Morning Wrap: ASX 200 flat, S&P 500 snaps 5-day win streak + Nvidia smashes Q3 earnings

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq snap a 5-day win streak as Fed minutes indicate policy must stay restrictive, US retailers including Lowe's and Dick's Sporting Good report a bigger than expected drop in sales, Nvidia smashes Q3 revenue expectations by US$2 billion, Bank of America says the S&P 500 is going to hit 5,000 next year and iron ore stocks are soaring (but is it on hype or fundamentals).

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 lower amid a relatively calm pullback (Source: TradingView)

MARKETS

• S&P 500 lower, finished off session lows of -0.48%

• S&P 500 snaps 5-day winning streak

• Nvidia set to release earnings after hours, expectations extremely high

• Relatively uneventful session with yields and US dollar slightly lower

• Fed minutes note cautious approach, do not rule out further hikes (Reuters)

• Bank of America expects S&P 500 to hit 5,000 in 2024 (Bloomberg)

• Nasdaq hits 22-month high on peak Fed hopes, AI enthusiasm (Bloomberg)

• Treasury 20-year bond auction sees reasonable demand (Bloomberg)

• Uranium price hit US$80 a pound for first time in 15 years (Bloomberg)

STOCKS

• Nvidia investors weigh potential risks from US's China chip rules (FT)

• Amazon’s Jeff Bezos expected to be ‘aggressive’ in selling more shares (CNBC)

• Novo Nordisk expects shortages of Ozempic to continue in Europe (Bloomberg)

• Microsoft promises departing OpenAI employees same compensation (CNBC)

• Lowe's sees steeper drop in annual sales as DIY demand stumbles (Reuters)

• Best Buy sees steeper decline in annual comparable sales (Reuters)

NVIDIA

"Nvidia earnings will be the most important catalyst for the tape this week. It feels like expectations are very high here with buyside revenues above $17bn for quarter," said UBS analysts.

• Q3 revenues up 205% year-on-year to US$18.1bn vs. consensus expectations of $16.1bn

• Q3 data centre revenues up 278% to US$14.5bn vs. $12.8bn expected

• Q3 earnings per share up 593% to $4.02 vs. $3.37 expected

• Q4 revenue guidance of $20bn vs. $17.8bn expected

• In summary: Free cash flows was softer than expected. Everything else was a beat. Management warned China sales to decline significantly in the fourth quarter.

CENTRAL BANKS

• Fed's Barkin positive on recent inflation signals but warns it is stubborn (Bloomberg)

• NY Fed survey shows US demand for new credit down in 2023 (Reuters)

• ECB's Villeroy says rates probably at a plateau or a few quarters (Bloomberg)

• BoE signals rates must stay high in spite of fall in inflation (FT)

• RBA concerned elevated inflation will spur rise in inflation expectations (Bloomberg)

CHINA

• China property stocks rally as authorities compile list of firms for support (Bloomberg)

• China pushes state banks to accelerate funding to support property developers (FT)

• Chinese yuan rises above daily reference rate for first time since July (Bloomberg)

• China stock purchases by overseas investors set to hit eight-year low (FT)

ECONOMY

• US existing home sales slump to more than 13-year lows (Reuters)

• US retail sales growth seen at 5-year low over year-end shopping season (Nikkei)

• German budget crisis deepens with freeze on this year's finances (Bloomberg, Reuters)

• ECB report warns CRE hits could worsen economic stress (Bloomberg)

• South Korea exports rise in first 20 days of November (Yonhap)

Fed Minutes in a Nutshell

FOMC minutes can often be a tricky one as they are released ~3 weeks from the actual meeting. In summary, officials said:

• Rates to remain "restrictive for some time" amid upside risks to inflation

• Demand and supply coming into better balance

• Need to see more evidence that inflationary pressures were abating

• Data on consumer spending had again surprised to the upside

• Everyone agreed to proceed carefully

The cooler-than-expected inflation and producer price index were released after the Fed meeting and financial conditions have also eased significantly.

About four months ago, the market was expecting three more rate hikes in 2023. Now, the market expects no more hikes and rate cuts beginning May 2024.

Bank of America: S&P 500 at 5,000

Could BofA's bullish call mark a top for markets? Here are the key takeaways from its 'five reasons for S&P 500 at 5000' report:

• "We are past maximum macro uncertainty. The market has absorbed significant geopolitical shocks already and the good news is we're talking about the bad news."

• "We're bullish not because we expect the Fed to cut but because of what the Fed has accomplished. Companies have adapted to higher rates and inflation."

• "Pension equity weights are at 25 year lows, sell-side market targets are mostly underwater, consensus long-term earnings growth for the S&P 500 is at its lows and active funds are hugging their benchmarks. Bull markets typically end with high conviction and euphoria - We are far from that."

• "A survey of BofA analysts 2024 views reveal broad expectations for i) decelerating but not declining prices, ii) higher margins, where iii) continued wage inflation are offset by iv) efficiency gains and v) falling costs elsewhere."

• "S&P 500 profits had their recession and we forecast 6% year-on-year growth in 2024 EPS despite slowing GDP ... accelerating EPS and decelerating GDP have been the best environment for stocks since 1950."

Iron Ore: What Recession?

Iron ore prices have been green in 18 of the last 23 trading sessions. It's pretty extraordinary to see prices run so hot amid downbeat data from China:

• Steel production in October hit a 5-year low

• Iron ore prices have pushed steel margins to near all-time low (i.e. steel mills are not incentivised to produce more)

• China house prices fell the most in eight years in October

• China housing starts are sitting around 15 year lows

There's no doubt a lot of expectations for stimulus and we've started to see a few trickle through. On Tuesday, the first major Chinese builder reached a restructuring agreement to overhaul its debt. Shares in Sunac jumped as much as 21% to a two-month high.

Fortescue (ASX: FMG) is within an arms reach of all-time highs and trading at levels similar to when iron ore prices were US$200 a tonne back in July 2021. I guess there's two ways to look at this:

• Half full: If iron ore is trading at US$130 a tonne with the above economic data. What will things look like when these data points bottom and begin to turn?

• Half empty: Iron ore and miners are running into areas of clear resistance. They need to take a breather at the very least.

Fortescue weekly chart (Source: TradingView)

ASX corporate actions occurring today:

• Trading ex-div: Nufarm (NUF) – $0.05, US Student Housing REIT (USQ) – $0.005 

• Dividends paid: Brickworks (BKW) – $0.42

• Listing: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 7:35 pm: RBA Bullock Speech

• 12:30 am: US Durable Goods Orders