Morning Wrap: ASX 200 continues to bounce, S&P 500 logs first two-day gain since February

ASX 200 futures are up 60pts (+0.76%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• S&P 500 logged its first two-day gain since its 19-Feb all-time high, showing some early signs of stabilisation

• Better-than-expected Chinese economic data (retail sales, fixed asset investment, housing prices and industrial production) sent commodities and miners sharply higher

• New Hope reports 1H25 results, Hanwha takes a 9.9% stake in Austal

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 higher but off best levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks finished higher but off best levels

• S&P 500 marked its first two-day gain since its record close on 19-Feb

• Market narrative remains relatively unchanged, the continued rally today largely on still-oversold conditions and lack of tariff headlines

• Prior 24 instances when stocks have fallen at least 10% from a record (but avoided a bear market) have taken an average eight months to claw back to new highs (BBG)

• Mag-7 cheapest in months, but still trading at 26x earnings vs. the 19x trough that marked the lows in 2018 and 2022 (BBG)

• Money manager boost bearish bets against gasoline and diesel due to concerns around trade policy (BBG

• RBC cuts S&P 500 year-end target on economic growth concerns (YH)

• Trump's moves boost overseas stocks, with US equities now trailing major markets in Europe and China (NYT)

• Goldman Sachs cut oil price target for 2025 and 2026 on expectations for slower GDP growth, increased OPEC supply (YH)

STOCKS

• Oracle in talks with White House over TikTok deal amid concerns (PLT)

• Berkshire Hathaway raises stakes in Japan's trading houses (BBG)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Powell faces balancing act of reassuring investors about economy, while showing readiness to act (BBG)

• BoE poised to hold rates amid inflation concerns (BBG)

• SNB faces "coin-toss" decision on interest-rate cut (BBG)

TRUMP

• Reciprocal tariffs and sector-wide tariffs coming on 2-Apr (BBG)

• Trade war with Europe puts $9.5tn at risk with damage likely to spread beyond whiskey and Champagne (WSJ)

• Trump signs funding bill to avert a US government shutdown (NBC)

• Trump to meet oil executives at White House this week (BBG)

ECONOMY

• China reports better-than-expected Jan-Feb economic data, pointing to signs of economic stabilisation (BBG)

  • Retail sales up 4.0% year-on-year, best reading in two months

  • Industrial production up 5.9% vs. 5.3% ests

  • House Price index -4.8%, up from -5.0% in the previous month

  • Fixed asset investment up 4.1% vs. 3.6% ests

• China unveils plan to boost incomes and consumption (BBG)

• US February retail sales up 0.2% month-on-month vs. 0.7% ests (CNBC)

ASX TODAY

• Dexus Property CEO Ross Du Fernet discloses sale of ~38k shares, beneficially owns 345k shares after the transaction (DXS)

• Hanwha seeking to buy 9.9% stake in Austal for $4.45 per share (16% premium to last close), term sheet says Hanwha has no intention of gaining control for now (AFR)

• New Hope reports 35% 1H25 NPAT growth to $340.3m, fully franked interim dividend of 19 cps, launched up to $100m share buyback and reaffirms FY25 guidance (NHC)

• Findi notes National Payments Corporation of India approval for increase in ATM interchange fees, NPAT impact in FY26-27 expected to be in excess of $5.5m and $10m respectively (FND)

• SmartPay receives potential second non-binding indicative proposal from Shift4 Payments (The Aus)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Commodity strength: Very strong session for most commodity-related stocks on Monday and overnight. Notable gainers from yesterday include MIN (+11.5%), PLS (+7.1%), FMG (+4.1%), PDN (+3.7%) and BHP (+2.4%). The move was largely attributed to the positive China data and oversold bounce conditions. It will be interesting to see if the sector can continue to trend higher. Gold also cracked US$3,000 this morning (although lower in Aussie dollar terms).

BROKER MOVES

• Endeavour Group downgraded to Neutral from Buy; target cut to $4.50 from $5.10 (GS)

• Woolworths upgraded to Outperform from Neutral; target remains $30.80 (MQG)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Tue 18 Mar: Nido Education (NDO) – $0.058, NZME (NZM) – $0.054, Reece (REH) – $0.065, Seek (SEK) – $0.24

• Wed 19 Mar: Auckland International Airport (AIA) – $0.056, Brisbane Broncos (BBL) – $0.02, Briscoe Group Australasia (BGP) – $0.091, CTI Logistics (CLX) – $0.05, Enero Group (EGG) – $0.015, Genesis Energy (GNE) – $0.064, Helia Group (HLI) – $0.69, LGI (LGI) – $0.012, Macmahon Holdings (MAH) – $0.006, Peet (PPC) – $0.028, Pepper Money (PPM) – $0.071, Perenti (PRN) – $0.03, Shriro Holdings (SHM) – $0.02.

• Thu 20 Mar: The a2 Milk Company (A2M) – $0.065, Cochlear (COH) – $2.15, Earlypay (EPY) – $0.001, K & S Corporation (KSC) – $0.08, Kelsian Group (KLS) – $0.08, Service Stream (SSM) – $0.025, Spark New Zealand (SPK) – $0.108, Supply Network (SNL) – $0.32, Tourism Holdings Rentals (THL) – $0.02

• Fri 21 Mar: Latitude Group (LFS) – $0.03, Vita Life Sciences (VLS) – $0.065

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Amcor (AMC), Challenger (CGF), Contact Energy (CEN), Eureka Group (EGH), Johns Lyng Group (JLG) and Sequoia Financial Group (SEQ)

• Listing: None

• Earnings: New Hope (NHC)

• AGMs: Westgold Resources (WGX)

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 11:30 pm: Canada Inflation (FEB)

• 11:30 pm: US Building Permits, Housing Starts (FEB)