Morning Wrap: ASX 200 at all-time highs, S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new record, Graphite and Lithium stocks in focus

ASX 200 futures are up 32pts (+0.37%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

In a nutshell:

• S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit another fresh all-time high

• No major changes in narratives for Fed outlook and tariffs overnight

• Keep and eye out for lithium and graphite stocks

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 trending higher, closed near best levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks finished broadly higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both posting fresh all-time highs

• Solid breadth with the Equal-weight S&P 500 outperforming the official benchmark by 28 bps, Russell 2000 also posted strong gains

• No major changes in narratives for Fed rate cut outlook and tariffs, though stronger-than-expected US retail sales data and positive takeaways from TSMC, Pepsi and United Airlines likely the drivers of upside

• Trump's Fed attacks rattle markets, raising concerns over independence and inflation outlook (BBG)

• Hedge funds bet against US small caps fearing trade war impacts on growth (BBG)

STOCKS

• Amazon cut jobs in its Amazon Web Services cloud computing unit on Thursday (RT)

• Uber invests $300m in Lucid, plans to launch robotaxi fleet (FT)

• PepsiCo beats estimates, shares surge 7.4% as international growth and higher-protein offerings bolster sales (BBG)

• TSMC profit jumps 60% amid strong AI demand, US tariffs cloud future outlook (RTs)

• Meta and Google build global subsea cable network, transforming internet infrastructure (CNBC)

• Anthropic eyes ~US$100bn valuation, fueled by investor interest in AI startup (BBG)

• Netflix shares up 1.9% as Q2 earnings beat Wall Street’s lofty estimates, raises full-year outlook (BBG)

• United Airlines raises profit outlook, projects strong finish as travel rebounds (BBG))

• Swatch Group shares rise as company sees luxury watch demand bottoming out in China (BBG)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Fed Governor Kugler favors holding interest rates steady, cites tariffs' impact on rising inflation (BBG)

• SF Fed's Daly sees two rate cuts still reasonable, cautions against waiting too long (BBG)

• Trump says he won't fire Powell, but doesn't rule it out amid Fed rate frustration (BBG)

TARIFFS & GEOPOLITICS

• EU simplifies its auto tariff proposal, offering to drop 10% duty if US moves its tariffs below 20% (FT)

• US to levy a 93.5% tariff on Chinese graphite, a key battery component (BBG)

• Trump says US nears trade deal with India, EU possible, but Canada uncertain (RT)

• EU prepares potential tariffs on US services amid trade talk tensions, export controls considered (FT)

• Trump hints at new trade deals with Japan, India after Indonesia accord announcement (BBG)

ECONOMY

• US retail sales surge 0.6% month-on-month in June vs. consensus for a 0.2% increase and 0.9% decrease in May, growth driven by categories including miscellaneous stores (+1.8%), car and parts (+1.2%) and clothing (+0.9%) (BBG)

• Japan's debt soars, election looms, fueling debate over potential credit rating downgrade (BBG)

• UK unemployment rises to 4.7%, payrolls shrink, but job losses smaller than feared (BBG)

• Australia's unemployment rate rises to 4.3%, increasing bets on August rate easing (RT)

ASX TODAY

Check out our Live Blog for the latest coverage and analysis for company announcements, market movements and economic updates.

• Insignia Financial to receive binding offer from CC Capital ‘any day’, offer likely to be above $4.00 per share (The Aus)

• Yancoal reports Q2 attributable saleable coal production of 9.4Mt (-1% YoY), run-of-mine (100% basis) coal production up 12% to 17.0Mt, FY25 guidance towards the upper end of guidance (YAL)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Graphite: The US-China graphite tariff drove a sharp uptick in overseas graphite names (small cap names I've never heard of like Westwater Resources, Graphite One etc. all up 10-25%). This could drive some positive flow for local names like Syrah Resources.

• Lithium: Local lithium names surged in the last hour of trade on Thursday, with Pilbara Minerals up 1.9% from session lows of -5.8%. China has ordered Zangge Mining to immediately cease production at its 11 kt LCE Qarhan brine project in Qinghai for “illegal mining”, marking a rare direct government shutdown and signalling a tougher stance on lithium resource compliance. The supply loss represents ~1% of global lithium output, but may strength bullish sentiment.

BROKER MOVES

• Endeavour Group downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight; target cut to $4.60 from $5.10 (MS)

• Medibank downgraded to Neutral from Overweight but target up to $5.10 from $4.80 (JPM)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Fri 18 Jul: None

• Mon 21 Jul: None

• Tue 22 Jul: Finbar Group (FRI) – $0.02

• Wed 23 Jul: None

• Thu 24 Jul: None

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: None

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: Tali Resources (TR2)

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 9:30 am: Japan Inflation (Jun)

• 10:30 pm: US Building Permits, Housing Starts (Jun)

• 12:00 am: US Consumer Sentiment (Jul)