Morning Wrap: ASX 200 futures flat, Dow snaps 4-day win streak + Charts of the Week

Major US benchmarks were mixed in very quiet overnight trading, oil prices tumbled almost 5% to levels not seen since July, Walmart earnings came out slightly ahead of expectations but management flagged that recent data is causing them to rethink the state of the consumer, the US and China are working to stabilise relationships and Charts of the Week!

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 edges out another gain, closed near best levels (Source: TradingView)

MARKETS

• S&P 500 edges out another gain, finished near best levels

• US 2-and-10 year bond yields ease, back near Wednesday lows

• Relatively uneventful and quiet session

• S&P 500 rally sputters with Index near key technical levels (Bloomberg)

• Oil plunges to July low as algorithms amplify supply-driven drop (Bloomberg)

• BlackRock officially filed for a spot Ethereum ETF on Friday (Reuters)

STOCKS

• Cisco's sales miss expectations amid new order slowdown (Bloomberg)

• Palo Alto Networks misses on billings estimate (Bloomberg)

• Burberry slumps as luxury demand slows (CNBC)

• Walmart CEO says food deflation may be on the horizon (CNN)

• Amazon to launch online car sales next year(Bloomberg)

KEY EARNINGS

Walmart (-8.1%): Double beat but shares sold off on downbeat outlook.  

• "Halloween was good overall. But in the last couple of weeks of October, there were certainly some trends in the business that made us pause and kind of rethink the health of the consumer … We are more cautious on the consumer than we were 90 days ago at this time.” – CFO John Rainey 

• "The pockets of disinflation we are seeing are helping … in the US, we may be managing through a period of deflation in the months to come." – Doug McMillon

Cisco (-9.9%): Double beat but sold off on guidance downgrade. First quarter revenue up 8% year-on-year to US$14.7bn, guided to US$12.6-12.8bn in revenue for the next quarter vs. analyst expectations of US$14.2bn.

• "Cisco saw a slowdown of new product orders in 1Q24 and believes the primary reason is that customers are currently focused on installing and implementing products in their environments."

CENTRAL BANKS

• Fed's Daly says recent data shows deceleration in inflation (FT)

• Fed’s Mester says she hasn’t decide on another rate hike (Bloomberg)

• BoE likely to cut rates in spring 2024 after inflation falls (London Times)

GEOPOLITICS

• Biden and Xi agree to restore military talks and combat fentanyl (FT)

• Biden says has not changed view that Xi is a dictator (Reuters)

• Xi tells American executives he wants friendly relations with US (Bloomberg)

• Hamas tentatively agrees to deal to free ~50 hostages in exchange for 3-5 day pause in fighting (Washington Post)

• White House energy adviser says US will enforce sanctions against Iran (Bloomberg)

ECONOMY

• US continuing jobless claims rise to highest in almost two years (Bloomberg)

• Japan export growth slows amid lull in global demand (Reuters)

• Japan GDP contraction poses setback for early BOJ policy normalization (Nikkei)

• China house price declines accelerates as sentiment remains weak (Reuters)

• Australian employment higher than expected, but jobless rate ticks up (Reuters)

• Goldman Sachs argues only unforeseen shock event is likely to cause recession (CNBC)

• JPMorgan says "we look for momentum to slow further into 2024 as growth slips below trend and the economy walks a fine line between expansion and contraction."

Charts of the Week

This segment of the morning wrap brings you weekly technical commentary on the ASX 200 and some of the more interesting charts in the market. These are not meant as recommendations. They are for illustrative purposes only. Any discussion of past performance is for educational purposes only. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future return. Always do your own research.

ASX 200 – Back in the range

ASX 200 daily chart (Source: Commsec)

The ASX200 has bounced since the last update but let’s not get too excited. The index simply finds itself back within the recent, broad range having dipped below the lower end at 6900. I’m not sure what is worse, a sharp breakdown and wash out, or a lifeless, listless index that continues to grind sideways. Hopefully there are some decent opportunities at a stock level – although I wouldn’t hold my breath.

Deterra Royalties (DRR) – Royal Stacks

Deterra Royalties daily chart (Source: Commsec)

As expected, it was pretty slim pickings in terms of stocks that meet the scan criteria this morning, but DRR is a standout. The recent rally has seen the price action break above the $5 round number, whilst average volume has been picking up since June. The stock is now trading in clean air and appears to have solid momentum.

ProMedicus (PME) – Defying the naysayers

ProMedicus daily chart (Source: Commsec)

Some of you might know that I used to be an equity analyst and fund manager before I came to work at Livewire and Market Index, and I have liked PME since it was about $10. If I had $1 for every time someone told me this stock was overvalued I’d be rich –but still not as rich as buying PME at :). Now, it might be overvalued on the traditional valuation metrics but those who know the story and technical traders who follow the trend, simply don’t care. Why would they? The price action has broken out once again, pushing above the $85 level and moving into clean air. Can it reach $100? Well, I guess it depends on who you ask.

ASX corporate actions occurring today:

• Trading ex-div: Washington H Soul Pattinson (SOL) – $0.51

• Dividends paid: Bank of Queensland (BOQ) – $0.21, Invocare (IVC) – $0.60, Myer (MYR) – $0.01

• Listing: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 6:00 pm: UK Retail Sales

• 12:00 am: US Building Permits