Morning Wrap: ASX 200 futures flat, US markets mixed + Gold, iron ore and lithium miners to rise

ASX 200 futures are trading 6 points lower, down 0.07%, as of 8:30 am AEDT.

Markets took a defensive tilt overnight amid continued ramp in geopolitical concerns in Ukraine/Russia, Nvidia due to report earnings tomorrow and the market is expecting Q3 revenue to grow 83% year-on-year, Chinese lithium stocks surge on mine closure rumours and Amcor makes a massive $13bn buyout of Berry Group.

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 higher, recouped early losses (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks finished mostly higher after a weak open

• Equal-weight S&P 500 finished red, underperformed the official benchmark by almost 70 bps

• Markets started on the defensive ahead of key upcoming catalysts (Nvidia earnings, Trump personnel clarity, jobs data) and ramp in geopolitical concerns (Ukraine making first strike on Russian soil and Putin's expanded nuclear doctrine)

• US equity positioning has not yet hit YTD highs and the 4-week change in positioning has remained moderate, according to JPMorgan

• AAII bull-bear spread jumped 7.5 pp to 21.5%, the highest in a month but still 8 pp below peak levels of the year seen back in July 

• Risk-aversion ramps up after warning from Russia that it has updated nuclear doctrine (RT)

• Goldman Sachs' Kostin sees S&P 500 surging to 6500 by end of 2025 (BBG)

• S&P sees some signs of a US credit bubble as tight spreads could be hiding borrowing costs, debt loads (BBG)

• Long end of the curve extends selloff, 30Y yield hits highest rate since May (BBG)

• T. Rowe Price anticipating pressure on yields from higher inflation, rising Treasury volatility (BBG)

• Nvidia options market implies 8.5% swing, or $300bn in market value, following earnings (RT)

• Investors betting Japanese yen slide will force a hawkish shift at the BOJ, expecting rate hike next month (RT)

STOCKS

• Walmart shares rally 3% after Q3 earnings beat, US comps (ex-fuel) up 5.3% or 150 bps ahead of consensus, raised FY sales, operating income and EPS guidance (RT)

• Walmart CFO says new tariffs could force the company to raise prices on some items (CNBC)

• Alphabet's Chrome browser could go for as much as $20 billion if forced into sale (BBG)

• Super Micro files compliance plan with Nasdaq to avoid delisting (BBG)

• Corporate insiders benefit from post-election US stock market surge (FT)

CENTRAL BANKS

• BOJ expected to say farewell to stimulus era, justify rate hikes in policy review (RT)

• RBA weighs different scenarios that would warrant change in policy settings (BBG)

POLITICS & GEOPOLITICS

• Trump confirms deportation strategy will include national emergency and military (LAT)

• Putin pushes ahead with update Russia's nuclear doctrine to expand conditions for atomic weapons use (BBG)

• US steps up efforts to clinch a cease-fire between Hezbollah and Israel in Lebanon (BBG)

• Iran agrees to stop producing near-weapons grade uranium (BBG)

• Russia-Ukraine war poised for escalation after Ukraine carries out first long-range strike inside Russia (BBG)

ECONOMY

• Beijing and Shanghai announce tax breaks to spur home purchases in confidence boost (RT)

• China accelerating efforts to boost domestic production of semiconductors (NIK)

ASX TODAY

• Afterpay’s BNPL now available on Google Pay, Block shares finished 2.3% higher overnight (PD)

• Amcor to acquire Berry Global Group in all-stock transaction, Berry holders will receive 7.25 Amcor shares for each Berry share, resulting in Amcor and Berry holders owning approximately 63:37 of the combined company, acquisition will be over 35% EPS accretive with higher expected earnings growth and $650m in synergies expected by the end of third year (AMC)

• Nick Scali says containers have been delayed, adds to risks of achieving 1H25 ANZ NPAT guidance of $30-33m (NCK)

• Paladin Energy’s acquisition of Fission Uranium has received a notice from Canada’s Minister of Innovation, Science and Industry, extending national security review period until 30-Dec (PDN)

• Webjet Group delays release of 1H25 results due to significant complexities of demerger, expects to lodge its half-year result no later than 29-Nov (WJL)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Gold – Gold price up 2.6% in the last two sessions. Overnight strength underpinned by continued ramp up in Ukraine/Russia geopolitical concerns. Gold Miners ETF (GDX) up 2.3% overnight but still ~14% off 22-Oct highs.

• Lithium – Local lithium stocks sold off sharply on Tuesday (PLS -5.1%, LTR -4.1%) but Chinese lithium carbonate futures surged after market close, with Ganfeng up 13.2%. I'm still trying to get to the bottom of things rallied.

• Materials – A small uptick for several China-related commodities including copper, iron ore and aluminium. Seeing a few incremental stimulus announcements from China, including tax breaks to spur home purchases and Guangzhou started to acquire unsold homes.

BROKER MOVES

• ALS downgraded to Neutral from Overweight; but target up to $14.40 from $14.25 (JARD)

• FleetPartners upgraded to Buy from Accumulate; target up to $3.60 from $3.50 (ORD)

• Newmont upgraded to Overweight from Neutral; but target cut to $72.50 from $74 (JPM)

• Technology One downgraded to Neutral from Outperform; target up to $27.90 from $22.20 (MQG)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Wed 20 Nov: Amcor (AMC) – 1.22%, Embark Early Education (EVO) – 1.85%, Infratil (IFT) – 0.51%, Wam Global (WGB) – 2.62%

• Thu 21 Nov: Terracom (TER) – 4.76%

• Fri 22 Nov: N1 Holdings (N1H) – 2.36%, Orica (ORI) – 1.53%, Wam Strategic Value (WAR) – 0.87%

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Hotel Property Investments (HPI) 

• Listing: None

• Earnings: Web Travel Group (WEB)

• AGMs: Boss Energy (BOE), Charter Hall (CHC), Downer EDI (DOW), Northern Star (NST)

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 9:50 am: Japan Balance of Trade (Oct)

• 5:00 pm: UK Inflation (Oct)