Morning Wrap: ASX 200 futures flat, Dow logs record close + BHP, Woodside and Zip earnings

Major US benchmarks finished mixed overnight as the market looks ahead to Nvidia earnings and more inflation data, gold marks a record close, US July durable goods orders surprises to the upside and another massive day for corporate earnings. Also note that we're simplifying some of the links (e.g. Bloomberg = BBG, Reuters = RT etc.)

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 lower, finished off worst levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks were mostly lower overnight but finished off worst levels

• Equal-weight S&P 500 outperformed the official benchmark by 30 bps, closing just shy of breakeven with positive breadth

• Very quiet overnight session with no real catalysts, the key focus remains Nvidia earnings on Thursday and ongoing debate between 25 vs 50 bp rate cuts

• Gold prices closed at record levels, Oil prices soared on latest flare-up in Middle East tensions and Libya production headlines

• Goldman Sachs says systematic buying and corporate buyback will push S&P 500 to new highs this week (BBG)

• Traders ditch US dollar, prefer commodities and Australian dollar ahead of telegraphed Fed easing (AFR)

• Middle East tensions keep oil prices elevated, analysts warn of further risks (CNBC)

• Oil surges as dual headlines around Israel-Hezbollah and Libya oil production halt raise disruption fears (BBG)

STOCKS

• IBM shutting key research division in China, impacting more than 1,000 jobs (BBG)

• Apple announces iPhone event scheduled for September 9 where it's expected to reveal new phone and watch models (CNBC)

• Canada slaps 100% tariff on imports of Chinese EVs (CNBC)

• Exxon Mobil forecasts global oil demand in 2050 will be at current levels (BBG)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Fed's Barkin says 'low-hiring, low-firing' approach by US firms may lead to larger-scale layoffs (RT)

• Fed's Daly echoes Powell and says the time to adjust policy is upon us (BBG)

• ECB's Lane says 2% inflation target not yet secure, rates to stay restrictive (FT)

• PBOC leaves MLF rate unchanged following July cut (BBG)

• PBOC Pan to push supportive monetary policy as financial risks ease (SCMP)

POLITICS & GEOPOLITICS

• Israel, Hezbollah signal desire to avoid wider Middle East conflict following weekend bombardments (WSJ)

• China condemns US export controls, vows to protect Chinese firms (CNBC)

• China and Philippines clash in South China Sea again despite efforts at trust-building (RT)

ECONOMY

• US July durable goods orders up 9.9% month-on-month vs. 5.0% consensus, sharp increase driven by uptick in transportation equipment orders (RT)

• German business outlook stagnates at low level, signals economic crisis (BBG)

ASX TODAY

• Paladin and Fission merger lacking sufficient support from Fission shareholders (PDN)

• MinRes M&A speculation with Japan’s Mitsui around WA oil and gas (The Aus)

• Santos’ Bayu Undan gas project ownership at risk, Timor-Leste government is seeking a stake of more than 10% for no payment (SMH)

• Yancoal Non-Executive Director Geoffrey Raby purchases 23,000 shares (YAL)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

The ASX 200 is set to open flat after a relatively uneventful overnight session. Most of the overnight ETFs we track finished between +/-1%. Lots of big earnings today. Some of the key reporters include:

• BHP: Goldman Sachs (15-Aug) is forecasting FY24 underlying EBITDA of US$28.8bn, EPS of 258 US cents and a total dividend of 142 US cents per share (55% payout ratio).

• Lovisa: Macquarie (5-Jun) is forecasting FY24 revenue of $715m, EBITDA of $225.8m, underlying NPAT of $84.5m and a total dividend of 74.3 cents per share.

• Woodside: Macquarie (23-Aug) is expecting FY24 adjusted profit of US$3.56bn, EPS of A$2.83 and a total dividend of 112 US cents per share.

• Zip: Citi (17-Jul) is forecasting FY24 EBITDA (adjusted) of $55.5m and a reported net profit of $41.6m. The analyst want to see cash EBTDA tracking towards $125m in FY25.

BROKER MOVES

• Bendigo Bank downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight; target cut to $11.90 from $12.20 (MS)

• Kogan upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform; target remains $6 (RBC)

• NIB Holdings upgraded to Buy from Hold; target cut to $7.50 from $7.65 (JEF) 

• NIB Holdings downgraded to Neutral from Buy; target cut to $6.55 from $8.60 Citi)

• Objective Corp upgraded to Buy from Neutral; target up to $15 from $14 (UBS)

• Polynovo upgraded to Buy from Hold; target up to $3 from $2.52 (BP)

• Ramelius downgraded to Neutral from Outperform; target up to $2.20 from $2.10 (MQG)

• Viva Energy Group upgraded to Buy from Neutral; target $3.60 (GS)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Tue 27 Aug: Coronado Global (CRN) – $0.005, AGL Energy (AGL) – $0.35, Contract Energy (CEN) – $0.206, AGL Energy (AGL) – $0.35, Deterra Royalties (DRR) – $0.144, Humm (HUM) – $0.013, HMC Capital (HMC) – $0.06, Redox (RDX) – $0.065, IPH (IPH) – $0.19, MA Financial (MAF) – $0.06, BSP Financial (BFL) – $0.146

• Wed 28 Aug: Apiam Animal Health (AHX) – $0.01, Fiducian Group (FID) – $0.211, Telstra (TLS) – $0.09, Treasury Wine (TWE) – $0.19, Bell Financial Group (BFG) – $0.04, Ooh!Media (OML) – $0.018, The Lottery Corp (TLC) – $0.105, Maxiparts (MXI) – $0.026, Mitchell Services (MSV) – $0.02

• Thu 29 Aug: REA Group (REA) – $1.02, Beach Energy (BPT) – $0.02, Evolution Mining (EVN) – $0.05, Ventia Services (VNT) – $0.09, Ebos Group (EBO) – $0.497, Bapcor (BAP) – $0.055, Corporate Travel (CTD) – $0.12, Insurance Australia (IAG) – $0.17, Jumbo Interactive  (JIN) – $0.275 

• Fri 30 Aug: Orora (ORA) – $0.05, Hitech Group (HIT) – $0.05, Ampol (ALD) – $0.60, Carlton Investments (CIN) – $0.63, Big River (BRI) – $0.02 

• Mon 2 Sep: Pinnacle Investment Management (PNI) – $0.264, Integrated Research (IRI) – $0.02, Prime Financial Group (PFG) – $0.009, EQT (EQT) – $0.53, GR Engineering Services (GNG) – $0.10, Arn Media (A1N) – $0.012

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Metcash (MTS) – $0.085

• Listing: None  

• Earnings: 29Metals (29M), Austin Engineering (ANG), BHP (BHP), Chrysos Corp (C79), Cooper Energy (COE), Calix (CXL), DGL Group (DGL), Droneshield (DRO), Dimerix (DXB), Electro Optic Systems (EOS), Helloworld (HLO), Integral Diagnostics (IDX), Johns Lyng Group (JLG), Lovisa (LOV), Nanosonics (NAN), Neuren Pharma (NEU), Propel Funeral Partners (PFP), PYC Therapeutics (PYC), Qoria (QOR), Red5 (RED), SG Fleet Group (SGF), Vulcan Steel (VSL), Woodside (WDS), Worley (WOR), Zip (ZIP)

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

No major economic announcements.