Morning Wrap: ASX 200 futures flat, CBA earnings beat estimates, Computershare lifts guidance

ASX 200 futures are up 2pts (+0.02%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• A relatively quiet overnight session with no major directional drivers for US markets

• Markets await further updates from Trump and tonight's US CPI report

• Commonwealth 1H25 results beat consensus by 1-2%, Computershare tops 1H25 expectations and raises its full-year guidance

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 finished around breakeven (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• US stocks were mixed as Tech and Discretionary weakness was offset by strength in most other sectors, notably Staples and Energy

• Relatively quiet session as the market waits for more clarity around Trump tariffs and US inflation data tonight

• January CPI report comes after recent mixed data points on inflation expectations and Trump headwinds

• Trump trades start to crack as investors take more bearish view on Trump administration tariff policies (FT)

STOCKS

• Consumer data giant NielsenIQ working with JPMorgan to raise $1.25bn for potential IPO (BBG)

• Apple partnering with Alibaba on AI features for iPhone in China (RT)

• Ford CEO Farley to warn Congress of devastating impact of tariffs on US auto industry (BBG)

• OpenAI’s Sam Altman knocks back buyout bid from Musk-led group ( AX)

• Elliot Investment says its built a more than $2.5bn stake in Phillips 66 and plans to push it to consider operational changes (WSJ)

• Kering earnings hit by Gucci Q4 sales declining 24% but CFO flags improvement in Chinese, US demand (RT)

• BP Q4 profit hits four-year low; company promises to reset strategy (RT)

• Coca-Cola shares soar on Q4 earnings beat, net sales rose 6% for the quarter fueled by rising demand for drinks (CNBC) 

CENTRAL BANKS

• Fed Chair Powell reiterated prior statements on the US economy, says Fed does not need to be in a hurry to cut rates as inflation remains elevated (FED)

• Fed officials wary about getting through turn-of-the-year price resets, which contributed to big inflation jumps in recent years (WSJ)

• Majority of economists expect Fed rate cut by end-June with plurality now predicting it will come in Q2 (RT)

• BoE's Mann calls for aggressive rate cuts amid weakening demand (FT)

TRUMP

• Trump orders 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum, reciprocal tariffs coming (BBG)

• Trump may exempt Australia from steel and aluminum tariffs (RT)

• Europe says will respond to Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs with countermeasures (BBG)

• India and Thailand among countries most exposed to Trump's reciprocal tariffs (BBG)

• Trump says Israel should cancel Gaza ceasefire if hostages are not returned (AX)

ECONOMY

• Australian consumer confidence climbed almost back to its long-run average but recovery stalling amid ongoing cost of living pressures (BBG)

• Australia business confidence improves in January while business conditions eased on softening profits and sales (RT)

ASX TODAY

• Amotiv 1H25 NPATA down 1.0% to $58.9m vs. $58.4m consensus, growth in revenue and earnings expected in FY25, driven by strong H2 skew (AOV)

• Commonwealth Bank 1H25 NPAT growth of 2% to $5.13bn vs. $5.08bn consensus (0.98% beat), raises interim dividend by 5% to $2.25 (CBA)

• Computershare 1H25 NPAT growth of 15.9% to $383.6m vs. $358.3m consensus (7.1% beat), upgrades full-year guidance (CPU)

• Imdex 1H25 NPATA down 19.2% to $26.5m vs. $26.4m consensus, interim dividend unchanged at 1.5c which is in-line with consensus (IMD)

• Perpetual and KKR remain keen to explore whether a potential deal is worth saving, Board has made some concessions around a rejigged proposal from KKR (AFR)

• St Barbara intends to separate Atlantic Gold Operations via sale, vend-in or demerger (SBM)

• Suncorp reports 1H25 cash earnings of $860m vs. pcp $660m, declares relatively in-line interim dividend of 41 cents plus special dividend of 22 cents per share (SUN)

• Telix’s Illuccix approved by Danish Medicines Agency (TLX)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Computershare – Massive 1H25 beat, with all key metrics running 2-7% ahead of market expectations. FY25 EPS guidance upgrade represents a 7.1% upgrade vs. prior guidance. Taking a closer look at Morgan Stanley’s estimates, interim dividend 43c vs. 45c ests (4.6% beat) and FY25 EPS of 135c vs. 128.6c (4.9% beat). This sets CPU up for a very strong session

• Commonwealth Bank – A decent result, with most key metrics (NPAT, dividend and NIM) running 1-2% ahead of consensus. CET1 ratio was slightly soft and some analysts like Morgan Stanley expected a slightly higher dividend.

• Copper – Copper prices experienced a 2.0% pullback overnight, driving the Copper Miners ETF (COPX) 3.0% lower.

BROKER MOVES

• Ansell downgraded to Hold from Buy; but target up to $42 from $39 (JEF)

• Breville upgraded to Hold from Underperform; target is $38.45 (CLSA)

• Computershare upgraded to Outperform from Hold; target up to $38.70 from $30.70 (CLSA)

• Dicker Data upgraded to Overweight from Equal-weight; target up to $10.10 from $9.50 (MS)

• Region Group downgraded to Neutral from Buy; target cut to $2.30 from $2.63 (UBS)

• SGH upgraded to Buy from Hold; target up to $61 from $41.30 (JEF)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Tue 11 Feb: None

• Wed 12 Feb: ResMed (RMD) – $0.06

• Thu 13 Feb: Korvest (KOV) – $0.25, Plato Income Maximiser (PL8) – $0.006, Scentre Group (SCG) – $0.086

• Fri 14 Feb: Ansell (ANN) – $0.353

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: None

• Listing: None

• Earnings: AGL Energy (AGL), Amotiv (AOV), Arena REIT (ARF), Bravura Solutions (BVS), Commonwealth Bank (CBA), Computershare (CPU), Imdex (IMD), NRW Holdings (NWH), Suncorp (SUN)

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 10:30 am: Australia Home Loans Growth (Q4)

• 11:30 pm: US Inflation Rate (Jan)