How does the ASX 200 perform in August?
August has a positive lean for the ASX 200. But reporting season volatility can swing outcomes well beyond historical averages.
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Source: Shutterstock
KEY POINTS
- Since 1980, the ASX 200 has averaged a 0.71% gain in August and finished higher 61% of the time, making it the fourth best-performing month.
- On a total return basis since 2001, August screens even better with an average gain of 0.97% and a positive finish 72% of the time.
- Recent Augusts have undershot those averages as price action, even for the most stable and slow-moving stocks, has become increasingly volatile during reporting season.
August is a fairly positive month for the S&P/ASX 200, ahead of the seasonally challenging months of September and October.
Since 1980, the ASX 200 has averaged a 0.71% gain in August and finished higher 61% of the time. This ranks it as the fourth best-performing month and equal fifth for positive returns.
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Source: Market Index
Last month, the ASX 200 climbed 2.26% to a near five-month high. This was all thanks to a clutch three-day rally from 27–29 July, when the index gained 3.0%. That left July returns relatively in-line with historical averages of 2.13% and higher 72% of the time.
Our S&P/ASX 200 Total Returns data only goes back to 2001. On that basis, August has averaged a 0.97% gain and finished higher 72% of the time.
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Source: Market Index
The most recent Augusts have performed below historical averages.
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Source: Market Index
Here comes reporting season!
Volatility has increased with every passing reporting season. Nowadays, a 5–10% move in either direction is almost normal, even for the most stable and slow-moving stocks. The heightened volatility we're likely to see this month should flow through to the broader index, and possibly why the most recent Augusts have deviated from historical averages.
Here are some of the wildest moves from February's reporting season.
CBA (11-Feb): Shares rallied 6.8%, then another 5.4% the next day, after reporting a solid 1H26 beat, supported by strong lending growth, resilient revenues and low loan losses.
BHP (17-Feb): Shares soared 4.7% to fresh all-time highs after the 1H26 result came in slightly ahead of expectations at the earnings level, alongside a better-than-expected interim dividend on a higher payout ratio.
Woolworths (25-Feb): Shares surged 12.9% after 1H26 earnings topped market expectations, as improved sales momentum in Australian Food and disciplined cost control lifted margins. The trading update covering the first seven weeks of the new half was also well above analyst expectations. It was Woolworths' largest one-day gain on record.
While it's good to know August tends to have a positive lean, reporting season volatility could easily swing outcomes well above or below historical averages, and even more so for your portfolios.
