of Zelensky says Ukraine negotiators will meet with US counterparts soon (Bloomberg)

• Germany's next government proposes massive spending on defence and infrastructure (FT, Reuters, France24)

• Trump administration prepares executive order to revitalise US shipbuilding and counter China's maritime dominance (link)

• US and Ukraine plan to sign minerals deal (Reuters); Zelensky says Ukraine remains committed to signing deal at any time (Politico)

• Arab leaders endorse Egyptian reconstruction plan for Gaza (Reuters)

• China toughens language on Taiwan reunification (Reuters)

CENTRAL BANKS

• BOJ Governor Ueda warns geopolitical tensions risk financial stability, capital outflow reversal (Reuters)

• RBA deputy governor cites trade war fears and slowing growth as drivers for recent rate cut (Investing.com)

ECONOMY

• Economists raise odds of recession as sentiment falls, tariff-related uncertainty rises (Bloomberg)

• Trump's tariffs raise stagflation fears as economists warn of weaker growth and higher prices (link)

• Car manufacturers warn of drastic price hikes on Trump tariffs (Reuters)

• Trump's trade war adds to headwinds confronting US economy (Reuters)

• Small US businesses face job losses and revenue decline amid economic strains and new tariff risks (Reuters)

• Eurozone final composite PMI confirms economy in stagnation (TradingEconomics)

• UK services firms cut staff at fastest pace since 2020 ahead of tax and minimum-wage hikes (Reuters)

• Japan firms stockpiling US inventory in bid to ease impact of Trump's tariffs (Bloomberg)

• Australian GDP growth in-line, supported by recovery in consumption (Bloomberg)

ASX TODAY

• Healthscope working with KordaMentha as it faces the possibility of voluntary administration - Australian Financial Review

• Fortescue and Plug Power pull the plug on green hydrogen partnership - The Australian

• West African Resources reports FY NPAT $246.2M vs expectations of $192.1M 

• Fisher & Paykel expands Auckland operations with $226 million facility to ramp up production.

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Can the bulls build any momentum after 5.5% slide for the ASX 200 since mid-February high?

• Energy stocks to come under pressure after Brent crude slipped to lowest in 3 years - below US$70

• Iron ore back below $US100 a tonne after Beijing stimulus package disappoints.

BROKER MOVES

• Judo Capital Holdings initiated Buy at Jarden; target $2.60.

• Macquarie Group initiated Underweight at Jarden; target $200.

• ResMed upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citi; target up to $44 from $41.

• Boss Energy initiated Positive at E&P; target $3.00.

• Paladin Energy initiated Negative at E&P; target $5.70.

Key events

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Thursday 6 March: Air New Zealand (AIZ) – $0.01, Atlas Pearls (ATP) – $0.01, AUB Group (AUB) – $0.25, Australian Finance Group (AFG) – $0.038, Australian Unity Office Fund (AOF) – $0.24, Beacon Lighting Group (BLX) – $0.041, BHP Group (BHP) – $0.785, Engenco (EGN) – $0.005, Freightways Group (FRW) – $0.171, G8 Education (GEM) – $0.035, GTN (GTN) – $0.025, Heartland Group (HGH) – $0.018, Integral Diagnostics (IDX) – $0.025, Jupiter Mines (JMS) – $0.007, Laserbond (LBL) – $0.004, Lovisa (LOV) – $0.50, Medibank Private (MPL) – $0.078, Meridian Energy (MEZ) – $0.054, Monadelphous Group (MND) – $0.33, Monash IVF Group (MVF) – $0.026, Mastermyne Group (MYE) – $0.005, Nib (NHF) – $0.13, Objective Corporation (OCL) – $0.09, Pinnacle Investment Management (PNI) – $0.33, Platinum Asia Investments (PAI) – $0.005, Platinum Capital (PMC) – $0.03, Platinum Asset Management (PTM) – $0.015, Praemium (PPS) – $0.01, Ramsay Health Care (RHC) – $0.40, Reliance Worldwide (RWC) – $0.04, Rio Tinto (RIO) – $3.536, Schaffer Corporation (SFC) – $0.45, Smartgroup (SIQ) – $0.31, Sky Network Television (SKT) – $0.076, South32 (S32) – $0.054, TPC Consolidated (TPC) – $0.20, TPG Telecom (TPG) – $0.09, Universal Store (UNI) – $0.22, Veem (VEE) – $0.002, Viva Energy (VEA) – $0.039, Wotso Property (WOT) – $0.01, Woodside Energy (WDS) – $0.831.

• Friday 7 March: Ampol (ALD) – $0.05, Aussie Broadband (ABB) – $0.04, Endeavour Group (EDV) – $0.125, PRL Global (PRG) – $0.02.

• Monday 10 March: Adairs (ADH) – $0.065, Blackwall (BWF) – $0.005, COG Financial Services (COG) – $0.03, Generation Development Group (GDG) – $0.01, Iress (IRE) – $0.10, Naos Ex-50 Opportunities (NAC) – $0.015, Naos Small Cap Opportunities (NSC) – $0.013, Nine Entertainment (NEC) – $0.035, Perseus Mining (PRU) – $0.025, Super Retail Group (SUL) – $0.32, Seven Group (SGH) – $0.30, CSL (CSL) – $2.073.

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Ansell (ANN)

• Listing: Siguiri Gold Corp (7 March), Marimaca Copper Corp (13 March)

• Earnings: Renascor Resources (RNU)

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• Australia – Balance of Trade at 11:30 AM 

• ECB - Interest Rate Decision at 12:15 AM (tonight) and Press Conference at 12:45 AM