Morning Wrap: ASX 200 flat, Nasdaq approaches record close + Woolworths, Pilbara Minerals quarterlies

ASX 200 futures are trading 7 points lower, down 0.08%, as of 8:30 am AEDT.

Major US benchmarks finished mixed overnight ahead of Alphabet earnings, US job openings dip to the lowest level since March 2021, Pilbara Minerals reports a mixed 1Q25 performance and Spark New Zealand downgrades its full-year outlook again.

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 relatively unchanged, off best levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks finished mixed, with strength from Big Tech offset by weakness from pretty much everywhere else  

• Still waiting – No major directional drivers in today’s session, the market continues to wait for Magnificent 7 earnings plus a steady flow of macro data over the next three days (GDP, inflation and NFPs)

• US job openings printed well-below consensus and to the lowest level since March 2021, supporting Fed rate cut prospects and pushing yields slightly lower 

• Corporate America signals potential earnings bottom, boosting hopes for broader stock rally (BBG)

• Investors showing limited demand for protection against big tech post-earnings selloffs (BBG)

STOCKS

• Dr Horton misses Q4 earnings, sees downbeat 2025 sales on buyer uncertainty (RT)

• Boeing raises US$21bn in massive share sale to shore up finances (BBG)

• Goldman and Morgan Stanley CEOs both expect more dealmaking in 2025 (RT)

• BP reports lowest quarterly profit since pandemic amid oil price slump (FT)

• Volkswagen plans to close at least three factories in Germany (BBG)

• HSBC books 10% profit rise for third quarter, launches $3B buyback (RT)

• Adidas reports Q3 China sales growth of 9% while North American sales down 7% (RT)

CENTRAL BANKS

• ECB Vice President de Guindos says disinflation process on track, but outlook clouded by substantial risks (BBG)

POLITICS & GEOPOLITICS

• Xi urges Biden to alter US stance on Taiwan independence amid rising tensions (RT)

• NATO confirms deployment of North Korean troops in Russia, may broaden Ukraine's use of US weapons (RT)

• Hezbollah names Naim Qasem as new leader after Nasrallah assassination (BBG)

ECONOMY

• US September JOLTs job openings printed 7.44m vs. 7.9m consensus, the lowest level since March 2021 and suggesting further loosening of labour markets (RT)

• China plans massive debt issuance to address local government risks and boost economy (RT)

• German consumer confidence highest since April 2022, but rebound seen vulnerable (RT)

• Spain to outpace US as fastest-growing major economy, driven by immigration and tourism (FT)

• New Zealand job growth stalls, signalling weakening labor market (BBG)

ASX TODAY

• Australian Ethical and Future Super exploring merger (AFR)

• Aspen Group seeks to sell $33.6m Eureka Group shares at 61 cents a piece, sources say Aspen has refused to stump up for Eureka’s equity raising (AFR)

• Bega Cheese reiterates FY25 guidance at AGM, says on track to achieve FY28 EBITDA target of $250m plus (BGA)

• CBA sells 10% stake in Vietnam International Commercial Bank of $320m, transaction to lift CET1 ratio by 7 bps (CBA)

• Gold Road reports Q3 Gruyere gold production (attributable to GOR) of 32.5koz vs. 38.0koz consensus, AISC of A$2,551 vs. A$2,197 consensus (GOR)

• Pilbara Minerals reports 1Q25 spodumene production 220.1kt vs. 203.8kt consensus, costs of A$606/t vs. $696/t consensus, realised prices much lower than expected, cuts FY25 P850 guidance to 700-740,000 dmt from prior 800-840,000 dmt (PLS)

• Spark New Zealand downgrades FY EBITDAI outlook by 3.5% at midpoint, cuts capex guidance, lowers dividend guidance to 25 cps (from 27.5 cps), says review of non-core assets underway (SPK)

• Star Entertainment reports 1Q25 adjusted EBITDA loss of $18m amid deterioration in operating performance from a challenging environment and continued implementation of mandatory carded play and cash limits (SGR)

• Vault Minerals mulls move to spend $200m to buy out its gold hedge book, a move that would likely provide a lift to its share price (The Aus)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Quarterlies galore – Big volume of quarterlies. At a glance, several mining names are missing/cutting production expectations or guidance. Pilbara reported a relatively positive result, with lower-than-expected costs, lower capex and lower unit cost guidance, possibly offset by weaker-than-expected realised prices. Its interesting to see a name like Resolute Mining (RSG) report a poor quarterly on Tuesday, the stock gapped down 4.1% as the market opened, only to finish 1.1% higher. Perhaps a trend to look out for.

• Homebuilders – Could see some negative flow for local names like James Hardie and Reliance Worldwide after earnings miss from US-listed Dr Horton. The company reported a broad Q4 miss and guided to lower margins (1Q25 ests 22.5% vs. 4Q24 23.6%)

BROKER MOVES

• A2 Milk upgraded to Hold from Sell with $6.10 target (BP)

• Ansell downgraded to Hold from Outperform; target up to $33.75 from $32.20 (CLSA)

• Bluescope Steel downgraded to Underperform from Hold; target cut to $18 from $20 (CLSA)

• Bluescope Steel upgraded to Equal-weight from Underweight; target up to $22 from $18.50 (MS)

• Sandfire Resources downgraded to Neutral from Outperform; target up to $10.20 from $10 (MQG)

• Vicinity Centres upgraded to Neutral from Sell; target up to $2.24 from $2.15 (UBS)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Wed 30 Oct: Hotel Property Investments (HPI) – 1.84%, Acrow  (ACF) – 2.71%

• Thu 31 Oct: Imperial Pacific (IPC) – 4.83%, London City Equities (LCE) – 1.88%, Autosports (ASG) – 3.31%

• Fri 1 Nov: Pengana Global Private Credit Trust (PCX) – 0.57%

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Turners Automotive (TRA)

• Earnings: Champion Iron (CIA) 

• Listing: None

• AGMs: Bega Cheese (BGA), BHP (BHP), Data#3 (DTL), Dexus (DXS)

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 10:30 am: Australia Monthly CPI (Sep)

• 4:30 pm: France GDP Growth (Q3)

• 7:00 pm: Germany GDP Growth (Q3)

• 8:00 pm: Eurozone GDP Growth (Q3)

• 10:30 pm: US GDP Growth (Q3)

• 11:00 pm: Germany Inflation Rate (Oct)