Morning Wrap: ASX 200 futures flat, S&P 500 snaps seven day win streak, Aluminium stocks set to rally

 ASX 200 futures are down 1pt (-0.01%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks lower, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 easing from Tuesday's record setting session

• Gold continued to push higher, closing just below US$4,000, copper also posted solid gains and above US$5.0/lb

• AI bubble fears on the rise amid circularity, ROI, energy requirements and valuation concerns, Oracle reportedly losing millions on Blackwell rentals

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 lower, off worst levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks lower despite a brief positive open, closed slightly off worst levels

• S&P 500 snapped a seven day win streak, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 also easing off Tuesday’s record close

• Today’s big story: AI theme facing some scrutiny, notably bubble, finance circularity, energy requirements and productivity concerns, a report from The Information flagged hefty losses from Oracle’s Blackwell rentals

• S&P 500 to hit 7,750 next year, with 30% chance of reaching 9,000, says Evercore ISI (AX)

• AI bubble fears soar as circle of companies and investments tightens (NBC)

• JP Morgan's Dimon says AI expenditures result in same amount of savings (BBG)

• Treasury market volatility at a four-year low due to the US government shutdown's data delays (BBG)

• Japan 30Y bond auction draws stronger demand following pickup in concerns about debt-funded stimulus (BBG)

• Emerging markets' 28% gain in 2025 outpaces developed markets, investors lured by weaker dollar and cheap valuations (FT)

STOCKS

• Oracle shares slip 2.5% after reports the company lost nearly US$100m from rentals of Nvidia’s Blackwell chips in the August quarter (TI)

• Tesla plans to launch a cheaper Model Y, using fewer premium materials to offset lost US EV incentives (BBG)

• OpenAI aims to evolve ChatGPT into an operating system, following strategies of major tech companies (AX)

• Johnson & Johnson hit with a $966m judgment in an LA talc case (RT)

• US utilities expect more than $1.1tn in power-grid investments over the next five years to address increased strain due to data centres (BBG)

• BMW cuts guidance despite strong US and EU sales, forecasts weak demand in China (WSJ)

• A fire at Novelis's Oswego plant, supplying 40% of US auto aluminum, will disrupt automakers like Ford for months (WSJ)

• Novo Nordisk lays off dozens at its Carolina plant as part of a 9,000 global job cut (RT)

TARIFFS

• Trump says relations with PM Carney have come a long way, expects countries will resolve trade issues (BBG)

• Canada's trade deficit widened in August to second-highest ever, economists blame trade-related headwinds (WSJ)

• EU announces it will double tariffs on steel to 50%, says proposal is a "stepping stone" to a better deal with the US (POL)

• Trump announces 10% US stake in Trilogy Metals and approves a mining road permit in Alaska (AX)

• White House converting federal grants into equity stakes to secure US supply chains for critical minerals, chips (BBG)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Fed Miran reiterated lower-than-consensus inflation forecast and that additional restrictiveness in monetary policy may be a risk going forward (BBG)

• Kansas City Fed's Schmid signals reluctance to cut interest rates further, emphasizing inflation risks (RT)

• Takaichi economic adviser says October rate hike too soon for BoJ (BBG)

• Economists divided on whether RBNZ will cut by 25 bp or 50 bp amid economic slump (BBG)

US GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN

• Senate rejects competing proposals to reopen government, prolonging shutdown (POL)

• Trump open to deal with Democrats on healthcare subsidy extensions during government shutdown (POL)

• Military pay date on 15-Oct seen as potential event that could drive compromise between Republicans and Democrats to fund government (CNBC)

ECONOMY

• Carlyle Group estimates just 17,000 jobs were created in September, below the ~54,000 consensus for September nonfarm payrolls (BBG)

• World Bank raises China's 2025 growth forecast to 4.8%, benefiting from government support despite ongoing US tariffs (CNBC)

• Australian consumer confidence slides as rising inflation dims rate cut hopes (BBG)

ASX TODAY

• Black Cat Syndicate reports commencement of mining at Fingals, first ore scheduled for October (BC8)

• Carma IPO pegged at $242-316m, roadshow underway (AFR)

• Catalyst Metals reports Q1 gold production of 17,600 oz, which is 2,000 oz below expectations due to lower availability of the crushing circuit, reaffirms FY26 guidance of 100-110koz (CYL)

• James Hardie guides Q2 adjusted EBITDA of $326-331m and EPS of 26-27 cents vs. consensus of $277.5m and 17 cents respectively, “Siding & Trim” business exceeding expectations, AZEK integration remains on-track, management see clear opportunity in Deck, Rail and Accessories (JHX)

• Perth stockbroker Argonaut Securities posts record revenue (AFR) 

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Pullback: Most of our overnight ETFs down 1-2%, though defensive sectors like Staples, Utilities and Financials managed to finish green (and likely why ASX futures are flat). Things are looking a little dicey out there as US shutdown drags on, slight resurgence in bond yields and rising bubble concerns.

• Aluminium: Headline above about a fire at Novelis's Oswego plant. Aluminium prices rose 1.0% overnight to US$2,710 a tonne, the highest since May 2024. Alcoa shares also rallied 5.1% to a near year-to-date high.

BROKER MOVES

Broker data is currently pending.

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Wed 8 Oct: Clime Capital (CAM) – $0.014, MFF Capital Investments (MFF) – $0.09, Naos Emerging Opportunities (NCC) – $0.02, Vulcan Steel (VSL) – $0.032

• Thu 9 Oct: Clime Investment Management (CIW) – $0.005, Duxton Water (D2O) – $0.037

• Fri 10 Oct: None

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Australian Finance Group (AFG), Brambles (BXB), IPD Group (IPG), New Hope Corp (NHC), NRW Holdings (NWH), Solvar (SVR), Southern Cross Electrical Engineering (SXE), Ventia Services Group (VNT), Wagners Holding Co (WGN)

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: Green & Gold Minerals (GG1) at 11:00 am

• AGMs: Transurban (TCL)

Economic calendar (AEST):

No major economic announcements.