Morning wrap: ASX 200 set to fall as Wall Street wobbles continue

In a nutshell:

• Nasdaq logs worst day in a month

• S&P 500 turns negative for 2025 ahead of inflation update

• Investors weigh Trump tariffs

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 lower, fading badly and closing on low (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks were lower as stocks ended near worst levels. S&P 500 and Nasdaq both on pace for worst week since September.

• US exceptionalism trade faltering amid weakening consumer, business indicators (Reuters)

• Investor sentiment around small-caps worse than it's been in months, executive sentiment sours too, BofA says (Bloomberg)

• JPMorgan's Benhamou says US stocks will struggle early March amid weaker economic data, but rally later in spring (Bloomberg)

• US hedge funds punt on turnaround in unloved China property sector (Reuters)

STOCKS

• Ebay slumped after first-quarter revenue guidance missed Wall Street expectations. 

• Rolls-Royce jumped sharply on the heels of better-than-expected full-year earnings 

• Microsoft pushing Trump administration to loosen and simplify new system that would restrict sales of US AI chips exports (WSJ)

• Salesforce revenue outlook underwhelms amid slower adoption of Agentforce platform (Reuters)

• DeepSeek rapidly adopted by Chinese state-owned enterprises, hospitals and local governments (FT)

• Trump administration weighs pulling funding for Moderna bird flu vaccine (Bloomberg)

• Nissan ready to replace CEO after collapse of Honda deal (Bloomberg)

• CoreWeave considering filing publicly for IPO in the US within a week, looking to raise $4B (Bloomberg)

• Mercedes-Benz plans job cuts in China amid competition (Bloomberg)

• Elliot said to be ramping up pressure on BP after its new strategy was not well received by investors (Bloomberg)

GEOPOLITICS & TRADE

• Trump creates uncertainty around 4-Mar tariff deadline for Canada and Mexico; floats EU tariffs (Bloomberg)

• Fed study finds China tariffs and end of de minimis exemption could have larger than expected economic impact (Bloomberg)

• China's steel exports under heightened pressure from Trump tariffs which threaten transshipment estimated at $7B (Reuters)

• EU trade chief intends to visit China amid growing tensions with Trump administration (SCMP)

• Ukraine sees US minerals deal as first step towards broader security arrangement (Politico)

• Critical minerals has become core to US foreign policy, with Trump turning to high pressure tactics to acquire them (NY Times)

• Trump declines to comment when asked whether US would protect Taiwan from Chinese invasion (Reuters)

• Trump's view of European allies raises alarm, sparking debate if its indifference or hostility to the EU (NY Times)

ECONOMY

• Trump's tariffs and spending cuts challenge the US economy (NY Times)

• Investors foresee sharpest divergence for three years between the US and Eurozone inflation (Reuters)

ASX TODAY

• Life360 reports FY net income ($4.6M) vs FactSet ($12.5M) 

• Fleetwood reports H1 underlying NPAT A$12.0M vs year-ago A$3.9M

• Lotus Resources reports H1 total comprehensive loss attributable (A$3.9M) vs year-ago (A$8.9M)

• PEXA Group reports H1 underlying NPATA (A$13.2M) vs year-ago A$15.0M, launches up to A$50M on-market share buyback

• Downer EDI awarded Field Services agreement from Chorus Limited valued at more than NZ$550M (~A$500M)

• Bellevue Gold reports H1 NPAT A$12.1M 

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• US markets faded badly into the close, threatening to undo yesterday’s bounce on the ASX 200, off 8200. 

• Gold also took a hit, down 1.5%, which could take the shine off the high-flying miners

• Oil plays might provide some relief, with crude up more than 2% overnight

BROKER MOVES

• Coles Group downgraded to Hold from Buy at Bell Potter; target up to $21.15 from $20.50. 

• Eagers Automotive downgraded to Hold from Buy at Bell Potter; target up to $15.25 from $13.65. 

• Eagers Automotive upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Citi; target up to $14.25 from $9.50.

• Eagers Automotive upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Macquarie; target up to $16.39 from $10.50. 

• Medibank Private downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies; target up to $4.80 from $4.40. 

• IDP Education downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman Sachs; target down to $11.10 from $19.

• Waypoint REIT upgraded to Outperform from Hold at CLSA; target down to $2.63 from $2.65. 

Key events 

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Fri 28 Feb: AMP (AMP) – $0.01, Australian United Investment Company (AUI) – $0.17, Carlton Investments (CIN) – $0.45, Centrepoint Alliance (CAF) – $0.013, Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals (CUV) – $0.07, Codan (CDA) – $0.125, Corporate Travel Management (CTD) – $0.10, Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure (DBI) – $0.056, Diversified United Investment (DUI) – $0.07, Embark Early Education (EVO) – $0.015, Fiducian Group (FID) – $0.219, Ingenia Communities Group (INA) – $0.052, Johns Lyng Group (JLG) – $0.025, Metrics Income Opportunities Trust (MOT) – $0.013, Metrics Master Income Trust (MXT) – $0.012, Metrics Real Estate Multi-Strategy Fund (MRE) – $0.008, Orora (ORA) – $0.05, Paragon Care (PGC) – $0.07, Pengana International Equities (PIA) – $0.014, Prime Financial Group (PFG) – $0.008.

• Monday 3 March: Apiam Animal Health (AHX) – $0.01, Aurizon (AZJ) – $0.092, Bell Financial Group (BFG) – $0.04, Big River Industries (BRI) – $0.02, Domino’s Pizza Enterprises (DMP) – $0.555, Evolution Mining (EVN) – $0.07, Eureka Group (EGH) – $0.007, FSA Group (FSA) – $0.035, Lynch Group (LGL) – $0.05, MyState (MYS) – $0.105, Newmont Corporation (NEM) – $0.275, Pacific Current Group (PAC) – $0.15, Pengana Global Private Credit Trust (PCX) – $0.012, Propel Funeral Partners (PFP) – $0.074, REDOX (RDX) – $0.06, Regal Partners (RPL) – $0.10, Sims (SGM) – $0.10, Steadfast Group (SDF) – $0.078, Switzer Dividend Growth Fund (SWTZ) – $0.009, WT Financial Group (WTL) – $0.002.

• Tuesday 4 March: Ashley Services Group (ASH) – $0.008, Capral (CAA) – $0.40, GR Engineering Services (GNG) – $0.10, Iluka Resources (ILU) – $0.04, Ironbark Capital (IBC) – $0.012, Nick Scali (NCK) – $0.30, Origin Energy (ORG) – $0.30, QUBE (QUB) – $0.041, REA Group (REA) – $1.10, Servcorp (SRV) – $0.14, Sims (SGM) – $0.10, Solvar (SVR) – $0.06, Worley (WOR) – $0.25.

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Abacus Group (ABG), Abacus Storage King (ASK), Aspen Group (APZ), Carindale Property Trust (CDP), Charter Hall Group (CHC), Charter Hall Retail REIT (CQR), Dexus (DXS), Elanor Commercial Property Fund (ECF), GDI Property Group (GDI), GPT Group (GPT), Growthpoint Properties Australia (GOZ), Scentre Group (SCG), and Stockland Corp (SGP).

• Listing: Stormeur Ltd (3 March), Dominion Income Trust (4 March), MA Credit Income Trust (5 March), Siguiri Gold Corp (7 March)

• Earnings: Australian Finance Group (AFG), Endeavour Group (EDV), Fleetwood (FWD), Generation Development Group (GDG), Jupiter Mines (JMS), Kina Securities (KSL), PEXA Group (PXA), RAM Essential Services Property Fund (REP), Sayona Mining (SYA), Star Entertainment Group (SGR), and TPG Telecom (TPG).

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• France's Inflation Rate YoY for February will be released at 6:45 PM AEDT 

• Italy’s Inflation Rate YoY (preliminary) for February at 9:00 PM AEDT. 

• Core PCE Price Index MoM, Personal Income MoM and Personal Spending MoM for the US will be released at 12:30 AM AEDT